Digital downloads will be Blu-ray's downfall

With the fall of HD DVD, Blu-ray has assumed the throne as the next format of choice, but its reign will be short-lived.

Blu-ray won't enjoy the same decade-long dominance DVD did after it succeeded VHS. But that's not because there will be other challenger physical disc formats. Rather, instead of buying discs from Amazon, Best Buy or Wal-Mart, people will begin getting their entertainment in the form of digital downloads in larger volumes.

The studios backing Blu-ray already know this. At an HDTV confab last fall, Warner Bros.' vice president of high-definition media development likened HD packaged media to a set of training wheels for digital downloads.

"We can use HD discs to train consumers to move into digital, but it's a transition," said Warner Bros.' Dan Silverberg. "Downloaded content will come, but the consumer will get quicker tutorial into video-on-demand, etc., by owning a Blu-ray player or HD DVD."

It'll happen sooner than they think. With a growing number of alternatives to packaged media, combined with the relatively high prices of Blu-ray players and discs vs. inexpensive, so-called upconverting DVD players, Blu-ray will likely be the last major disc format you'll ever buy.

Netflix, a purveyor of rental discs, obviously saw the writing on the wall, instituting its Watch It Now feature last year. Amazon.com, which sells plenty of packaged media, has its own Unbox video download service.

The likely reason? Overall consumer spending on DVDs and high-definition discs (HD DVD and Blu-ray), both purchase and rental, has been steadily decreasing since its peak at $24.5 billion in 2004. According to the Digital Entertainment Group, a trade group that represents all disc makers, spending last year amounted to $23.7 billion.

To the chagrin of disc patent holders, discs are not the only way to consumer high-definition media now. There are so many other ways to get content: Set-top boxes are getting far more sophisticated and will continue to do so in the next few years. Vudu, for instance, stepped up the video on demand option by adding more content than any of its predecessors, including the option for HD purchases and rentals. Apple recently upgraded Apple TV to include rentals--standard definition and HD--and a way to bypass the need for a PC to watch films on a living room TV. Even Microsoft's Xbox 360 game console has a download service for movies.

TiVo and other DVR makers that support cable giants like Comcast have traditional VOD options, and hard drive space will continue to expand. Netflix has its rentals available to watch right from its Web site, and watching TV shows online and for free at sites like ComedyCentral.com, Hulu.com, Joost, means you don't have to buy whole seasons of TV shows on physical discs anymore. If watching TV on a PC isn't your thing, technologies like Sony's Bravia Internet Link and Sling Media's SlingProjector bring Web video directly to the TV.

Perhaps most importantly, consumers will continue to get more and more comfortable with the idea of their library being digital. We're already there with music, and it's a relatively easy transition to make to one's movie collection. But it's also true of other things like Fandango's digital movie tickets, or even airline tickets and gift cards. We live in a world where oftentimes the value is not in the object itself, but in the digital information stored on a computer somewhere. (It's an attitude that's anathema to the likes of Disney and its studio cohorts who have always pushed the concept of personal movie collections, hence the push to upgrade to the "special edition" of older films.)

"The challenge for studios is really about convincing consumers to upgrade their libraries, (and) upconverting to 1080p (the highest resolution currently available) doesn't necessitate buying a whole new format," said Josh Martin, HD and video analyst for The Yankee Group.

People will get tired of replacing their favorite films to the trendy format of the moment. The price of the software ranging from $20 to $30 for Blu-ray discs right now will eventually drop. But digital copies costing less than $5 a pop, it's an easy decision for many.

The biggest roadblock is of course bandwidth, which causes the process to be long, painful, and ultimately not worth it for many. But that will change. Consider, for example, this scenario:

Using Fios from Verizon, it's possible to currently download several episodes of a TV show at approximately 5 megabits per second, or 625 kilobytes per second.

A 44-minute 640x360 (not high-definition) episode of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles that my colleague Declan McCullagh downloaded via iTunes is 510MB.

"It requires 193 kilobytes per second to watch live, which is easily doable on Fios barring network congestion," McCullagh points out. (Levels of compression or a change from the H.264 video codec will have different results, of course.)

Comcast customers--and there are far more of them than Fios customers--have speeds today that vary widely, but 187 kilobytes per second in real-world tests is a good estimate. Assuming a one-hour high-definition TV show (with commercials) is around 5GB, that requires 1,388,888 kilobytes per second or 1.38 megabytes per second to watch.

