PC shipments to decrease 4.5 percent in 2009
As bad as the second half of 2008 treated the PC industry, 2009 is shaping up to be even worse.
PC shipments worldwide will drop 8 percent in the first half of this year, according to a forecast update Thursday to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The fourth quarter saw a 1.9 percent decline, driven in large part by large enterprise companies delaying buying replacement PCs during the recession.
But after a rocky start, the industry should turn around a bit by year's end. IDC predicts that shipments will improve over the second half of the year, resulting in small, but positive growth in the fourth quarter, ending with a 4.5 percent decrease for the year. That's a change from the 3.8 percent overall growth for 2009 the company had predicted in early December.
IDC's reasoning that the PC market will have to rebound is because it's driven heavily by replacement cycles, and though companies and individuals may be holding back during this volatile period in the economy, computers don't last forever, especially laptops, whose life spans tend to be shorter than those of desktops.
Though the current economic cycle is bad, it will get better, assures Loren Loverde of IDC. "Pricing will become more aggressive, and there will be further consolidation, but the PC industry will not go the way of the financial or auto industries in this cycle."
What should be more concerning, though, is the plummeting average selling price of those PCs, which is led by an increase in cheap laptops and Netbooks. Prices of PCs sold by Apple, Dell, Lenovo, and Hewlett-Packard dropped 5 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, which led to an 18 percent drop in revenue for those companies, according to a report also released Thursday by Technology Business Research. But unlike shipments, which have dropped due to current economic factors and are expected to rise again--people will always need to replace their computers--prices aren't likely to rebound.
"The decrease in ASPs is structural and permanent," said TBR PC analyst Ezra Gottheil in a note distributed Thursday. If the industry is to rebound, he says, the most successful PC makers and software providers will figure out how to provide services after sales to increase their currently dwindling profit margins.
Erica Ogg is a CNET News reporter who covers Apple, HP, Dell, and other PC makers, as well as the consumer electronics industry. She's also one of the hosts of CNET News' Daily Podcast. In her non-work life, she's a history geek, a loyal Dodgers fan, and a mac-and-cheese connoisseur. E-mail Erica. 
A Mac user who is tired of fanbois.
But also in that delema is how long does it take for a computer to become obsolete. If a computer is designed to last 20 years, but becomes obsolete in 3 years... is that too long a lifetime? I've had no problems with any computer I've owned lasting 6 years or better (which is when they are obsolete to the point they are no longer productive). What would you suggest the lifetime be?
http://www.pcworld.com/article/153624/under_the_hood_windows_7_is_vistas_twin.html
What the PC makers need to do is pressure Microsoft to allow them to sell XP as well as Vista. If they did that there would be a surge in new PC sales. If they sold them side by side, I doubt 1% of the market would choose Vista.
goodspeed wow I am impressed with your debating skills...
- by mooney101 March 6, 2009 9:38 AM PST
- If they want to sell more PCs get windows 7 on the market. I"m a happy vista user myself but it has such a bad name that most consumers are put off on buying a pc because it confuses them right now.
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