Why 'Halo 3' will decide the Xbox 360's fate

With Halo 3 hype soaring, people are already dreaming about fragging aliens, dual-wielding machine guns and taunting 12-year-old kids when they sneak up behind them and put one in their head in a massive online battle.

But what many may not realize is that tomorrow's release of Halo 3 could be a watershed moment for Microsoft and the Xbox 360. With a blockbuster title that will surely captivate millions across the globe, the Xbox 360 will be the most played video game console for the month of October and should catapult the system to the top of the video game world.

The Xbox 360 Savior

(Credit: Gamespot)

As we're all aware, Nintendo currently enjoys the top spot in the video game console war. With nearly 404,000 Wii units sold last month alone, Nintendo is hands down the most successful hardware company of this generation. And while Nintendo fans are quick to cite this number when their favorite console is under attack, they fail to mention how it compares to previous months.

According to The NPD Group, Nintendo Wii sales dropped 5 percent from July, while the Xbox 360, with 277,000 units sold, witnessed a sales increase of 63 percent from July. To round it out, the abysmal Playstation 3 sold just 131,000 units--a drop of nearly 18 percent.

Sure, the Nintendo Wii is doing well and it continues to sell better than the competition, but the main reason the Xbox 360 did so well last month was its software. Most notably, Madden. According to NPD, Electronic Arts sold 897,000 copies of the Xbox 360 version of Madden, representing the first time in years that a non-Sony console topped the Madden sales list.

I've said it once and I'll say it again--software and software alone will drive hardware sales after the initial hype dies down. And if the 5 percent drop in sales is any indication, maybe the Nintendo Wii's hype is finally dropping too.

Halo 3 will undoubtedly be the biggest game of the year. With millions already enjoying previous iterations, tomorrow's release could be the biggest we have ever seen. For many casual gamers, the release of Halo 3 means it's time to buy an Xbox 360. And it's this cadre of individuals that Microsoft has been waiting for.

Up to this point, the Playstation 3 has performed about as poorly as we can expect from a console. With no games to tout as deal breakers, the PlayStation 3 is dead in the water. And while some still hope for the days of Killzone saving the PS3's day, it's time to give up hope--nothing can save it now.

But Nintendo is in an entirely different situation. There is no denying the fact that Nintendo has a stranglehold on the industry and has realized that by appealing to the general public instead of just gamers, it can have some success.

But the main issue with Nintendo is its poor software library that is rife with mini games and barely appealing titles that don't offer enough of an experience to appeal to owners for too long. At this point, the Nintendo Wii feels more like a novelty item than a video game console.

But for all of its issues--shoddy hardware and underpowered technology--the Xbox 360 will take the day as long as Halo 3 becomes the success we all expect it to be.

By the end of this year, Halo 3 will sell millions of times. And as long as current Xbox 360 aren't purchasing the game two or three times, we should expect higher console sales numbers going forward.

Much like Mario games of the '90s and Final Fantasy VII, Halo 3 is a blockbuster title that will sell consoles. In fact, Halo 3 is the only reason some people will buy a console this generation.

So before everyone runs out to tell the world that the Nintendo Wii will be the de facto leader going forward, it's incumbent upon all of us to realize that Wii sales are falling, Xbox 360 sales are rising and with Halo 3 right around the corner, that trend will only continue until the latter cements itself as this generation's console war victor.

[Redmondgamer]

Not Even Halo 3 c

[Redmondgamer]

Not Even Halo 3 Can Save the Xbox 360 From The PS3

Don,

What kind of article is this? Don't you know that the xbox 360 has been languishing all year long? The Headline should have been "Will Halo 3 be able to help the xbox 360 hold on?"

Let me help educate you on Microsoft and the Xbox 360's history and very real problems.

October 25, 2006
http://seekingalpha.com/article/19252-microsoft-to-miss-xbox-360-sales-targets-by-as-much-as-25

Excerpt
"Why? People forget that the original projection for XBox 360 sales was for 5.5 to 6 million within six months of launch. That projection was re-iterated in January this year, but extended out to 5.5 million by July. And now, we're looking at 4.5 million for the year. Ouch."

Microsoft ended their full first year of sales at approximate 5.6 million units. 100% + less than their stated sales goal for the first year - you explain how that is sucessful?

