Safe bets for IT spending in '09

All indications are that IT spending growth will be below the rate of inflation in 2009, thus budgets will actually decrease in real terms.

If things get worse as many experts predict, it could get really ugly. Nevertheless, there are some technology areas that are close to a sure thing in 2009. Here is my non-exhaustive list:

• Virtualization. This ship has sailed and is producing real benefits. The only thing holding up massive virtualization thus far is immature management and operations tools, which will also improve throughout the year. Look for users to buy bigger Intel servers in 2009 in order to improve virtualization consolidation ratios. There will be enthusiasm for desktop virtualization, though projects in this area may be delayed. This category is good news for Citrix, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, and VMware.

• Networking. There's no getting around the fact that users need more bandwidth in the network core. This benefits Cisco Systems, but in a tenuous economy, more customers will be open to working with competitors like Extreme, Force10, Foundry, Hewlett-Packard, and Juniper. Users also must make sure that Web-based applications meet service level requirements, so A10, Blue Coat, F5, and Riverbed should fare well.

• Security. This is an area where I anticipate a lot of activity. First, large organizations have to get their arms around data privacy and security, including data discovery, classification, data loss prevention, enterprise rights management, and data encryption. Winners include Symantec, RSA, McAfee, and Seagate as well as smaller companies like PGP, PKWare, and Liquid Machines.

Second, security management will merge with log management. That works for ArcSight, RSA, LogLogic, and LogRhythm. Finally, threat management needs a refresh across e-mail and the Web. Good news for IronPort, Borderware, Proofpoint, and Barracuda. IBM, HP, and Symantec have a distinct advantage with large organizations as they can do everything from weaving security into business processes, to selling individual security products, to taking over the whole enchilada with oodles of managed services.

• Storage. Capacity will grow but users want to rationalize purchases and do a better job of managing data. Yes, this benefits EMC with its new Maui initiative but also new-age storage players like Cleversafe, Compellent, Equallogic (Dell), LeftHand (HP), and 3Par. Oh and don't forget IBM. Its XIV acquisition may be a strong fit for next-generation storage needs.

• Services. Users won't invest in big bang projects but they still need valuable skills--especially when they won't be allowed to hire new full-time employees. This bodes well for HP, IBM, and Unisys.

[jessiethe3rd]

One thing I believe you left out which will definitely be high spend is virtual communication strategies. One big expense for business now days is travel... whether that's in the sales arena or just partner to partner communications companies are looking for ways to cut down on the cost to do business. One strategy that seems to be catching more and more wind are technologies like WebEx, LiveMeeting, video conferencing, and VoIP technologies. Companies are budgeting big spends with Cisco, Microsoft, and a host of other players to cut down on the time and expense to communicate. I believe this initative will grow in 2009 due to the fact that companies and the government is serious about "green" style initatives that save time and money.

[Penguinisto]

Re: Virtualization... already way ahead of you there. We're buying Dell R900's with 64GB of RAM and 4xquad-core processors. 50 guest servers ran (until recently) across just two physical machines (at avg. usage), and only uses 35% of the pooled memory (plus only 15% of pooled CPU) . I say "ran because I recently added two more cluster members for some anticipated expansion. As it is, I have tons of room even if I still only used the two boxes.

I recently added the two physical boxes since an emergency + VMotion would leave half the previous cluster size running a bit heavy. You best bet is to insure that if your total cluster were suddenly cut in half, that the surviving members use no more than 60% of any one resource - be it RAM, CPU, bandwidth.

I'm still adding guest VMs as needed, but even with four machines + VI3 and a decent SAN, vs. the price of, well, 50 new physical servers? No-brainer, folks.

Cisco is already pimping their new 7000-series core switches... that said, a dual 6509 rig in VSS formation should be more than plenty for most mid-sized applications... no need to blow off a quarter-million bucks (or so?) on a setup now; you can do that later when you have better justification and a bigger budget to buy the goods with.

The rest I can agree with to an extent, though YMMV...

[Penguinisto]

oops - typo; should've said "35% of each server's pooled memory", which means that if all of the vm's were piled onto one box, it would eat 70% of that box' available RAM.

Same figures w/ the CPU.

[Stephano21]

Excellent post, although I find your combination of virtualization as a winner along in combination with Loglogic , Logrhythm and Arcsight (with Logger) as beneficiaries in the security space odd as those 3 vendors all depend on appliances for their solutions. IMO Hardware appliances that are really application servers in disguise will be the big losers when virtualization really takes off. If you are unwilling to buy into server sprawl why would an appliance still be be attractive? Appliance sprawl is just as problematic as server sprawl. Pure software solutions that can be deployed on virtualized environments are going to rule the day.