Yankee Group: 'Second Life' doesn't live up to hype
When it comes to the virtual world Second Life, we're definitely in the middle of one of the predictable hype backlash cycles that often surround hot new technologies.
Since the fall of 2006, when Second Life hit 1 million registered users, it has since grown to nearly 10 million. Of course, that number doesn't reflect how many actual users there are.
But regardless of the numbers of users, the hype part of the cycle really picked up steam when the media noticed that a lot of big-name companies were opening up shop in Second Life. And now, the backlash has a lot to do with the question of whether those companies are finding any kind of value in the virtual world.
Many are asking the question of whether the hype was warranted, and vice versa, whether the backlash is fair.
Now, reports Virtual World News, the well-known analyst firm Yankee Group Research has weighed in. It issued a report on Monday announcing that "Hype of Second Life Far Outweighs Its Ability to Impact Mainstream Interactivity."
The Yankee press release doesn't waste time getting to the point: "Yankee Group today revealed that the hype surrounding Second Life doesn't match its actual marketplace impact."
The firm's analysis is based on the idea that user time spent in-world has slowed considerably from its peak last year. Compared with popular social-networking sites like Facebook and MySpace.com, Yankee says, Second Life simply cannot keep up.
For anyone who knows Second Life, of course, its myriad problems--difficult user interface, constant platform meltdowns, regular problems with lag and more--are a fact of life. Those who stick around do so in spite of those issues.
But one thing that stands out with the Yankee report is that the firm has declared that one of the major bottlenecks for Second Life is that it is too "PC-centric," particularly in an "increasingly mobile world."
The theory here is that Second Life, and presumably other virtual worlds and social-networking sites, won't grow to true relevancy unless they can get off the PC and onto mobile devices.
Whether that's true is debatable. But it is an interesting point, especially with the advent of devices like the iPhone, which could one day allow users to take their Second Life with them wherever they go.
For now, however, what's clear is that there are a lot of people looking for reasons to discount Second Life, and that's going to be true until its publisher, Linden Lab, fixes some of the biggest problems.
Daniel Terdiman is a staff writer at CNET News covering games, Net culture, and everything in between. E-mail Daniel.
personas. How many 2nd life users have you ever met in real life?
Ever wondered why it's none? One day someone will investigate
2nd life and it's all going to be over.
They even make news out of the fact that Second Life is mostly full of hot air and devoid of value.
Media hype is nothing new, but full of themselve Linden writer on Cnet are.
Some things to consider:
1. As a business world, the attraction to SL is like ANY web site: eyeballs and traffic. Worlds with the technical problems SL has can't keep the traffic coming. Everyone in the VR business knows this and the cost of content are the to basic business problems that must be solved up front. Picking a solution means you have to understand how cost of content and cost of services collude to narrow your choices.
2. Is SL an entertainment site or a business site? Despite all the ranting about the cool factor, the 3D web, and so on, these are still simply MU web sites. Content type proximity is the same as having shacks next to the upper Beverly Hills. Gated neighbors pick their near neighbors. Location Location Location. In the nightclub metaphor Rosedale picked up on, you can't mix the hard drinkers with the pot smokers. It just doesn't work. A nightclub picks a demographic and culls for it.
3. Assurances of security and privacy are fundamental to most businesses. 3D hosting for business and 3D hosting for the virtual living room are two different businesses sharing overlapping technologies. Those assurances are part of the service contract. Read it. Can't find it? Find another provider.
4. The web clients for a true metaverse need to be free but profiled. IOW, the client on the PC doesn't/shouldn't be the client on the mobile. They should be profiles of the same language. That is the best way to get the costs of the content down and to ensure there is a healthy competition for client innovation and service costs. If you find your provider developing core technologies at this late date, find another provider.
5. Standards already exist for these. If you are a company wanting to get into this market and don't want to pay VC or startup vig, or even trap your content inside a Google warehouse, find the standards that are mature and IP-unencumbered. They do exist. That way your company doesn't have to risk indemnity problems later or watch the content die as a result of an SL folding in the face of a market slump. 3D content is VERY expensive. Shelving it because a client died means you picked unwisely.
Hype is never a reason to enter a market. OTOH, a slump is not a reason to abandon one. If your VR vendor cannot adequately forcast business results based on the combo-pack of services you purchase, you do need to find one that can.
It is true what other poster has written, if it was not because of the Hype of SL by news.com and other arms of Big media SL would not be even what it is now which is pretty much nothing. After all who wants to download a 40MB software to chat in a 3D world that is cartoonish at best.
If you want to chat, you will use a product/service such as SiteSticky which is instant to use and takes 1 second to load.
If you want to have a business meeting you will use a product such as eAuditorium which offers all important application sharing & voice conferencing
features that a business needs for a (productive) business meeting.
If you want a 3D world to play in, you will use a service such as WOW that is 3D rich and is action packed.
If you want to go to a business to buy something from them, WHY IN GODs name would you go to SL to do so, you would go to their Web site to do so.
So SL is totally useless.
Only reason that Big media was Hyping it is because some big silicon valley investors had/have investment in it and they were Hyping it to dump their stock on the people.
- LOL on a IPHONE?
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by play7
October 5, 2007 9:11 PM PDT
- Please Daniel don`t be so 1984 about this.
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Reply to this comment
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(10 Comments)Second Life is no closer on a Iphone, then its useabilty on a Apple Computer. The reason why numbers are going down is people are getting smarter. They are learning that Second Life is nothing more then 13 year olds running around Second Life as women. Making money as escorts etc. If thats not bad enough the lag will surly hit you, if not that the gay people that say there are women but are men will cut your Second Life experience fast. How many of the Lindens themselves are ga? How many say they are women but are men? The Yankee report is not only right, but they could have said even worse. Daniel Linden You are very lucky