Networking predictions for the new year

As 2008 draws to a monotonous close, there is still a sliver of time left for me to make my 2009 networking predictions. Yes, money will be as tight as a Minnesota Senate race next year, but there certainly will be a number of bright spots. Here is my list of 10 technology areas to watch in 2009 (in no particular order):

1. Managed network services. Unlike other IT infrastructure areas (servers, storage, security equipment) large and small organizations have been buying network services for years (think Frame Relay, Centrex, etc.). This comfort level will persuade frugal chief information officers to pad contracts with additional services in 2009. Network service providers like AT&T, BT, and Verizon will prosper as IT managers eschew internal efforts and instead dabble in areas like managed network security, remote access, and WAN (wide-area network) optimization. I expect increasing quarter-to-quarter growth in many managed network services in 2009 and beyond.

2. Phat networks. While many IT projects will be put on the back burner, I still believe that we will see a lot of network backbone upgrades next year. Why? All of this Web 2.0/IT consumerization stuff generates a lot of traffic and the load isn't getting any lighter. Like it or not, CIOs will have to spring for 10Gb core switches and routers to keep remote and branch office workers productive and happy.

3. Unified communications. OK, now I'm in buzz-word territory but I see a problem and an opportunity here. The problem is that we are all communicating with each other using a half dozen or so independent technologies. We need to rein this in soon while integrating the concept of "presence" into our communications processes. On the flip side, there is a great opportunity to integrate unified communications into business processes to improve efficiency and service. Imagine how happy you'll be when your service call is answered by a product expert rather than a series of frustrating menus and gatekeepers.

4. 802.11n. I've been a believer in this next-generation WLAN (wireless local area network) standard for a while. In 2009, we should see significant growth in penetration and revenue. Given improvements in bandwidth and security, I expect to see 802.11n as a replacement for access switches as organizations refresh the network edge. I also anticipate additional manufacturing, health care, and government applications built to take advantage of the 802.11n momentum. Look for HP to become an aggressive competitor in the WLAN space while independents like Aruba and Meru get gobbled up by the likes of Juniper and Brocade/Foundry.

5. Core network services. I'm talking about services like DNS (domain name system), DHCP (domain host configuration protocol), RADIUS (remote authentication dial-in user service), and IP address management. With all of the networking activity in the past few years, these core services have been a virtually ignored kludge leading to unplanned downtime, security vulnerabilities, and manual operations. This mess must be fixed soon--good news for Blue Cat, Infoblox, and Juniper. Look for Microsoft to stir the pot with a core networking services appliance in 2009 as well.

6. Application networking. I'm combining two categories here: Application acceleration and WAN optimization. The year 2009 promises to consolidate tons of applications and services in massive data centers running on top of virtual servers. Users and virtual machines will be in a constant state of mobile flux while exchanging enormous files and speaking an ever-growing variety of network protocols. Someone has to play traffic cop to avoid gridlock so A10 Networks, BlueCoat, Citrix, F5, and Riverbed should do just fine.

7. Telepresence. The use of video conferencing should grow as companies restrict employee travel and equipment prices plummet. Cisco is about to announce a sub-$1,000 SMB platform while carriers are planning managed services offerings. But, telepresence growth will also expose its limitations. Business managers will discover that boring six-hour telepresence sessions are no substitute for actual human contact.

8. Virtual server and network integration. As physical servers host dozens of virtual guests, and virtual machines move from host to host, networking can get pretty dicey. The way around this problem is tight integration between virtual and physical switches. VMware and Cisco are already working on this but what about the other hypervisors (Citrix, Microsoft) and switching providers? Look for open application programming interfaces and one-off relationships in 2009.

9. Data center networking. Closely related to virtual server integration, expect to see more specific data center networking equipment from Extreme Networks, Force 10, and glamour start-up Arista Networks. Data center equipment will offer functionality like virtual switch integration, clustering, dense port counts, and support for IP storage. Cisco and Brocade/Foundry will focus in this area while Juniper and HP will aggressively push products and programs.

10. Real Cisco competitors. Cisco is a well-oiled machine but I see a perfect storm for others to gain share. With organizations looking to save money, technically advanced low-priced alternatives will look extremely attractive. I've already seen Aruba and Extreme win deals like this when Cisco was the incumbent. Along these same lines, the competition has never been stronger in terms of both technology and resources. Finally, as Cisco enters the blade server market, look for HP and IBM to cozy up to others or push their own gear. Brocade/Foundry, HP, Huawei, Juniper and others may gain share at Cisco's expense in 2009.

I'm sure I missed a few items but I'm just about out of time. Happy New Year!

[ckurowic]

Sounds good, this is the direction we seem to be heading where I am at.

[Penguinisto]

C'mon, Jon... #2 is a no-brainer. It's a helluva lot cheaper to have a managed provider set you up with a managed WAN line than to lease a T1 yourself.

As for #1? Not so sure. I have fiber strung all throughout my internal network that can carry up to 10gb/sec (bless the facility's former owners!) if I can ever get the powers-that-be to cough up for the switch-gear... Yep, it would be nice to have someone else set all that up and pop in when I need 'em, but that's an affordable prospect because once it's set up, there's not too much you have to do with it outside of the occasional teething trouble, expansion, or fix (and on networking gear, that last part is kinda rare).

On a slight tangent: Not so sure that critters like MPLS will continue to thrive, though... As someone who is currently trying to get rid of a contract for one, I can tell you that they've been more trouble than they're worth. Also, it's actually cheaper to get someone like, say, Integra to get your lines hammered in with a more flexible 'dial-a-pipe' 10/20mb arrangement for a WAN, than to pay the near-confiscatory rates that, say, AT&T charges for a puny 6mb/sec MPLS arrangement.

BTW - Cisco has been pimping the unholy crap out of #9 there... even claiming near-perfect integration with VMWare's built-in virtual switching (that could've been sales-critter over-bragging, though). 'course, they're also starting to downplay the ancient-but-damned-workable 6500 series in favor of their new 7000 series switch gear as well. And don't get me started on how they like to use the word "MARS" more than NASA does.

Ah well - guess I'd better stop grousing. Good article. :)

[BTRoundtable]

We share your belief that Managed Network Services will gain ground in 2009, and benefit from increased adoption -- as the selective out-tasking to an MSP continues to coexist with internal managed IT and networking solutions.

Furthermore, it appears that Managed TelePresence offerings will complement the introduction of new new low-end systems. Again, these solution scenarios will likely coexist in many environments -- as CIOs and IT managers selectively apply the best-fit solution for a given application, geography, budget, etc.

David, Business Technology Roundtable
http://business-technology-roundtable.blogspot.com

[Tom1Z]

I agree with you on most of your opinions. Managed network services did increase all the time.

As for #6, there are more and more applications and services in massive data centers running on top of virtual servers. Application acceleration and WAN optimization will be done during this year.

As for #9, Data center networking is very important right now. Big companies will do something on this during 2009.

As for #10, I think in many countries, there are already real Cisco competitors such as HP, Huawei.

Mike Lee
owner of <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.myhotcoupons.com" target="_newWindow">hot coupons</a>