Parsing Ellison's Linux comments

Larry Ellison's recent comments regarding Linux were anything but off-the-cuff and said with a specific purpose, say long-time Oracle watchers.

The outspoken Oracle CEO told the Financial Times that he wants to own a "full stack" of software and that the company may support or bundle the Linux operating system.

Those comments set off a flurry of speculation as to what Oracle may do, including a possible acquisition of a Linux distributor.

But Forrester Research analyst John Rymer said that Ellison's comments weren't made for entertainment value.

"(Ellison) can come off like a loose cannon but I don't think he says anything like this accidentally or without thinking," he said.

Rymer speculates that Ellison was trying to send a message to Red Hat, which is acquiring JBoss, an open-source middleware competitor to Oracle.

Until now, Red Hat has been a neutral commercial Linux distributor. Now Red Hat could take actions to favor its middleware product line at Oracle's expense.

"He's trying to send a message to them about the way he expects them to behave. It's sort of a veiled threat," Rymer said.

He added that Ellison's public pronouncements have been used effectively in the past.

BEA Systems was considered a take-over candidate by Oracle. When Ellison made comments about possibly buying the Java middleware provider, BEA's stock took a hit, Rymer note.

Similarly, Red Hat's stock dropped Tuesday following the publication of Ellison's comments.

Of course, talk of possible acquisitions among any combination of companies very often leads to nothing apart from a flurry of headlines.

"We note that public posturing from Oracle CEO Larry Ellison does not always correlate to Oracle's actual intentions," noted First Albany analyst Mark Murphy. "He repeatedly suggested that Oracle could and would competitively crush Siebel Systems--only to end up acquiring the company."