Computer simulates deadly Vesuvius blast

A new computer simulation shows that if Mount Vesuvius were to erupt again, as many as 300,000 Italians would be killed if not evacuated beforehand, scientists say. According to a Reuters article, scientists from the National Geophysical and Vulcanology Institute in Pisa, Italy, developed the first 3D supercomputer simulation to determine how an eruption would affect the estimated half a million people living within a 4-mile radius of the volcano.

Vesuvius has been inactive for more than 60 years but is considered one of the most dangerous volcanos in Europe because of its proximity to Naples. Scientists fear its next eruption could rival the one in AD 79, which killed about 16,000 people.

Augusto Neri, who led the simulation research, said the computer simulation depicts what a big eruption would look like over a period of time, and calculates factors like magma temperature and topography. The good news, he said, is that as many as 200,000 people living in the high-risk northern area near Vesuvius could have more time to escape an eruption because of its Mount Somma rim, which acts as a natural barrier.

"It's the first time that such a complete model has been applied at Vesuvius," he said, according to Reuters.