Crystal balls and ballot returns

The returns are in, concessions have been conceded, Bush will give his victory speech in a few hours. What this means for broadband policy is more of the same, at least for the foreseeable future. High-speed Net will be increasingly dominated by the big cable and phone companies, with less room for competition from rivals.

If I had to predict, I'd say we'll see slow but steady growth in high-speed Net infrastructure. The current growth in basic DSL and cable will slow, but continue. I'd say we'll see a widening gap as small, dense nations like Japan and Korea get increasingly fast next-generation connections for lower and lower prices, thanks to genuine competition. I'd say a relatively small percentage of lucky U.S. households will get access to fiber optics lines in the next four year. I'll go out on a limb and say 13.7 percent. How's that for entirely baseless precision?

I'd say that Bush will declare victory in his goal of achieving access to broadband for all Americans by 2007, because there will be just the outside chance that rural areas will be able to get some satellite feed or stray WiMax signal. I'd also predict that the simple fact of access will have little to do with the reality, which is that many rural areas won't have realistic, affordable options.

Or maybe broadband over power line will prove to be a magic bullet. I don't have much faith in magic, however.

This isn't wholly a political issue, because there's little evidence that Kerry would have pursued policies that would have changed much. But political decisions matter. Watch the digital divide, and the small but cumulative effects it has on regional investment patterns and capital flows. It shouldn't be the top issue on anybody's mind today, but neither is it irrelevant.