So Fios is about halfway there about at best, and Comcast's 100 megabit per second connection, which it promised at CES would be a reality by 2009, could pull it off.

[john55440]

"The biggest roadblock is of course bandwidth"

The bandwidth problem will be with us for many years.

[businesscontacts]

If you live outside a developed country, you'll have to wait longer

I live in Panama, and you can get 2Mbps for around $70.00 Slower speeds are cheaper, like 512K for $25<br /><br />I used to live in New York in 2003 and back then I had 3Mbs for $29.99. <br /><br />So based on these figures, downloading HD content is not in our near future. Blu-Ray will be around longer than you think.

[Penguinisto]

Bigger than the author knows...

...seriously - taking into account the constant whine of telcos over how expensive it is to build bandwidth? Now consider the stark fact that unless you live in certain Western nations (no, not including the US), sufficient bandwidth isn't even halfway guaranteed? ...for downloads that aren't even halfway equivalent to 1080p, let alone what'd due out in 5-10 years hence?<br /><br />No way, Jose.<br /><br />Also, there are benefits to physical disks that you can never get with downloaded movies... I can play a physical disc anywhere I want - computer, home entertainment system, you-name-it... DRM will handily prevent that with downloads.<br /><br />There are a whole lot of obstacles that downloads will have to overcome before they can even halfway begin to compete with physical media.<br /><br />/P

[bhushan bhaagii]

TALKBACK'S BIGGEST ROADBLOCK

Guys: This one story has 167 posts! I have been posting regularly on this forum about cnet's habit of forcing readers to click on each comment,<br />in order to read it. Cnet's editors/moderators<br />are either not reading this comment, and if they do, are choosing to ignore it. Frankly, I don't have the time to click 167 (ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY SEVEN) times to read each comment. There may be quite a few that are pithy and bang-on target, but I will have to forego that pleasure. Maybe<br />someone will take the initiative to actually<br />click-only click 167 times and see how long this exercise takes. And post your comment.<br /><br />A simple remedy lies in Cnet simply compiling and<br />putting up all posts on one page, letting readers pick and choose what they want to read. But that,<br />as the Comcast episode shows, is something that requires a different mindset, which Cnet does not seem to possess.

[tappy727]

Not only bandwidth problem, but who the heck want to pay all the extra $$$ for the faster download just so I can download movies? 1.5 Mbps works great for internet browsing.

[techned]

It depends how digital downloads attracts collectors

I'm one of those types that if I see a movie I liked or have a strong fascination for - than I want to own that movie.<br /><br />It's true - who wants to change their media library over and over again to satisfy their library needs. I have recordings of my favorite anime series which I love but it's expensive to go from VHS to DVD - I very much doubt I want to to be from DVD to blu-ray; which is why I keep a working VHS machine and plan to purchase a blu-ray device that will still stay compatible with DVD.<br /><br />Basically, I'm not against digital downloading but what I am worried about is how do I own a digital download of what I purchased and not have to worry that the licensing scheme will not prevent me from transferring that digital info of my movie to the next gen of storage media; if I bought the whole Star Wars movies pack on digital download, I want to make sure that if I store it on, say, a recordable blu-ray, that if the new tech involved crystals (like in the Superman movies), than I have the right to move that info I have on blu-ray to crystal without having to worry about copyright laws pigeon-holing me to be only able to save my download to only one type of media - what I bought, I should not have to buy again.<br /><br />Franchises like "Star Wars" and "Transformers" rely heavily on fanbase satisfaction - digital downloading media should be able to cater to those expectation that we can download our favorites without being exploited, or else it will backfire on the movie industry as much it did to the music industry when it tried to heavy hand control their content to make a buck off every download and just confine it to only one form of storage media per license.

[dt.baker]

This won't happen for a long time yet...

I agree with Erica in many ways but there are a lot of problems to overcome. Bandwidth is one but the other is format. There are so many different formats for digital media with different and incompatible DRM. If people are going to move to digital movies they are going to want to view them not just on their TV but on there PMP as well. Until we have one compatible format thats not going to happen.

