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February 26, 2008 2:35 PM PST

Google: A bellwether or giant losing its grip?

by Jim Kerstetter

We interrupt this scheduled lashing of Yahoo to ask a question about the company that's been putting a whuppin' on Jerry Yang & Co. over the last few years: Are you OK?

Google shares dropped 4.57 percent Tuesday largely on new ComScore numbers that show flat year-over-year growth in U.S. paid-click performance in January. It's an abrupt turn from the 25 percent year-over-year growth Google produced in the fourth quarter and the consistent growth Google has shown since, well, since there's been a Google. Regardless of what you think of ComScore's oft-controversial methods, this isn't good. As Henry Blodget aptly put it in Silicon Alley Insider, "Even if ComScore is only half right, this is a disaster."

Google declined to comment on the report.

Today's nearly 5 percent drop brings the search king's share price down from its 52-week high of $747.24 in November all the way to $464.19 at the end of trading Tuesday.That's just one more tidbit of bad news from Google's 52-week low, $437 per share, back in March 2007.

Google, it would seem, can't defy gravity or a bad economy more than any other company. For some, the ComScore numbers offer a fine opportunity to gloat. Others, and bless the optimists, aren't terribly worried just yet. But for most companies relying on advertising for their revenues (and who doesn't these days?), Google's bad news provides plenty of reason to fret.

Sure, it could be that Google's dominance of the ad market is waning. That would certainly be the glass-is-half-full scenario. But the more likely scenario is that Google is a bellwether for the rest of the online ad market, that everyone will struggle as the economy heads south, and that we're on the cusp of plenty more bad news.

But then I covered the first dot-com bust. I always think the glass is half empty.

Jim Kerstetter has been writing about the high-tech industry for more than 13 years, as a senior editor at PC Week, a Silicon Valley correspondent at BusinessWeek, and now an executive editor at CNET News. He moved back to Boston because he missed the Red Sox. E-mail Jim.
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The glass isn't half empty
by catch23 February 26, 2008 3:39 PM PST
nor is it half full.
Somewhere along the way, we overspent and bought a glass that is 2X too big...

which can be problematic into itself.
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Why is it
by suyts February 26, 2008 3:41 PM PST
that suddenly we're being told we have a bad economy? Look at the numbers. Quarter after quarter of continuous growth in the GDP. Inflation is low. Interests rates are even lower. Unemployment is hovering at about 5%. Sure, the housing market is taking a beating but it should. Lenders lent money to people that couldn't pay it back. Houses were selling at an ungodly prices. Apparently, we had too many viewers of "Flip that house". Stock market was over inflated and corrected itself. Some tech companies were over inflated more than others (Google and Apple)and had to take a correction. Nothing to jump out of a building for. Everything is fine. Google and Apple will be fine too. Hopefully home lenders and borrowers will be more prudent in the future and everything will be rotating on its proper axis.
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"Hopefully home lenders and borrowers...
by Commander_Spock February 26, 2008 6:01 PM PST
... will be more prudent in the future and everything will be rotating on its proper axis". Sure, and this would be particularly so as the cost of imported oil (around which the economy revolves) declines dramatically; or, will the imported oil prices climb even higher!!!
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And
by t8 February 26, 2008 7:44 PM PST
the price of OS/2 Wart goes up while it's performance compared with Linux goes down.
Reply to this comment
Which Spread Sheet; and,...
by Commander_Spock February 26, 2008 8:49 PM PST
... what formulas are you using? It looks like you have created a new "equation" quite recently. LOL!
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