Flat-panel revenue growth forecast as anemic
Revenue from sales of flat-panel displays is expected to rise just 1 percent annually from 2008 to 2016, a new report predicts.
That forecast contrasts sharply with the annual growth rate of 20 percent over the past eight years, according to the report released Friday by market researcher NPD's DisplaySearch.
This year's revenue will dive 20 percent over 2008 due to the sluggish economy. Revenue is expected to see a revival in 2010, rising 13 percent over this year.
The overall flat-panel market is expected to grow from $82.6 billion in 2009 to $111.5 billion in 2016, DisplaySearch predicts.
LCD TVs, which make up the largest chunk of the flat-panel market, are expected to see almost no revenue growth through 2016, reaching $37.1 billion in sales that year.
"Price declines and commodity demand for sets smaller than 50 (inches) will constrain sales," DisplaySearch predicts.
The annual growth rate for revenue from desktop monitors and plasma TVs is set to drop 6 percent and 7 percent, respectively, through 2016.
The news isn't all bad, however. Sales of flat-panels for mobile phones are forecast to grow 6 percent a year, grabbing more than $20.8 billion in sales in 2016. Revenue for notebook displays is expected to grow 3 percent each year, hitting nearly $15 billion in 2016.
In DisplaySearch's chart, CAGR stands for compound annual growth rate.
Newer technologies are set to see higher growth rates.
Revenue for OLED TVs, which are thinner and less power-hungry than LCDs, is projected to jump 140 percent each year through 2016. Smaller devices such as Netbooks, e-book readers, and digital photo frames will also see revenue growth.
"Despite the overall flat outlook for (flat-panel displays), there are some bright spots in the long term," David Barnes, vice president of strategic analysis at DisplaySearch, said in a statement. "We expect electrophoretic and OLED technologies will experience more growth than other display technologies will over the long term."
One area not likely to revive is the CRT. DisplaySearch expects that CRT shipments to desktop monitor manufacturers will stop this year.
Revenue for CRTs for televisions is set to plunge 34 percent annually from 2008 to 2016, especially as prices fall for LCD TVs and OLED TVs.
Lance Whitney wears a few different technology hats--journalist, Web developer, and software trainer. He's a contributing editor for Microsoft TechNet Magazine and writes for other computer publications and Web sites. You can follow Lance on Twitter at @lancewhit. Lance is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and he is not an employee of CNET. 
If you think a 50" is worth no matter the technology $1,500 then you are nuts!
- by sirsparky July 12, 2009 8:19 AM PDT
- Have you tried to replace your old TV with a tube lately?
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(3 Comments)No possible. Maybe the high end will suffer, but Radio Shack and WalMart have PLENTY of $500 to $800 flat panels for sale. The normal replacement cycle for TV's should beat this fake news item.
Move along, nothing to see here.