[chrisemcleod]

I'm ALREADY there

We havent rented a DVD for a long time. We're already doing digital downloads only. So don't say we've got a long way to go. Maybe YOU do because you don't want to have to go to multiple sites or have long-ish download times, but many of us are already doing download only and are perfectly happy with it. :-)

[abbottpark]

Digital downloads will not replace DVDs

Your dreaming if you think that downloads will replace DVDs. The movie studios want to push this because they only want you to watch a movie a couple of times and then you would owe them more money. Its just a spinoff of the pay per view concept. Anyway the bottom line is the bandwidth is not there and won't be for a long time. What they are not telling you in this story is that we will need to be on internet2 which is still only for colleges and universities for this to happen.<br />This will take another 10 to 20 years or more.

[geezzerr11]

digital downloads will not replace DVDs

How can you be so sure? By the looks of the numbers all that is required is a doubling of the current speeds.<br />In 1969 when I started in telecom we had just improved communication speed from 110 to 300 baud (bits/sec)the next jump was to 9600 buad then to 56k bps around 1990. Now we have megabit speeds available over cable at reasonable cost in many areas, especially the urban ones. Yesterday Japan launched a satellite designed for economical megabit links. This means in 3 - 5 years all places visible to this satellite and more like it will have megabit communication speeds. What all this boils down to is it has taken roughly 35 years to improve telecom throughput by 4 orders of magnitude. DO you really think it will take 10 years to achieve a factor of 2 improvement now?<br />What is to prevent people from buying a permanent copy of a downloaded movie and storing it on their own HDD library system?

[OscarWeb]

A long time for the bandwith?

That's not necessarily true, and Internet 2 speeds are not needed. Millions of eople in Japan already enjoy 100+ megabit per second Internet connections at home, with 1 gigabit per second coming soon. Comcast is already planning to roll out 100+ megabit connections within a year, using DOCSIS 3.0.

[hunter_jc]

Its not just Bandwidth

Where on earth are we going to store those Downloaded movies?? Are we just going to buy harddrives as our storage medium now? I know its cheaper to have a harddrive than to have an optical disk as backup. I guess. I havent checked it. what do you guys think.

[Penguinisto]

Optical vs. HDD's...

I have compact music disks that I bought in early 1991, and they still play at top quality. <br /><br />The oldest working hard disk I have was built in 2003. <br /><br />--<br /><br />The latest and greatest music CD player I buy will run any music CD I bought in the past 17 (or so) years. <br /><br />I sincerely doubt that the latest mobos will actually support a c.1991 RLL 20MB hard disk w/o some really expensive adapter. <br /><br />/P

[camp88]

Where are we going to store these movies

Just over ten years ago I had the opportunity to consult a large <br />music company on the prospect of what it should do with its <br />distribution centers across the country. One of the findings that <br />my group came back with was that the world would very soon <br />be moving to downloading music, and that these large <br />distribution centers would probably best be used as server <br />farms to take the lead in this area. Well, the music business <br />client dismissed the idea out-of-hand, and one of the reasons <br />for that, at a time of 2GB hard drives, was that they didn't think <br />people had enough space to store 1,000's of songs on their <br />computers . . . and they didn't have the bandwidth to download <br />songs. The only thing that convinced them otherwise was when <br />it happened. It happened with music and it's happening now <br />with movies, the only difference is that the movie industry <br />knows that it's happening because of what happened to the <br />music industry. The irony here is that this time it's the industry <br />that knows it's coming and it's the customers who are in denial.

[pjhenry1216]

i don't know why people aren't putting 2 & 2 together...

Isn't there an experiment going on in Texas (with time-warner i believe) about charging people more money when they use more bandwidth? The ISPs promised unlimited bandwidth, but didn't expect people to actually try. Now that people are using lots of bandwidth for streaming video (youtube, etc.), they're having a hard time keeping up. The movie studios may want digital downloads, but ISPs are going to want a piece of the pie. There's talk that in the future, if the ISPs have their way, there may be as much as an extra $5-$10 per movie due to the bandwidth required to download it. Digital downloads for movies won't happen. They're too large and we physically don't have that kind of bandwidth.

[MrXavia]

UK ISP's have the right Idea

They are starting to offer video on demand boxes that connect to your ADSL router, and you don't get charged for bandwidth, rather just the fee for watching the download...<br /><br />BT offers such a service, think they were first, and I am pretty sure Tiscali are doing the same...<br /><br />I think that BT's offering doesn't even use any of your bandwidth (not 100% sure of this though), <br /><br />and from what I gather all the UK tv stations are teaming up to merge their VOD, and then license the content to SetTop box providers, <br /><br />Oh and as a plus BT's box is also a PVR with a massive HD...

