The newest Internet whodunnit? Who cut the cables?

Three undersea fiber-optic cables get cut in just one week, and the conspiracy crowd is already convinced this is the prelude to World War III--or at the very least, a United States bombing assault on Iran.

Truth be told, I'm not ready to dismiss their paranoia completely. Yes, they are nuts but they're not entirely crazy. Look, outside of a handful of Washington insiders, how many of you really thought after September 11 that we'd be in control of Iraq, come winter 2008?

News.com Poll

What or who caused the undersea cable rupture?

Normal wear and tear
Secret ops warfare
Dick Cheney was bonefishing in the area

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The cable cuts knocked out Internet service in a good chunk of the Middle East and South Asia. (There are reports of a fourth cable out of service but so far that's unconfirmed.) What's behind the disruptions? Two of the cables are owned by Flag Telecom, the other by a consortium of telcos. At this point, the companies suggest the most likely culprit is Mother Nature.

In the absence of further details, that's as plausible an answer as any. But the official explanation has been drowned out by a more cynical take in the blogosphere and some regional news outlets.

My former CNET colleague John Borland has a great piece up at the ABC News site outlining the sequence of what's known so far. In particular, this nugget:

"Undersea cable damage is hardly rare--indeed, more than 50 repair operations were mounted in the Atlantic alone last year, according to marine cable repair company Global Marine Systems. But last week's breaks came at one of the world's bottlenecks, where Net traffic for whole regions is funneled along a single route. "

Not that any rational explanation is going to suffice in our fevered times. After the news broke, one 2003 U.S. government document began to make the rounds as Exhibit No. 1. The heavily redacted Department of Defense information operations report specifically calls out the Internet as potentially an enemy weapons system. (Decide what you will. Here's the link to the report.)

[rjbryla]

In control of what?

Could be foul play with the cables, or ship anchors, or Mother Nature, but what evidence does the author have that "we're in control of Iraq"???

[ralfthedog]

Proof.

Frank Herbert said, "He who can destroy a thing, can control a thing."

Would you disagree that we have destroyed Iraq?

[charlie cooper]

Dude, you misunderstood

Sorry "rjbryla," but you miscontrued that phrase. The point was that our armed forces invaded and assumed responsibility for managing Iraq. I'm not arguing that we have things "under control." There's a big difference.

[soggy0]

Hmmm ...

Paranoia

Definition

Paranoia is an unfounded or exaggerated distrust of others, sometimes reaching delusional proportions. Paranoid individuals constantly suspect the motives of those around them, and believe that certain individuals, or people in general, are "out to get them."

[Sherloxhome]

strategic movements

If one looks at a map of middle east, this incident(cable cuts) and US troop build up in Afghanistan are very strategic moves. Excuses by General Petreaus (we are prepping for "spring offensive", yada,yada ) defy logic. Bush & Israeli "allies" would like to attack Iran just before election. Then Americans will feel compelled to elect another "War Monger" President.

[daddylizard]

Control?????

"We" are in "control" of Iraq!??? You must be retarded...

[artistkvip]

possibilities

1) some one wants free internet and cable and is splicing
2) some government wants free information and internet
3)purposely cut by sombody who has finally gotten tired of all the people who cant speak english taking our important medical calls and having access to our private finacial records and making us make calls to foreign countries which i guess technichly gives the usa government the right to spy on you since one paerty is outside the us. and they cut the damned cables to get the jobs back in the us where they belong and its a good thing maybe..
4) its a total coicidence and caused by undersea currants and quakes which have not been reported to have happened

[fzysqrl]

Those darn currants

"4) its a total coicidence and caused by undersea currants and quakes which have not been reported to have happened"

I always knew we shouldn't trust currants or other relatives of raisins! I bet the undersea currants were carried by undersea currents.

[dobermanmacleod]

Iran oil bourse was due to open next week

www.myspace.com/dobermanmacleod

Is it a coincidence that Iran was going to open the first oil market in the world that accepted any currence other than the US dollar?

By the way, it is very unlikely that a rapidly growing population and world economy will cut emissions so fast and drastically as to avoid either abrupt climate change or runaway global warming.

Instead, any feasible planetary rescue plan must include a method of removing CO2 from the air. I suggest the low cost method of biosequestration.

[ralfthedog]

China and landfills. (biosequestration of carbon)

China could make all of the electronics they sell to us out of wood. They all wind up in a landfill within a week or two.

[Sherloxhome]

Iran would not be the first. . .