Accurate estimation of sales by one of the most trusted financial reporting institutions in the world - The Financial Times

Friday 14th of September 2007
http://news.cnet.co.uk/gamesgear/0,39029682,49292780,00.htm

"According to the FT, approximately 9 million Wiis were purchased across the globe as of 31 July, just barely overtaking the 360's sales of 8.9 million units during the same period. Both platforms were far ahead of the PlayStation 3, which sold only around an estimated 3.7 million units internationally."

Now Kaz Hirai, the president and CEO of the Sony Corp. gaming division, said in an interview this last week, at TGS, that "...the Sony Playstation 3 has sold between 5 - 6 million units already (closer to 5 million though)"...

The data is accurate. Trying to claim that comparing 21 months of sales (Xbox 360) to 9 months of sales (PS3) is unreasonable. Sales are also affected as a console matures and its major titles get released. The only way to accurately measure the performance of these separate consoles is by sales at relative points in time.

The bottom line the Wii is the best selling console in its first year, followed by the Playstation 3, and then follow last by the xbox 360. These are facts. Also a point of interest is that the PS3 has steadily been improving its overall sales almost every single month since launch. And it looks poised to embarrass the xbox 360 which has seen its second year sales drop off by up to 70%+ from the first year.

Again the PS 3 sales figures are direct from Sony and to argue that their numbers are wrong is juvenile. And just so you understand it was said by the President (a signing officer of a publicly traded company) of the Sony Gaming Division. And whether you like it or not he is not allowed to publicly or otherwise mislead the public or investors with material details of their business; he was clear between 5 - 6 million to which he more specically stated low 5 millions. Now lump it and accept the xbox 360 is under performing, is dead last in relation to its first year launch performance, and has massive quality and dependability issues.

Oh and for a little more fun (well for me anyways) let's look at the xbox 360's SHIPPED numbers 2007 quarters vs 2008's.

Xbox 360 Units SHIPPED by Quarter
Q4 2005 1.5 million units[83]
Q1 2006 1.7 million units[84]
Q2 2006 1.8 million units[85]
Q3 2006 0.9 million units[2]
Q4 2006 4.4 million units (launched in 05 Nov 22 - adjusted increase taking October and part of November into account is approx +50%)
Q1 2007 0.5 million units[2] (-71% decrease over Q1 2006)
Q2 2007 0.8 million units (-56% decrease over Q2 2006)

You should now understand why wall street has labelled the xbox 360's sales ANEMIC this year and most do not believe it will be able to hold of the PS3 which has the larger userbase, superior gaming console, and larger stable of AAA exclusive games.

Yes the Xbox 360 will see a very nice rise in sales with all of the hype and launch of Halo 3 but it will not be anywhere near enough to save it going into next year.

The xbox 360 is in very serious competitive trouble vs the PS 3 and will most likely be overtaken for total units in the market by Sony before the end of 2008.

[sdsampila]

Fanboy Crap

That was the biggest load of PS3 fan-boy crap I've ever seen.

[DHeraSa]

Biased Article

I dont know how you got a place on CNET. As you may know, writer should not be biased and use nothing more than there own ideas to base their claims.

[AutomaticZen]

Your Information Is Off

"You should now understand why wall street has labelled the xbox 360's sales ANEMIC this year and most do not believe it will be able to hold of the PS3 which has the larger userbase, superior gaming console, and larger stable of AAA exclusive games."

Incorrect. Please try to based your statements off of facts that do do not come from the company in question.

Worldwide Sales Charts based on Retailers:
http://www.vgchartz.com/?b=6

Corresponding data from Nikkei, Enterbrain, and NPD:
http://www.beyond3d.com/content/news/468

Sony is firmly in 3rd place. That's how it is. They can ship as many PS3's as they want, but they have to sell to grow a userbase.

I feel the Playstation 3 is the superior console spec-wise, but that does not matter if it doesn't get the games. Sony depends on Metal Gear and Final Fantasy as much as Microsoft depends on Halo 3, Bioshock, and Mass Effect.

[tbmfan]

I think you're forgetting something: FACTS

"...but the main reason the Xbox 360 did so well last month was its software."

While software certainly had something to do with the 360's increase in the month of August, it is pretty stupid to overlook the $50 price drop the 360 received at the beginning of the month.

You also speculate that the Wii's drop from July to August is reason to believe it's hype is dying, but this too is erroneous. Wii sales in July were up from 381,000 in June, 338,000 in May, 360,000 in April and 259,000 in March. July was the most successful month for the Wii this year and August was the second most successful.