[vagreville]

Pipedreams

I don't know about the rest of you, but I WANT physical media! I like the fact that I have the movie in an already backed-up state. As someone already said, what do we do with all the data we download? Buy a network data server? Come on! Face it, having media already on disc is safer and much easier to keep without the risk of it getting lost. Plus, aren't the intertubes already clogged as it is?

[christopher Todisco]

I agree

Haha, I love the Data server comment! Yes, we should download <br />movies then burn them to Blu-ray discs...wait...non HD on a blu-<br />ray disc? I wasted time and money you say? I'll just buy a Blu-ray <br />movie then. Long live physical media!

[gerrrg]

you are all right....

Just like Ted Stevens, when he made a fool of himself,...the internet is clogged, and that's why his emails were delivered late....all those damned interns streaming music.<br /><br />LOL

[nrazaq]

Bandwidth is not all, data backup & Securit

DVDs required for DATABACKPS and many othere ....<br />so Digital downloads will be Blu-ray's downfall (imp...)<br /><br />Naveed<br />Http://www.beyondweblogs.com

[paulsecic]

DVR

I've got Dishnetwork &#38; they have external drives that you can buy <br />for archiving. I'm not paying twice.

[smokified]

Don't forget about the future

What about when DVDs are no longer big enough to store the mass amounts of data that need to be backed up?

[Starfires]

Quality of Downloads Leaves Something to be Desired

One of the key features of Blu-Ray is it's increased space- 50 Gig for a double-layer vs 30 Gig for HD-DVD. If consumers were so keen on this discrepancy, why would they then settle for a 2-Gig, low-quality download, even if it is in HD? <br /><br />There is just no way that pristine-quality video, requiring many gigabytes, will be possible without disks in the near future, so they will have a massive market. I'd much rather have a CD then an MP3 and many feel the same way. <br /><br />The thing is to have Blu-Ray players in homes and disks in rental, for the switch from DVD's to take place. If they can be the dominant disk, they will have a huge market- though yes, digital downloads will cut into it.

[Olu070]

Try before speaking

1st of all files for download are not 2 gigabytes.<br />2nd I've watched HD movies from both Xbox and Apple TV. The quality is as good if not better then cable. Obviously not better then Blu-ray or HDDVD.<br /><br />For the convenience I prefer one click from the couch and watching the movie, then going to a brick and mortar store for a rental. It's the wave of the future, and it's here today. <br /><br />FYI: For a HD movie on Apple TV. I can watch it without skipping or buffering issues in less then a minute. That's with comcast cable in Boston.

[PuffyPrime]

Digital Download vs Physical Media

While I agree that digital downloads are awesome and even convenient, but the truth is that for the most part, digital downloads are the best for the rental of movies. No one wants to go out and buy yet another large capacity storage unit just to hold their content when the one they have gets full. My conclusion -- digital download for rental, physical media (DVD, Blu-Ray, etc.) for ownership.

[christopher Todisco]

Not so fast...

I agree that Blu-ray will have competition, from both DVD and <br />digital downloads, but to say Blu-ray will succumb to digital <br />downloading, that is a stretch. From what I understand, people <br />that even bother to go for Blu-ray, will go for the quality of the <br />picture. I even use that judgement when I go see a movie in the <br />theater (DSP and such). Downloading HD anything over the net <br />takes 30 seconds from FOREVER, even on a college campus at <br />Midnight. I get irritated waiting 5 minutes for a 30 second <br />movie trailer to play on 1080p! Take my father for example, <br />makes good money, lives in the suburb of a city, and has DSL. <br />His internet is very slow, reason? He's at the end of the line of <br />their connection, nothing can be done. I think a lot of people <br />are going to have these issues. Who wants to wait all day to <br />download a HD movie, or a movie that isn't even HD? DVD may <br />end up kicking Blu-Ray's butt simply because they're cheaper. <br />When I want a new release, I still buy DVD because the price, <br />and because Blu-Ray is still WAY too expensive. Physical media <br />will NEVER go away. I for one also don't want to fill up my hard <br />drives with movies, my itunes already does that :-( When Blu-<br />Ray drops in price, I"ll be all in.

[aragorn888]

Typical FUD or... ignorance?