I believe Iraq was accepting Euro only, during period of U.S./ U.N. sanctions(which further peaved Bush Backers) I think it is now inevitable other OPEC members will soon convert to Euro. Our money is quickly becoming worthless to other countries as our deficit increases. If the "Mighty Dollar" fails... we will be left with only Military Might, and that may mean a bigger fight. All God's children squabbling over who is going to inherit the Earth, while our dear Mother Nature is on her deathbed !

[fred dunn]

Let's charge the Middle East $3/MB...

The US is software and content rich and they are oil rich so let get a level paying field.
:-)

[mrconservative]

Some human responsible

The facts: There are only three facts. Three cables were cut -
two of which happened almost simultaneously and the third
some hours later.

The calculated failure rate: The calculated failure rate for such a
catastrophic occurrence for these cables, in terms of days, must
be in many thousands of days. The probability that three such
cables would fail by separation (break) within hours of each
other would be astronomical.

Conclusion: Someone intentionally cut these cables.

[gabeheim]

I am surprised that..

no one has suggested the opposite, that perhaps Iran was behind some of the cable cuts to isolate other middle eastern powers. Of course such a theory is unlikely, just like the US doing it is unlikely. Whether or not you like bush, you have to admit he gave afghanistan and iraq warnings of an impending attack. Don't forget that Iran has been trying to increase their power and control of the middle east since the revolution. The fact is, they want to be the regional power broker. (of course, by taking out saddam, we may have actually helped them) Or to put it this way, most of the middle eastern countries are Sunni, and sunni governments have held the most power for centuries. Would you want a wrathful government from an opposing religious minority who wants payback running things? That's one reason why none of the mid east countries we have bases in have decided to evict us, they might despise us, but they know we are the only strong counter balance to iran.

[grintoul]

Since when have we been "in control of Iraq"?

Control would imply some kind of a plan and something other than random carnage...

[Steve.Nelson]

Whos "we"?

Do you mean "you" as in America? Or "you" as in you're personally in control?

[cyberbian]

The Evidence:

OK Here is proof that US is in control of Iraq

US is all goofed up since Bush took office.
Iraq is all goofed up since Bush took office.

Not very good control of either mind you.

[bspreng]

Bush Dood-it!

The odds of it being an accident or Mother Nature are about the same as the moon getting zebra stripes by tomorrow nite! What better opportunity to put taps on all of the internet in the area and monitor traffic in the mean time? Mr. Bush has been extraordinarily quiet on the subject - strange he has not blamed terrorists!

[PellicanJoe]

Bush? Why not the boogie-man?

Bush has less than a year to go on his office and most likely a Democrat will be winning his seat. I really think that Bush is only strategically thinking about where he is going to vacation after his term of office is mercifully over!

But, I like the conspiracy theory!

[ejevo]

Blame it on Japanese Whale Hunting!

Why not?

[jsdoyle]

Those Damn Iranian Speed Boats!

They're baaaak!

[ChrisJCook]

Iran Oil Bourse

The Iranian minister who announced the forthcoming "launch" is under a misapprehension as to the actual state of affairs in relation to the now almost mythical IOB - which was my idea in the first place.

It wouldn't be the first time a Minister's subordinates were economical with the truth.

This interview set out the facts about a year and a half ago.

http://uk.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/13/71557/8571

If the 'Exchange' launches at all - and our Iranian partners have heard nothing that suggests it is actually going to this time - it will, as far as I know, be using a fairly rudimentary system utilised by the Teheran Metal Exchange (a purely domestic market-place).

It is possible that the Iranians have secretly commissioned another consortium to implement something more advanced, but I suspect we would have heard if they had.

Firstly, as far as I am aware, that system is not "web enabled" so the state of the Internet is irrelevant.

Secondly, the only contracts that would be traded on it would be petrochemicals or possibly bitumen, and then only - as far as I am aware - simply as a mechanism for concluding 'physical' deals currently taking place on the telephone.

Thirdly, there is absolutely zero chance (we had that spelt out to us a couple of years ago by the Iranian OPEC representative) of any crude oil contracts being concluded on such a system any time soon, even domestically.

Now it may be that whoever was busy cutting those cables was as trusting as the Iranian minister in the capability of another - secret - IOB team/consortium (whom we and our partners are not familiar with, but anything is possible) and saw an IOB launch as a threat.

On the other hand, it may, once again, be a case of of a Minister being misled by his staff, and commentators not letting the truth get in the way of a good story...

[derXandl]

The Flying Spaghetti Monster!

Those cables annoyed Him by being too similar to his noodly appendages. As they are under the sea, he could send his chosen people (i.e. pirates) to chop them.
Aaaargh! Ramen!