Can Sony get 50% market share for Blu-ray this year?

Maybe that price cut in Blu-ray players is coming sooner than we think because Digitimes is reporting that Sony has set some very ambitious goals for Blu-ray in 2008. And by ambitious I'm talking a 50-50 split with DVD.

The short article, which carries the headline, "Sony looks to 50% global market share for its Blu-ray products in 2008," says that "Sony will offer Blu-ray Disc (BD) devices in a wide range of product lines and prices and aims to increase the global market share of its BD products from 20 percent currently to 50 percent by the end of 2008."

It also summarizes some remarks that Sony president and electronics CEO Ryoji Chubachi made recently at a press conference in Taipei.

DVD and BD currently account for about 80 percent and 20 percent, respectively, of global demand for movie discs, Chubachi indicated. The new BD devices to be offered by Sony include models integrating an HD LCD TV with BD recording functionality, Chubachi pointed out.

The reporter then adds:

"Sony has relied mainly on the PlayStation 3 (PS3) to promote BD, and sales of the game console will increase along with the offering by top Hollywood studios of new BD movies, Chubachi noted. However, Sony will extend its BD promotion from the current focus on the PS3 and BD players/recorders to IT devices, Chubachi pointed out."

Perhaps something was lost in the translation, but 50 percent seems ridiculous at this point, especially with most Blu-ray players still costing north of $400. Even the 80-20 figure doesn't seem right, but maybe I'm too North American focused. What do you guys think? Am I incorrect, is Mr. Chubachi, or is the Digtimes reporter just not telling the story correctly?

[keith.r.benedict]

I agree. Players will have to come down a significant amount and their DVD playback will have to improve significantly over the current crop of Bluray players. Even people I know who have plenty of money to spend on extras (including at least one person who has well over $20,000 invested in his hometheater) aren't impressed enough with Bluray to spend upwards of $400 for the modest improvements Bluray has to offer over decent upconverting DVD players.

I think Sony would be wise to stop digging Bluray's grave by keeping player prices artificially high. Otherwise, Bluray will become the next Laserdisc.

[LcdGreg]

Wow, maybe by the end of the year I will be able to record from my dvr to discs so I can keep my movies forever.

[HooHaa]

I agree with the above post. And I find it hard to believe the 80/20 figure as well. I have quite a few technophile friends and not one of them has - or is thinking of getting - a Bluray player until the price comes into line with that of a DVD player.

[Ksal005]

WOW. What was the Sony President smoking? Whatever it is, I want some. 80/20? Where did that number surface?

50-50 is not very realistic at all. I'm wanting a Blu-Ray player but the prices and it's buggy SW/HW do not justify the purchase. Not to mention that BR has many lame movies. Hopefully, the studios can change that soon but they sure are dragging their feet?????

[AnthonyNYC]

Sony is playing with media to help try and sell the format, what people need to realize is with billions of DVD players out there, 1 % of the DVD market share would be more than all BD players and PS# sold to date combined.
Those figures just make no sense at all.

[albizzia]

The 20% share of BRD comes mainly from a few very rich videophiles building up their video library. The average consumer can't afford it.

BluRay won't get 50% of disks or players until the price drops waay down. That includes the high price of HD-TV sets, as few would buy a BluRay player without it. Problem is, Sony has little motivation to drop prices now that HD-DVD dropped out, and Sony needs cash. Maybe in 3 or 4 years...

[DCBRONCO]

Just glad to see Carnoy saying Sony will fail at something. It must be review time.