Downloads and streaming are nice but they are quite a few years away from becoming a significant phenomenon.<br /><br />Problem with downloads are:<br /><br />1 - the quality (low at this time, possibly improving but, at least the 'streamings' are likely to stay crappy for a long, long time)<br />2 - the time needed to complete - several hours now if you have good bandwidth<br />3 - online usage charges - likely to increase if more people jump in<br />4 - local storage - you will need multi-terabyte disks and no one has them now and then... what do you do when your big disk crashes? You lose them all?<br />5 - some resistance from people who want to see their fave movies on a shelf, next to their books.<br />6 - the difficulty of transferring your download or lending it to a friend or borrowing one from a friend - and half of the movies that I watch I get from friends and I let them watch the movies that I buy.<br />7 - the Big Brother factor. You are going to have the NSA, the Chinese and maybe the Mossad, not to mention your cable of phone company and certainly your Internet service provider keeping track of what you download when and, if you are streaming, correlating that data with what you buy after you watch, whom you call and so on.<br /><br />The difference between listening to crappy iPod downloads vs. watching movies on a big screen TV is that you listen to crappy, low-fidelity music while driving or waiting in line at the Starbucks, and for a few minutes at a time.<br /><br />When you watch a movie on a big screen, you are going to sit down for a couple of hours and you SHOULD demand quality. Downloads and streamings should work well for portable video devices with 5-inch screens. It would take quite a while before they can match the quality of disk-based media.<br /><br />Considering the points above, Blu-ray's successor is going to be some memory card delivery media, possibly something that you stick right into your TV set. Expect to see them on the mass market in 7-10 years.

[vagreville]

Well put

Yeah I totally agree. I've been telling everyone that downloads won't even kill the NEXT storage medium, much less Blu-ray. As soon as the prices fall (and they will), average Joe will walk into Wal-Mart when his then dead DVD player needs replacement and he'll buy a new Blu-ray player. He'll still be able to play his standard DVDs and now he'll be able to upconvert those as well as play the new HD standard. If anything having DVDs now is going to push Blu-ray player (and media) sales in the future!

[aragorn888]

I am amazed

by the stupidity of some of the 'authors' giving so-called 'advice' at these publications.<br /><br />Anyone who can't see the difference between a high quality, disk-delivered HD movie and a DVD or some 'upconverted' or some low-quality streamed or downloaded crap or even the compressed-to-death HD movies you can watch on the Dish is either semi-blind, dishonest or simply mindlessly parroting someone else's talking points.

[bob1xxxx]

Yes I agree and you wonder if the author's works for comcast or netficks

Yeah this artical is pure bs, most people still want a hard copy of there favority film or tv series season set, because they know you one harddrive or OS failure away from loosing your library.Also the convince factor of just poping in a disk in the old dvd or blueray player watching the movie or specific episode of tv series right now (no download wait time or so so quality of overly compressed video files). My on personal contention is unless sony drastically reduces prices on blue ray players and media they run the risk of luanch the replacement for pioneers old 12" laser disk format, (look sexy but insainly overpriced),There will alway be a hard copy media system, dvd, blueray or it be the next sensablely price next gen disk system who know, but people are not going to trust there media librarys to iffy Home pc hardrives and os to crash and burn , this doesnt even cover the insane boost (nation wide not just major cities) in internet or ota bandwith necessary to support such systems the author dreams about. Hmmm comcast/charter/verizon employee or stock holder got to wonder . And I wonder why cnet let this sillyness to be published here , unless this is a ghost ad/editorial that cnet gets a bite of to lets this be published?

[timbry2000]

they have no clue

I agree. I once came here for cutting edge advice on the latest technology news. With writers like this I will be looking elsewhere. These writers have no clue.

[geezzerr11]

I am amazed

so what is your point? HD is a form of DVD. You're preaching to the choir about there being a visible difference between low quality and high quality. Did you think you'd had a epiphany of some sort?

[ikiru71]

Ownership, cost, storage, bandwidth will keep BluRay around for a while

As a movie fan I love throwing in one of my DVDs and watching my favorite scene or just letting it play in the background. Many of my DVDs I've bought used for less then $10, so why would I want to pay $3 or more everytime I want to watch my favorite movie. Even if I could own a digital download, how much storage space am I going to need to store 200+ HD movies? And what if my storage device crashes? Am I going to have to pay to get my movies back or will I have to have an equal amount of backup storage space? There is still a lot more to be ironed out before digitally downloaded movies will take over BluRay. Until then I'm going to go out and get me a BluRay player. I already have 200 movies the I currently own that I can watch on it. They may not be 1080i, but they still look damn good.

[gerrrg]

google the cost history of a terabyte drive...

and be prepared to be shocked.