Your spin on things is totally false and I hope no one sees the lies you're spreading around.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3161452

[jbelkin]

Analysis Makes NO Sense

Yes, HALO is important to MS but the reason that Nintendo is selling to the MASSES is that it doesn't require a commitment of hundreds of hours to master. If YOU value that as a priority to playing video games, then PS3 or SBox 360 serves that purpose but NIntendo has realized there are now TWO distinct market - the casual gamers who number in the 80-100 million range (look up how many people are 'gamers' and the usage on flash/internet/solitare games) VERSUS the 25-30 HARDCORE gamers who value a game they can play for hundreds if not thousands of hours. However, that also requires learning your controllers inside out, all the moves and presumably going online and competing - none of which matters to casual and the market Nintendo is targeting. Of course, you sneer at a game anyone who can raise their arms can play or perhaps even master - that's fine but that's why PS3 and MS will NEVER be #1 in market share for this generation. THe marketplace has strataed and THEY MISSED IT. Now, that's NOT to say they won't be successful and while the PS3 may eventually reach Ps2 sales levels, the Wii (with the larger global gamers) will be at several hundred million.

http://2aday.wordpress.com/2007/07/20/nintendo-sony-ms-where-they-stand-now-whats-next/

[the_prasanth]

Children...

Quit getting bent out of shape. Yes this is somewhat about the 'console wars'...but the fact in question is, MS is putting out a quality product. It WILL boost their sales. And I understand how people get their skivvies in a twist when they feel like their 'investment' is being 'challenged' but seriously, who cares who's out on top? Competition means developers continually strive to produce the next best thing. Is that bad? As a result, we'll get winners like Halo 3, Metroid Prime- Corruption, and Bioshock- and we'll also get flops with their heart in the right place like Lair and Heavenly Sword. (I'd include Vampire Rain, but I seem to be the only person who actually likes that game despite how campy/crappy it is.) My only complaint is the majority of 'top notch' games at the moment are either football or shooters. Doesn't change the fact that this article makes a valid point, and isn't making any 'fanboy' attacks. Of course, fanboys are more prone to assuming anything that isn't unadulterated praise towards their opinion is an attack. So no, I'm not attacking a console...just the ridiculously overprotective owners.

And for the record, I was an avid PC gamer until I bought a 360 on a whim. It was actually my 2nd choice- first being a Wii, but couldn't find one for a respectable price anywhere and I boycotted Sony due to their recent business practices. Totally respect their technology, can't stand how they assert themselves as a company.

[Redmondgamer]

Not Even Halo 3 Can Save the Xbox 360 From The PS3

@AutomaticZen

Read my post fully before you comment on it.

The facts.

1. Microsoft only reports SHIPPED UNITS and has never provide VGChartz or NPD anything but SHIPPED units. If you have proof otherwise please provide it. Data supporting this can easily be referenced at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360

Not only do they have the chart of SHIPPED units but they reference every single Microsoft Quarterly Report which you can access yourself.

2. You reference both VGChartz and NPD. If you so easily post these sources you should be aware of how they arrive at their estimates. Both gather Microsoft SHIPPED data for the console (Sony & Nintendo quote sales for these purposes) and they then poll some of the largest retailers in the market but are simply unable to gather total and complete sales statistics. Clearly stated while their figures are not true sales but an estimate they are only helpful to gauge buying trends or market sentiment, but that is as useful as they get.

The last word on real sales come from the Manufacturers themselves. All three companies are publicly owned and traded and as such they are able to report either Shipped Units, Units Sold, or both to the market. However what they cannot do is misrepresent sales figures in anyway that is untruthful or misleading. This is why Microsoft chooses to provide SHIPPED units only as their method of reporting, While Nintendo has no problem as the current blockbuster and leading console with reporting sales, and Sony is rather low key in the face of overwhelming expectations on thier performance.

This is why we look to truly repectable and time honoured financial instutions like Financial Times for the closest real sales estimates for these companies.


Friday 14th of September 2007
http://news.cnet.co.uk/gamesgear/0,39029682,49292780,00.htm

"According to the FT, approximately 9 million Wiis were purchased across the globe as of 31 July, just barely overtaking the 360's sales of 8.9 million units during the same period. Both platforms were far ahead of the PlayStation 3, which sold only around an estimated 3.7 million units internationally."

