Don't expect new HDTV technologies anytime soon
Even though news sites are touting the eventual release of new HDTV technologies and calling them the saviors we've been waiting for, the simple fact is they're not anywhere close. And to make matters worse, many of these are nothing more than proofs of concept that have no marketability. In other words, don't start trashing your plasmas and LCDs just yet because they'll be around for quite a while.
On Monday, I had the opportunity to interview Bob Perry, Panasonic's senior vice president for its display division, for the next episode of my CNET Digital Home podcast. During the interview, I asked him what the future of the HDTV market looks like and what we should expect.
Much to my chagrin and certainly some of those who will listen to the interview, he said that the chances of a new HDTV technology hitting store shelves anytime soon are slim. According to Perry, we're still at least a decade away from the next real HDTV technology that could actually supplant LCDs and to a lesser extent, plasmas.
Suffice it to say, it's a sad day for those of us who want to see the next big thing.
According to Perry, the HDTV business works in ways that are much different than any other tech industry. He contends that new technologies take about five to eight years just to develop into practical use in your home and another five to eight years to come down in price far enough for people to actually buy them. And to make matters worse, the clock has only started on one technology.
OLED should be the future. In case you haven't kept up on HDTV technologies (and why would you? New ones crop up and die every week), OLED does something that no other current technology can do--it creates such a small footprint that it's conceivable that in the future, we may be able to pull our TVs down from the ceiling much like a window shade. In other words, it's extremely thin and quite flexible--two attributes that most companies, most importantly, Sony, are using to their advantage.
And while you may have heard of other technologies like laser TV and even SED, Perry contends that most of those schemes are nothing more than pie-in-the-sky ideas that have little chance of beating OLEDs to the market.
But I digress. The major issue described by Perry was not that OLEDs will eventually replace plasmas and LCDs, but that LCDs and plasmas will be around for at least another decade with not one competitor. Sure, some believe that new technologies may make it to market sooner and that certainly is a possibility, but the chances are quite slim.
But if we know that LCDs and plasmas will be around for much longer than some expected, what does the future of plasma HDTVs look like? As it stands, many companies are moving to the LCD side and Panasonic is left on an island producing plasmas of its own and supplying companies like Pioneer with its plasma technology. Of course, Panasonic did invest billions in its new LCD plant where it hopes to capitalize on both technologies, but virtually every other company is counting plasma out except the popular tech company.
The reason why is actually quite simple. Historically speaking, plasmas displayed the best picture on screens that were normally larger than about 42 inches, while LCDs performed best at screen sizes that were smaller. But in recent years, LCD technology has caught up on larger screen sizes and the cost of a 42-inch LCD is quickly beating the price of a 42-inch plasma.
And according to most industry insiders, it doesn't look like LCD's rise to the top will slow down. Realizing this, what does the future of plasmas really look like? Will it become the safe haven for screen sizes that stretch well into the 80-inch-plus range or will it quietly phase out?
So far, no one knows. But if you look at where the industry is headed and its constant attempts to reduce prices while increasing quality, the chances of plasma rising to the top are slim. That said, LCDs have never been more popular and as the costs continue to dwindle and the quality continues to rise, there's no reason to suggest we will have two HDTV technologies forever.
If I had to guess, look for plasmas to die out just before OLED hits store shelves and for both LCD and plasma to be gone in about 10 to 15 years. Until then, enjoy your current technology.
Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
The innovations we can expect to see over the next decade are most likely to be in design refinement and manufacturing cost efficiency. Besides that, look for different cases and new applications for this kind of product (ie. placement, grid->touch capability).
The highest-resolution HD monitors currently available offer 1,080 lines of resolution in a progressive-scan format - also known as 1080p video. These screens have 1,920 x 1,080 pixels and are theoretically capable of displaying every pixel of the highest-resolution HD broadcasts. These sets are sometimes called ?ultra HD? as a marketing term, but in fact are part of the current HDTV standard.
True ultra HD is so named because it provides a video resolution containing 16 times as many pixels as current HD. Whereas HDTV uses 1,080 lines of resolution, ultra HD contains 4,320. Ultra HD uses 7,680 x 4,320 pixels in a widescreen aspect ratio of 16x9, making for a total of approximately 33 million pixels (33 megapixels). Ultra HD also offers improved sound quality: a 22.2 channel sound system reproduces 24 different channels of audio in three vertical layers of speakers, compared to currently available surround sound systems that use 5 or 6 channels.
Ultra HD was developed by a Japanese public broadcast company and research group called NHK Science and Technical Research Laboratories. Their aim in designing ultra HD is to present images and sound realistic enough to give viewers the sensation of being part of the scene - one reason the ultra HD format is four times as high and four times as wide as HD. One screen built to demonstrate ultra HD spans 400 inches (10,160 mm). This provides viewers with a field of view perspective of about 100 degrees, compared to 30 degrees on commercially available screens. It is due to come out first in movie theaters in about 20 years. The current HD standard was in testing since 1962 at the NHK labs in Japan.
The prices will drop once they begin mass production of the OLEDs... not to forget that Sony products tend to have a premium price tag.
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by C433Z
April 23, 2008 5:41 PM PDT
- ah man, OLEDs look so good though. i've never seen one but 1,000,000:1 contrast ratio sounds amazing. I've seen a pioneer kuro and that's only 20,000:1.
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