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February 27, 2008 10:26 AM PST

Wagering on when iTunes will top Wal-Mart in music sales

by Greg Sandoval
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Hey techies, don't bother putting money down on whether the Celtics are the future NBA champions. Not when you can place a bet on Steve Jobs.

A gaming company called Bodog is taking wagers on when Apple's iTunes Store will surpass Wal-Mart as the top U.S. music retailer.

CNET News.com reported on Tuesday that research firm NPD Group is predicting that Apple will emerge as the largest U.S. music retailer sometime in 2008. NPD also reported that Apple has recently leapfrogged over Best Buy and Target in music sales.

It should be noted that neither CNET nor I promote gambling--but what's the Bodog line, you ask? Well, for the sake of disseminating information to the gamblers out there who would actually understand:

Yes -240 (5/12) and No +165 (18-11).

Not surprisingly, Bodog is based in Antigua, and executives were reluctant to do phone interviews. Take that however you will.

According to the Bodoglife site, the company also operates a record label (Bodog Music). It has a TV production division that produces reality TV series such as Bodog Fight.

Rules for wagering are as follows: "If it is not officially announced by December 31, 2008, that iTunes has surpassed Wal-Mart as the No. 1 U.S. music retailer," according to the wagering board on Bodog's Web site, "all 'No' wagers will be graded the winner. Max. $50."

Greg Sandoval covers media and digital entertainment for CNET News. He is a former reporter for The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times. E-mail Greg, or follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/sandoCNET.
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Another Betting Site
by brad.stewart February 28, 2008 1:18 PM PST
We have a prediction market going on for this as well at RealityMarkets.com. At the moment people are predicting that it will happen in 2008.
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