Apple vs. Apple
The Wall Street Journal says that the iPhone price drop spooked Apple investors. Clearly something did, but if that really is why, it's some slightly goofy thinking on investors' part. But it also gets back to a point the Macalope was making a few months ago about why Apple might not want to release a touch-based iPod too soon. It bears repeating:
If Apple shows gigantic iPhone sales that drop off dramatically, expect howls of "I told you so!" from the usual collection of clowns, but also some serious questions from serious analysts wondering if that toe Apple's dipping in the cell phone market is finding the water a little cold.
What the horned one didn't figure on is a heavy iPhone price cut to keep it on par with the new iPod offering, but this is really the same effect. Apple has long had products that competed against each other, but this is the first time (in a long while anyway) that it's had to report the sales figures separately.
But the point is, as all signs previously have pointed to strong iPhone sales to date, this isn't about competing with other smart-phone providers. It's about competing with iPods. A $599 8GB iPhone just wasn't tenable anymore with a $299 8GB iPod Touch. Now people only have to pay a $100 premium for the joys of a long-term relationship with AT&T.
So, the brown and furry one is scratching his antlers a little bit about why investors are so concerned about Apple eating its own lunch.
Apple's trying to have its cake and eat it too. It wants to sell lots of iPods and lots of iPhones. As Steve Jobs says in the Journal piece:
"It's time to be as aggressive as we can be," Mr. Jobs said. "If we're not, then we have to wait another year for the next holiday season."
The Journal leads with the "is Apple having trouble competing in the cell phone market" and doesn't get to what the Macalope thinks is the real reason for the price cut until the 18th graf.
Some analysts said the iPod Touch could damp iPhone sales by providing an alternative for consumers who want the iPhone's multimedia features without a two-year commitment to cellphone service through AT&T. AT&T's Mr. Coe said the new device's release won't affect what the company expects to be strong demand for the price-reduced iPhone.
Sure. The "price-reduced" iPhone.
One way or another this will get sorted out when iPhone sales figures for the current quarter are reported next month.
UPDATE: See if you don't agree with the pointy one that some of this "analysis" is a little goofed up.
ZDNet's Larry Dignan has some analyst quotes.
Bank of America:
To us, the most significant product announcements concerned the iPhone-- 8GB now $399 vs. prior $599 and 4GB discontinued...
Whaaaa? Did Bank of America sleep through the Nano, the iPod Touch and the wireless iTunes Store?
JP Morgan:
Overall, the event was largely in line with expectations with the exception of the price cut on the iPhone.
So, you expected a $299 iPod Touch and didn't think Apple would drop the price of the iPhone? How does that make any sense?
Disclaimer: The Macalope holds an insignificant number of Apple shares.
Mythical beast and rumormonger extraordinaire, the Macalope writes about all things Apple for the CNET Blog Network. Read more at The Macalope: An Apple blog. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
I refuse to partake in Apple's blatant methods of making-up lost iPhone margin. REFUSE!
...until there's 10 gig in the iPT.
Hint:... 2 - 4 - 8 - 16 - 32 - 64 - 128 - 256 ... looking like base 2 notation at all
to you?
the really big story, which is the wifi store and the Starbucks deal. This has the potential
to be HUGE in coming years....
Imagine..you're sat in a bar, and a tune comes on that you like. You used to have to
remember to buy it next time you're shopping, but now, potentially, you could have it on
your iPod or iPhone in a matter of moments. Now, image you want to order a new round
of drinks too - why not the capability to do THAT from your iDevice ?
This is the big picture, and I'm really surprised how many 'analysts' and investors missed
it.
- iPhone prices announced in January at $499/$599.
- iPod touch prices announced Sept 5.
- 1 million iPhones by Sept 29th goal first announced at July 25th quarterly
call. (I believe.) Notice this is after the initial month of sales.
Did Apple really plan to cut the iPhone price by a third after 65 days? I don't
think so. Not a good customer relations move, in my book.
They may have originally planned a $100 cut to keep the iPhone at a $100
premium over the iPod touch... or perhaps they were originally planning a
higher price point for the touch.
I'm not sure Apple would be happy "meeting expectations" with the iPhone.
They want to blow away expectations.
Conclusion: iPhone sales have tapered out quite a bit and a price adjustment
was in order. I don't believe that large a price cut was originally planned
however.
My 2 cents.
They're presumably looking at the new iPod range and saying "ho hum, it'll do the trick and ensure Apple's existing dominance there". Meanwhile when it comes to phones: they can see Apple's challenge more clearly.
I really do think both the iPhone and the iPod touch are going to sell like crazy. The sound we'll hear as they meet the competition will be "crunch".
- No Enderle?
- by GreySheepDuo September 6, 2007 12:01 PM PDT
- Our dear friend had nothing to say on this particular topic? Madness.
- Like this Reply to this comment
-
(6 Comments)I have to think, though, that the iPod is going to appeal to part of the market
that the iPhone didn't: those people who want the media but don't want the
phone. I'm one of those -- I'm perfectly happy with Verizon, and I don't want
to start paying someone else for another two-year contract. On that same
note, I want a widescreen, touch iPod, and Apple realizes this.
What I'm saying is that the iPhone appealed to people who wanted a _phone,_
and this appeals to everyone else. For those who want more than 16GB,
there's the iPod Classic. Apple now has something for everyone -- from a
phone to a media player.