[kenburk]

What a joke

Bandwidth - unless there are breakthroughs in the areas of transmission speeds and switching, the internet just can't support the time it takes to move 40-50GB of data from provider to consumer.<br /><br />Ownership - There are movies that consumers just want to own, either to watch whenever they get in the mood, or because it just needs to be on the shelf. Its a visceral thing that .com evangelists never get.<br /><br />Gifts - box sets make good gifts, downloads don't.<br /><br />I've seen the top quality downloads - and on a 60" screen - I'll take blu-ray everytime. It's not even a close race.

[indedave]

Exactly

I just want to add that I have to figure that everyone gushing about downloadable video has never seen a decent HD signal on a decent HDTV. Every internet scheme so far is forced to use extreme compression to conserve bandwidth. The higher the compression the worse the picture. Get back to me when all my home video equipment and net connections hook themselves up seamlessly with the touch of one button and can play real 2k video in real time.

[ianim8]

nothing else to write about?

its easy to be negative and write about things that really dont make good sense.<br />how about we concentrate on getting everyone a super duper high-speed internet for a measly 1cent a day first before jumping on this insane idea of downoading a SD quality tv clip. Oh yeah I wont even entertain the thought of 1080p HD clips :P

[ibeetle]

Digital Downloads Will Not Do A Thing

I remember c|net headlines 10 years ago. Shopping on line is <br />the new commerce. Shopping on line will put brick and mortar <br />stores out of business. Shop for underwear in your underwear... <br />and so, and so on. <br />And yet Wal-Mart, Federated (Macy's, Lord &#38; Taylor's, Neiman <br />Marcus, etc.) Dillards, and Target are still doing very well. <br />Then 5 years ago. Digital downloads will put record stores out of <br />business. We will buy all our music from iTunes. Well iTunes <br />sells out 20% the music that Best Buy and Wal-mart sells. And <br />Apple is the only one who seems to be making a profit. <br />Companies are shuting down it's music download service. Even <br />Wal-mart could not make a go out of it. <br />Then there were eBooks and eReaders, audiobooks. They were <br />all going to put Libraries and book stores out of business. The <br />New York Times just published a report that Libraries are more <br />popular now than they were 20 years ago. <br />And now we get this. Digital video downloads have been around <br />for a couple of years now. MovieBeam, MovieLink and CinemaNow bankrupt. Movie download services are closing. Not <br />opening. <br />Just wait until you rent Cars for the 19th time for your 6 year <br />old. At $5.99 you are going to wish you have bought the disc.

[aragorn888]

it is amazing how many 'authors'

at these supposedly high-tech oriented publications don't seem to be capable of reaching independent, fact-based conclusions.<br /><br />In this particular case: we do have the technology that allows delivers significantly better quality video and there seems to be a market for it. <br /><br />The advice you get? Well... stick with the old technology, go for some technology that delivers an inferior product and... wait for pie in the sky, any day now.<br /><br />Totally amazing. :)))

[Roy Lux]

No system is so grand

Downloading as it now exists is not a valid form of competition. Saying that this fact will never change is like saying Sony BetaMax will return victorious. Neither statement takes into consideration that the only thing certain about change is that it will do just that, change. What is said and thought to be impossible today will change. In all likelihood, a better system than anything in existance (other than a laboratory somewhere)will emerge, a lot sooner than anyone is comfortable in guessing. I watched an online indication of the percentage of fans following each team during the Super Bowl. I thought it very funny that as each team pulled ahead in points, the fans changed their allegiance to that team. Not many people are actually loyal to HD or Blu-Ray. They buy the best they can afford which can give them what they want. No system is so grand and wonderful that it won't be replaced by a better system, at times, a lot sooner than anyone wants it to be. The rest of us will continue enjoying a movie because it's good rather than whether you can watch it from two feet away or store it forever.

[nickb455]

Physical media will probably never go away.

Although virtual media like streaming and downloads are amazing, its not practical for the less technological people. Not just the older people, but even young people don't have computer skills. I have friends that can barely turn a computer on, let alone go to the internet download something and then use a sling box to send it to their TV. Most don't even know what that is. And speaking of technologically challenged, my dad (not even 50) can't even see the TV remote, making something easy like an apple TV out of the question with out hunting for his glasses. Although virtual media will catch on and will be a great hit. It would be stupid to do away with physical media. Because even people who can use computers(and use them quite well) still like to have something physical to have as a back-up, and with the DRM issues we have, I doubt you will be able to make a back-up.