Microsoft has sold approx 8.9 million xbox 360's in 20 months. This means that will most likely not even hit their total first year sales target of 12 million units IN 2 FULL YEARS of sales. Corporately this type of miss is considered a failure. Support for this is directly below in the seekingalpha report.

October 25, 2006
http://seekingalpha.com/article/19252-microsoft-to-miss-xbox-360-sales-targets-by-as-much-as-25

Excerpt
"Why? People forget that the original projection for XBox 360 sales was for 5.5 to 6 million within six months of launch. That projection was re-iterated in January this year, but extended out to 5.5 million by July."


Kaz Hirai, the president and CEO of the Sony Corp. gaming division, said in an interview at TGS this September that "...the Sony Playstation 3 has sold between 5 - 6 million units already (closer to 5 million though)...".

You also need to understand that Sony shipped 6 million units by March 2007 and has shipped even more since with the final releases of the 60g model and new release of the 80g PS3. So you can easily see that Sony is not quoting, in September, SHIPPED numbers but actual SALES.

And just so you understand perfectly it was said by the President (a signing officer of a publicly traded company) of the Sony Gaming Division. And whether you like it or not he is not allowed to publicly or otherwise mislead the public or investors with material details of their business; he was clear between 5 - 6 million to which he more specically stated low 5 millions. So accept the fact that the xbox 360 has under performed, in relation to its first year of sales vs Nintendo and Sony, being dead last in relation to its first year launch performance, and has massive quality and dependability issues.

The Halo 3 launch is Microsofts last great chance to get ahead of Sony before the PS3 juggernaut begins and it doesn't look good at all after Halo 3.

It really is a funny situation, at least to me, that by the end of the PS3's first year it will have pwnd the xbox 360 in its first full year of sales, it is also a reason why Sony is taken a very measured approach to price reductions.

Sony is actually doing well in relation to the cost of their console and their first years sales projections, but the markets elevated expectations of the PS3 console in its first year have never been higher for a gaming console.

The real assault comes heading into next year with all of the PS3's AAA games and they know that a large amount of xbox 360 users will also be buying into the PS 3 console.

I just don't see any upside to Microsoft after the Halo 3 launch - I think it is pretty much game over for the xbox 360 vs the PS3. The game line ups are just too strong for Microsoft to maintain any momentum.

2. During an earnings call in January 2007, Microsoft's CFO downgraded estimated Xbox 360 sales for the first half of 2007. Cumulative sales from the system's launch until June 30, 2007 were predicted to reach 12 million units, down from 13 to 15 million units estimated earlier. Microsoft later announced they SHIPPED 11.6 million units cumulative to June 30 2007. So it has taken Microsoft 19 months to SHIP NOT SELL 11.6 million units. Included in these SHIPPED totals are new console replacements to retailers for defect Xbox 360's. Microsoft does not break these out seperately but includes them in the SHIPPPED group. If you wish to argue this please save us time read the quarterly reports and see if you can find defective unit replacements broken out seperately from new shipped consoles. Microsofts marketing tactics are as bad as they can get.

You can access the microsoft quarterly reports at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360


Microsoft SHIPPED 11.6 million Xbox 360s vs 12 Million goal. Reuters articel:

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKN0538169920070705?rpc=44

3. And as for trying to claim that comparing 21 months of sales to 9 months of sales is unreasonable. Sales are also affected as a console matures and its major titles get released. The only way to accurately measure the performance of these separate consoles is by sales at relative points in time. So while, to the unstudied individual, it is easy to just claim the xbox 360 has more units in the market than the PS3 and as a result is winning or the leader between the two is naieve. The P3 will easily have outsold the xbox by the end of 2008.

4. The other key item you are omitting is that as the next gen of the PS3 games are hitting the quality of them is unatainable by the xbox 360. The almost photo realistic in game graphics, amazing image rendering, simultaneous physics manipulation of over thousands of indiviual items, and extreme differences in pixel rendering of the PS3 to the xbox 360 will start to become very clear as these new titles roll out. Halo 3 Bioshock, Forza 2, & Gears of War all have a cartoonish graphic saturation to them as a result of the xbox 360's graphic limitation. Even a Halo 3 bungie developer said that to include the flame thrower in Halo 3 was a major challenge due to the high cost of resources - this is a joke as a PS 3 doesn't even break a sweat with this kind of image rendering.

