Gartner: PC sales to pick up by end of the year

After more than a year of doom-and-gloom PC market forecasts, things are looking up.

Market research analyst firm Gartner predicts that the fourth quarter of this year will bring the beginning of a rebound that will gain momentum next year. With a stronger fourth quarter, the industry is on pace to move 274 million PCs worldwide this year. While that's still a 6 percent drop from last year's total shipments of 292 million units, it's not as bad as once thought. Earlier this year, Gartner was predicting a 9.2-percent decline for the year.

Gartner says next year's shipments will swing into positive territory, predicting growth of 10.3 percent. But its analysts say it's too soon to assume the worst is over. People are still delaying purchases while the overall economic outlook remains uncertain.

Customers will begin buying again, but not until later this year, and picking up through 2010 and 2011, according to Gartner Research Director George Shiffler. He also cautioned that the first wide availability of Windows 7 won't spur as many new sales as may be expected.

"Although the buzz surrounding Windows 7 has generally been quite positive, we don't expect the market to significantly deviate from its normal seasonal trends in reaction to its release," Shiffler said in a statement. "Unless Microsoft mounts a major marketing campaign in support of Windows 7, we think consumers will simply adopt the new operating system as they would normally buy new PCs and/or replace old ones. As for professional users, we still expect them to put off adopting the new OS for at least a year until they have fully tested their applications against it."

[Lerianis3]

Considering that the economy isn't 'tanking' as bad as was thought (you can't even tell there are problems in the area where I live), I wonder why all these businesses are having 'problems'. Could it be that it is only businesses overinflating their troubles in order to justify laying people off?

[dennisl59]

Yes.

[philosfool]

Can you please tell me where you live. Several friends of mine need a job.

[Dan7637]

i sure as hell wont be buying a new pc if i buy a new computer it will be a mac

[Mr. Dee]

A Mac is a PC that also uses an Intel x86-x64 processor.

[philosfool]

On Wall Street, there is a phenomenon known as a "dead cat bounce." A dead cat bounce occurs the day after a stock completely crashes: it gains a few points. The reason for this term is that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from high enough.

[gsigas]

I would definetly buy a new PC at the end of the year with a 32nm "Westmere" i7 and finally make the leap to a 64 bit OS as well, however, there is no way I can afford one. This is the problem, I am sure there are tens of thousands of people who would chose to upgrade their computers at the end of this year except for the fact that they can't afford to (the same as what happened with cars). Its not that people don't want to upgrade, its that they can't afford it when the choice is 1) eat or 2) get a new computer.

[Mr. Dee]

No plans to buy a new PC until at least 2012, prefer to buy Windows 7 and upgrade the 3 I now have.

[BigGuns149]

I think part of it is that ultimately most computers and laptop computers specifically only last a couple of years. For many people a computer is no longer a luxury, but rather practically a necessity. There is only so long that one can delay a computer purchase.

[codynews]

This is all because of Windows 7. People that have been on the fence with respects to a new PC will finally take the plunge.

[Inconnux]

Vista was the #1 reason why PC sales have tanked. PC manufacturers are banking on Windows 7 to get rid of the bad 'Vista Experience'. Of course with the dumping of Vista, PC sales will increase.

[kelmon]

Personally, I don't see Windows 7 as being a driving force behind any increase in PC purchases. Let's be fair here, Windows 7 (and Vista, for that matter) don't really do that much more than XP already does so the likelihood that private individuals and businesses are going to rush out and buy new PCs so that they come with Windows 7 is pretty low. As a general rule, your driving forces behind new PC purchases go like the following, in no particular order:

* Current hardware is either outside the warranty period or is broken.
* Current hardware is not fast enough to run desired applications.
* Current OS is no longer supported by the manufacturer

For private users it is possible that very cheap PC prices for something sufficiently more powerful than what they have today could prompt an impulse upgrade but you probably already have to be thinking that your current hardware is low first.

As far as businesses are concerned, Microsoft is going to have to announce the end of support for Windows XP before any mass migration to Windows 7 is likely to occur.