A couple of economic researchers working for Yahoo say they have developed a forecasting model that predicts a win for President Barack Obama this November.
The model, created by David Rothschild and Patrick Hummel, predicts that Mr. Obama will carry 303 electoral votes this fall. At the same time, they say that several states contests remain virtual toss-ups.
In reviewing the last ten presidential cycles, the researchers say that their model correctly predicted the eventual winners in 88% of the 500 state elections that took place. Between now and mid-June, they they assume that personal income growth remains average for … Read more