With all of the talk about Halo being the greatest gaming franchise one must bring people back to reality with the worlds real greatest gaming franchise Gran Turismo which has sold over 50 million copies to date. As of this time Halo 1 and Halo 2 have sold a grand total of 13 million copies and even if Halo 3 exceeds the 8 million copies of Halo 2 it will still have sold less copies than Gran Turismo. So why do I bring this up? Check it out below.

Gran Turismo 5 Prologue the most realistic racing simulator ever:
http://media.ps3.ign.com/media/857/857126/img_4801523.html
http://media.ps3.ign.com/media/857/857126/img_4801564.html

This is also the example of graphic in game capabilities that the xbox 360 will never be able to do and thus not be able to provide a gaming experience to the same level that the PS3 will.

Right now and for several months to come there will be a solid glow on the xbox 360 from Halo 3. But after this passes reality of the PS3 and the difference of the gaming experience will start to become very clear. Xbox 360's games will feel like they were developed in the 90's vs the PS3's true next gen gaming experiences.

[xsarge7]

Fates of the 3 consoles

Halo 3 WILL decide the Xbox 360's fate. Its a good thing and a bad thing. Relying on 1 title is not good at all for a console. But it being a good game makes Microsoft's situation a little better. However, Halo 3 will not really sell the Xbox 360 to any more people other than the people who own the original Xbox. Only about 8-10 million (closer to 8) copies of Halo 2 were sold and about 25 million original xboxs were sold. That probably means that a lot of the original xbox owners did not care for Halo enough to buy it. Thats not good news. What makes Microsoft think that it will propel the Xbox 360 to new heights? A console needs a variety of good games in different genres to sell in large numbers. The PS2 had the right mix of games and a little luck from 3rd party developers. PS3 looks like it will have the same mix, but probably not as much 3rd party support as the PS2. A lot of 3rd party developers either made their games multiplatform or exclusive to another console. However, it seems like after GTA IV is sold, Microsoft will have already fired their shot and Sony getting ready to fire and Nintendo trying desparetely to reload. After Microsoft's shot, they will not have much left to fire when the time to fire comes again. Sony has nothing going for them right now, but soon the Playstation 3 will have a lot to enjoy. However, it is possible for Microsoft to pull something out that might be a good complement to Halo 3, but they are going to need a lot of those to be the winner. Sony knows how to sell and they are using a similar software strategy as they have done in previous years. Nintendo(sigh), their story this time around is like the hare and the turtoise. They are going way too fast for themselves and like the Gamecube, they wont have any 3rd party support. 3rd party games just dont feel right on Nintendo consoles. Nintendo has a lot of work to do because Mario and Zelda definetely wont be enough to propel the Wii to sucess because they could not for the Gamecube.

[melmacj]

Sadly Very Disappointed!

Until now I wouldn't even buy a new product without CNet editors take on it. I've always pegged their reviews as tell it like it is, real deal. I had a great deal of respect for all the editors, but for this guy to say on this blog, that because of one game release Halo 3, Playstation 3 is dead before it even begins. I find this totally misleading and without merit. CNet editors has never been biased until now.
This is a very sad thing to see!

[melmacj]

Retract of my earlier post (Sadly Disappointed)

I just realize that the reviewer is not a actual CNet editor but more of freelance journalist. The opinion of the blog still stands but not of the editors that I known and love.

[ChaosCloud]

Errrrr....Wtf?

Lmfao, hey guys can you tell me *** this random blogger is smoking?

"It's time to give up hope guys...nothing can save the ps3 now!"

The ps3 hasn't even been out for a year yet, plus i think it's selling pretty damn well at 500/600 bucks..heck 130k consoles sold in a single month probably sounded like wishful thinking to sony earlier in the year.

Nintendo's Wii also hasn't even been in the console war for a full year, yet it's outselling the 360 by a pretty comfortable margin month-to-month, heck it's even overtaken the 360 in overall units sold WW.

And what's for next year? Sony has big plans(Software & hardware wise), Nintendo has big plans(Same as sony), and what does MS have? NG2, Fable, and a few J-RPGs?

Infinite Undiscovery is probably S-E's joke about how no one gives a **** about the 360 in japan. It'll probably get ported to the ps3, i'll probably pick it up along with a Copy of Eternal Sonata when it does.

Yet PSP slim sales has revived the PS brand in Japan with the help of FF7: CC, lol just wait until the GoW: CoO megaton drops next year.

[futureblues26]

You're forgetting things

None of us expect the PS3 to do well until next year. That is, when the AAA titles start rolling in. If you were a true gamer, you'd know there are games bigger than even Killzone, plus many more at or below KZ2's level.

