Analyst: Apple on track to sell 45 million iPhones next year

For Apple to sell 45 million iPhones next year, it would have to quadruple its sales from 2008.

Yes, that's more than a bit optimistic. The analyst who originally made that sales prediction for Apple back before the phone was even launched is at it again, though, on Monday explaining how he thinks it could happen.

(Credit: Apple)

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster insists--despite consensus that his prediction is entirely overeager--that Apple will do so by introducing a 3G version of the iPhone in the second or third quarter of this year, as well as a lower-price version of the device in the range of $200 to $300 by the beginning of next year.

Munster also predicts that making the iPhone available in new countries will double the market for the device this year and next, and that the addition of new games and features like remote purchases will add up to 45 million.

Sure, the iPhone is a popular device, but quadrupling sales? Digest this prediction with the usual grain of salt.

[ibeetle]

Wait... I thought we were talking about this year?

So I am reading along...<br /><br />...as well as a lower-priced version of the device in the range of <br />$200 to $300 by the beginning of next year.<br /><br />and... wait... next year?... how is lowering the price in '09 going to <br />boost sales in 2008?

[jimmyhoops]

Read the headline...

The title clearly states..."NEXT YEAR". For the savvy tracker, sales <br />for 2008 are estimated at 10MM units based on orders placed for <br />hardware.<br /><br />Next time, read the headline before making assumptions about <br />when you'll be able to purchase a more reasonably priced iPhone.<br /><br />Wishful thinking...which may come true sometime in 2009.

[john55440]

The Economy

The iPhone is an unnecessary consumer luxury item, and the poor economy will slow it's sales.<br /><br />The economy is so bad, that Consumer Confidence is at it's lowest level since 1992, and the economy isn't going to get better any time soon.<br /><br />When people are having a hard time paying their mortgages, paying higher gas prices, paying higher heating price, paying higher food prices, paying higher medical costs...the last thing they need is an iPhone with data contract.

[shycelticwitch]

Economy schnonomy

Was down in the "latino" area of Tampa last week, I saw dozens <br />of illegal immigrants walking around with iPhones, iPods, and all <br />the other latest electronic gadgets. The AMERICAN economy <br />might be suffering, but in the United States of Mexico there are <br />plenty of illegal socialist squatters here who will fill the demand <br />for the items we can no longer afford because they have our <br />jobs...<br /><br />And for the record... how come these immigrants are also not <br />complaining about the price of gas, groceries, etc.... do they <br />know something we don't?

[jimmyhoops]

The estimate is for world-wide sales... domestic sales are only 1 component

Yes, there is no question that the U.S. economy is in decline or possibly a recession which may impact <br />domestic sales to a degree. But the number estimated is based on world-wide sales. In addition, lowering the <br />retail price by 25-50% (at the $200.00 price point) will help off-set declines in sales by current retail <br />constraints.<br /><br />So, while you may have a point, your point doesn't take into account world markets or the possibility of <br />dramatically reduced suggested retail prices as an overall strategy for greatly increased world-wide sales <br />totals.<br /><br />With that said, I think the four fold increase is entirely possible by late '09.

[johnalphonse-22167694933540745]

Newness Exponential Factor

I believe it's not so outrageous a statement at the historical point on the curve where the iPhone is presently. It just came out ten minutes ago, figuratively speaking, and exponential growth is not so uncommon in early-stage product success as word just starts to spread. I mean, for example, quadrupling 100 sales is much easier than quadrupling 1,000,000. It may be tough to increase sales fourfold in one year after market saturation, but "10 minutes" isn't much time to do much saturating...