The technology research firm expects Samsung to more than double its percentage point lead over rivals from 2012 to 2013. Samsung held 29 percent of the cell phone market in 2012, while Nokia ranked No. 2 with 24 percent. IHS didn't specify what percent of the market Samsung should control this year but said its lead over its nearest rival should rise to 11 percent (from the 5 percentage point lead in 2012).
That's a pretty bullish estimate for a phone that hasn't hit the market yet, but part of that increase likely will come from rivals' woes. Nokia's share of the handset market has been falling as it struggles to expand in smartphones. And even if Apple gains a lot of share, it won't come within 11 percentage points of Samsung. In 2012, Apple controlled 10 percent of the handset market.
"Combined with a massive worldwide rollout through almost every operator, the lifestyle focus of the S4 will help drive Samsung's market share sharply in 2013," IHS analyst Ian Fogg noted.