The three biggest series are:
1.Final Fantasy (XIII)
2.Metal Gear Solid (4)
3.Devil May Cry (4)

Add to that Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII Versus, Ratchet and Clank, etc, and those (except DMC4) are just the exclusives! There are many more fantastic multiplatform games.

Get. a. *******. clue.

[sigma8]

Halo3 will not appeal to a wide audience

The author says Halo3 will be the only reason some people buy a console this generation. Technically, that's true. If there are a 1000 people that buy a current-gen console solely due to Halo3, that's "some" people.

But Halo3 is a cookie-cutter, hardcore FPS game. The same type of game that has existed and pleased hardcore gamers for the last 10 years, while attracting few outside converts. I don't think you'll be reading about rehab centers, retirement homes, or relatives all huddling around Halo3.

Halo3 is a hardcore gamer's game. Most of these people are the precise group of people who will already have a console. Honestly, I wouldn't expect someone holding their breath for Halo3 to have been able to resist buying a 360 for Gears of War, an excellent, highly praised, and aggressively marketed title aimed at the same crowd.

Of course, due to high failure rates, we may see lots of extra 360 sales of people replacing their Xbox360's to play Halo3.

[pSych0o]

Get a Life.....

I have both ps3 and 360 and by no means is the ps3 dead, you and no way shape or form are a gamer you no nothing ok so 360 right is pushing out there best titles but the ps3 will have its moment though it may be laging in sales it is still saling wich is what you dont dont understand people are buying there may not be as many as nintendo's Wii or as xbox 360 but there around 4.3 to 4.5 million strong it doesent have a year yet and the good titles are about to role in but ps2 is still king the most sold gaming cousle ever sold broke the ps1 record though I have a 360 and I love playing halo 3 and Gears of War I can clearly tell you I see the future and the future is Ps3 xbox cannot make a real full high def game because not enough space on the discs so you'll see 2008 will be the ps3's year. Also read that 90 percent of the 360 power has been used to create games while only around 13 to 15 percent of the ps3's power has been used and though you can port xbox 360 titles to the ps3 you cant do that the other way around because of the ps3 much more advance procesor.

[EyobeB]

responding to Psyco

[EyobeB]

responding to pSych0o

pSych0o is speeking the words of a true niggga.

[FE411]

Get a Life, AGAIN.

PS3's and Wii haven't been around nearly as long as 360. One game will not destroy the Wii and PS3's sales whatsoever.

Also, it took Microsoft YEARS to dish out awesome titles.

Look at Nintendo... Metroid Prime: Corruption, Halo 3's greatest rival, has come out a month ago. Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Super Mario Galaxy, AND Super Smash Bros. Brawl are coming out by the end of the year with Mario Kart Wii coming short into 2008. Nintendo is also catering to those who want to lose some extra weight with Wii Fit also coming in 2008.

Sony has just released Heavenly Sword, and has already released heavy hitter Lair. No way is the PS3 dead.

Crackdown, Halo 3, Mass Effect and some others look wonderful as well but as I already said, a few games WILL IN NO WAY DEFEAT AN ENTIRE GAMING INDUSTRY. DEAL WITH IT, FANBOY.

[m0zart]

A real eye-roller of a blog post...

Some of these comments defy description. Halo 3 is a great game, but it is not any more a revolutionary system-mover than Halo 2. Halo 2 was extremely popular, the hype being unseen in the gaming world before. It's popularity even made Microsoft profitable for a quarter. Yet what did that do for them in the long-run? It gave them a short lead over the Gamecube in worldwide sales, and that's about it.

Yet I am supposed to believe that Halo 3 is going to be a fundamental audience expander for Microsoft -- a hardcore FPS that fits the same hardcore crowd that was full of fans of the original XBOX?

And what is this about the Wii? "Software and only software" we are told is going to decide the winners this generation. But what KIND of software? Why one kind over the other? The 360 has had the same sort of software in the same vein as Halo since it debuted almost two years ago. It has already trumped both the PS3 and Wii in software titles available -- but that hasn't ensured their "watershed" moment even after being available a year ahead of the competition. The truth is, it is the kind of software that will move a system that matters here. And guess what, it isn't the same kind of software that moved PS2s seven years ago. And it certainly isn't the same kind of software that left the 360 in a less-than-firm second place last-gen either.