Alternative fuels a tough sell, MIT forecasters say
Dethroning the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine is not likely to happen soon and will only occur with decades of policies to promote alternative fuels, according to an economic analysis done by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
MIT on Wednesday published a summary of the research that used economic models to study how alternative fuels could come to market.
The "systems dynamic" model, which simulates how markets behave, took into account several factors, including how often people buy new cars, how manufacturers affect the market and vehicle attributes.
The researchers' conclusion is that alternative fuels suffer from a catch-22 situation.
People won't buy cars that run on alternative fuels, even if they're far more fuel-efficient, because of concerns over fuel availability. Similarly, distributors won't build the infrastructure if there is not sufficient demand.
"The challenge is not just introducing an AF (alternative fuel) vehicle," said postdoctoral associate Jeroen Struben of the Sloan School of Management, who participated in the research. "Consumer acceptance, the fueling infrastructure and manufacturing capability all have to evolve at the same time."
MIT said alternative fuels are necessary to address environmental and energy security goals. It did not make a specific policy recommendation, but it said any policies to entice alternative fuels, such as a carbon tax or subsidies to build filling stations, would need to be in place for many decades, even during times of dropping gasoline prices.
Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin. 
to alternative fuels.
[b]Quoting:[/b] [i] "People won't buy cars that run on alternative
fuels, even if they're far more fuel-efficient, because of concerns
over fuel availability. Similarly, distributors won't build the
infrastructure if there is not sufficient demand." [/i]
Somehow we managed to sell radios when few wanted to invest
in commercial broadcasting. We managed to transition to
television when the only thing you could watch was boxing. And
finally, people were buying color televisions when 99% of
programming was still broadcast in black & white.
As we run lower on oil and it gets harder to find, prices will go
up and stay there, people will demand an alternative and other
people will successfully sell it to them. It won't happen instantly
but it will eventually happen. Simple economics.
conveniences or improvements that were very appealing. In some
ways, going to a different fuel can be easier than going from horses
to cars was, because its a much smaller change. But it still needs to
be wanted by the masses. And what makes us want something
new? In this case, more convenience. What could be more
convenient than a gas station or a plug-in fuelling system? The
only thing I can think of would be lower cost, longer times or
distances between refuellings, things like that.
After I buy an all-electric car (probably in 2010 or 2011), I'm going to set up a solar array to charge it. How's that for alternative fuel?
Then we will be rid of those petroleum bastards.
If we go to high efficiency petroleum vehicles that gets 2 times the efficiency the petroleum industry will just raise gasoline to 2 times the price. There is no valid reason for fuel prices to be where they are (and it's not the tax reason), however it dosn't help that the government would loose all that tax if we downsize of the oil industry. Maybe we need some more global warming disasters before anyone will give a ****. The people will tell the petroleum industry to screw off.
This culture is so stupid we deserve everything we're going to get.
- It's not too hard to sell
- by aka_tripleB May 31, 2007 6:22 PM PDT
- Manufacturers just need to push for a supplemental change. If they go to E85, E100, or diesel/biodiesel, you don't have to wait for the infrastructure you can use the infrastructure that is already in place. All the fuels mentioned above can use either fossil fuels or bio fuels, so until a more complete infrastructure is built for bio fuels.
- Like this Reply to this comment
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(9 Comments)While moving to bio-fuels may put a more crunch on the food supply initially, it would be easier to find ways to make bio-fuel vehicles more efficent as well as making the process of making the fuel more efficent if there isn't as much stress on the oil supply after another 10 years of doing nothing about the deminishing oil supply.
While bio-fuels may not be the type of fuel to stick with indefinately (might be, we'll have to wait and see), but it is definately the next step we need to take to keep from getting stranded with only a long hard road to go down because we did nothing.