[djchrysys]

plain and simple

I like having a real tangible hard copy that I can pop in and watch instantly or grab it and take it with me. Not to mention hard copies dont crash like hard drives do. I remember when my PC crashed and a lot of music I had on it was lost and I have yet to replace it all because the original hard copies I had were stolen and many were rare and out of print CD's. but quite simply I like having a real disc with liner notes and pictures so it is easy to say look you ever saw or heard this instead trying to explain it or go and search it on a hard drive and play it to show it. also since I work in audio/video and as a dj and producer a hard copy is a good thing to have to prove you own it. so many reasons I could go on and on.

[LoNotes]

This commentator is DEAD WRONG

Erica Ogg should do her homework in real time. it appears that <br />every comment supports her lack of knowledge on this subject.<br />1) Blu-ray looks far superior to anything you can watch at home <br />short of the actual film.<br />2) You can rent Blu-ray discs from Netflix or Blockbuster as most <br />people are accustomed to doing.<br />3) No download, standard DVD or PPV comes even close to Blu-<br />ray quality, the difference is night and day to an average viewer.<br />4) Adult habits are currently to buy or rent, not download. <br />Downloading is most popular in the younger demographic with <br />less money. It gained popularity primarily due to the incentive of <br />getting music for free.<br />5) 1080p cannot currently be broadcast due to bandwidth. This <br />won't change for many years. Look how long it took just to get <br />HD off the ground! When 1080p can be downloaded many years <br />from now, how long do you think that download will take? <br /><br />Hey Erica Ogg, go take a look at Blu-ray first and check your <br />facts.

[Urza9814]

Um...

'The difference is night and day to the average viewer'? I disagree with that. I mean, I will say I've never seen a blu-ray video...too expensive, nobody I know has a player...but seriously, I never noticed a difference between VHS and DVD. I can't see how Blu-Ray could be any better.<br /><br />And you can't say it's just that my eyes are bad, 'cause I'm not old enough for that yet - I'm only 17.

[Mergatroid Mania]

I wouldn't say SDVD doesn't even come close.

I have a lot of movies on SDVD that were mastered in Digital HD.<br /><br />I have been able to compare them running upconverted with the same movies in true HD.<br /><br />They compare quite favorably. I definately would not say "they don't even come close"

[geezzerr11]

dead wrong

the fact 1080p may not be broadcast due to bandwidth limitations is not a given. analogue broadcasting is dead in the US by 2012 I believe . This leaves lots of bandwidth for digital channels. Whether broadcasters will bother to go 1080P I do not know but my guess is they will. As to 1080p on cable, what is to stop it? What makes you think down;load speeds are at their limit now?

[vc73]

Digital Downloads...

I am a very skeptical regarding digital downloads. With a physical disc, I can watch the movie when i want and more importantly, where I want. If i go to my sister's house, i can take the disk with me and watch it there. Yes there are ways to transport digital downloads, but none are as convincing and convenient as a physical media.<br /><br />As well, the phsyical disk has a shelf life around 30 to 50 years. But a digital download on a hard drive will only last as long as the hard drive is functioning. Imagine storing all your favourite movies on a hard drive and it fails. What happens then? If a Blu-ray disk fails i can always purchase that one disk, but will the movie studios guarantee a replacement for all the movies lost on a dead hard drive? These drives, especially commercial drives, will fail; they are mechanical devices with a 5 to 10 year shelf life.<br /><br />Lastly, with this new revelation of ISP's "controlling" downloads (listen up Comcast), the download process is very irregular and inconsistant. We are still dealing with broadband penetration in the marketplace and now we have to worry about network neutrality. Capping or preventing downloads will derail any attempt to fully realize digital movie downloads. <br /><br />On top of their network management, consumers have to deal with hard download caps. With a supposedly unlimited internet account, i have a hard cap of 50 gigabytes per month. Two to three high definition movies would surpass this target easily, and i would be left with a very large penality for exceeding the capped amount. I could probably buy at least 2 Blu-ray movies with the money paid for the penalty.<br /><br />There will always be many customers that want a tangible item. This gives them more options than would a digitable download equivalent (not the least of which is reselling discs to buy new discs; a business that is thriving with both movies and games)<br /><br />Until such time as these issues are resolved or improved, digital downloads will only slowly increase and adoption, will be much slower than even Blu-ray.