forrester

Forrester Research reduces IT-spending forecast

Growth in information technology spending next year is expected to reach 1.6 percent in the United States, a substantial drop from previous forecasts.

Forrester Research's current 2009 estimate, released on Tuesday, is down from its previous forecast of 6.1 percent growth, which was issued prior to the steep drop in IT spending at the close of the third quarter.

In September, Forrester took the unusual step to update its forecast outside of its usual quarterly schedule, noting that 2009 IT-spending growth would fall to 6.1 percent from previous forecasts of 10 percent growth.

"Our U.… Read more

Forrester: Open source delivers cost and quality benefits

For anyone still stuck in the 20th century mindset that open source is just about Linux--or even solely about Linux and middleware like the JBoss application server--Forrester Research's new report, "Open source paves the way for the next generation of enterprise IT," should be an eye opener.

Through the report, Forrester makes it clear that open adoption is deep, wide, and covers all levels of the software stack, from operating system to applications.

The impact? Well, let's just say that enterprises may dabble in open source for the cost savings, but they will stay, according to Forrester, for far more critical factors:

...(A)s (enterprises') adoption of open source software matures, they are likely to find more value beyond saving money on software license costs, low barriers to entry, and rapid evolution of successful open source projects.

The open source paradigm embraces an even more important long-term benefit--a more innovative IT shop that can rapidly adapt to changing technologies and seize new opportunities as higher-level open source infrastructure projects mature. This combination of upfront cost savings and improved time-to-market will become a powerful weapon for those shops that can wield it strategically as a way to maximize the effectiveness of their software investments.

With that said, the cost benefit should not be understated, with 56 percent of Forrester survey respondents naming cost as a primary driver for their open-source adoption:

A few other salient facts from the Forrester report:

87 percent of those surveyed realized the cost savings they expected from open source;… Read more

Mayfield Fund, Forrester CEO weigh in on tech economy

Call it the elephant approach to sizing up the health of tech.

In two separate reports released Monday, Forrester Research CEO George Colony and Mayfield Fund weighed in on where they believe tech is headed in this challenging climate.

Colony, who took hold of the proverbial elephant's trunk, noted in his CounterIntuitive blog that the current recession will likely result in a tech spending slowdown, but nothing near the levels seen in the post-bubble-burst era of 2001 to 2003.

He noted CEOs and CIOs are indicating they plan to "change their way" out of the current economic … Read more

Forrester: Holiday e-commerce growth to slow

Online retail growth will slow for the first time this holiday season as a result of the weak economy, according to a new report from Forrester Research.

The market research firm estimates that $44 billion will be spent online by consumers during the holiday season; that's up 12 percent from last year, but it's the slowest rate of growth for online retail to date.

It's important to note that the Forrester report refers specifically to e-commerce, not to the hordes of people who show up at Best Buy at 5 a.m. for Black Friday deals. But … Read more

Forrester Research lowers IT spending predictions

Forrester Research on Wednesday revised its best-case-worst-case scenario for U.S. IT spending. Rather than possibly posting an upside above the base, Forrester is warning, at the extreme, the situation could get worse than its September base projections.

Back in September, Forrester made a base prediction that IT spending would grow 6.1 percent in the U.S. and between 7 to 8 percent overseas. Forrester, at the time, also noted a potential existed that IT spending could exceed its base projections.

But a dramatic downturn in the markets, a virtual chokehold on credit availability, and a financial crisis that … Read more

If Intel's worried about suppliers, so should the rest of IT

It's reached the point where I don't trust any of the big research houses to get it right when it comes to IT spending.

Last month Forrester reduced its 2009 IT spending forecast while at the same time upping its projections for the remainder of this year. (I should add that Forrester issued its declaration just before the big financial meltdown got going in earnest.)

Meanwhile, tech CEOs gathering this week at the Gartner Symposium ITXpo conclave in Orlando are moping around as they regale each other with ever more depressing tales from the trenches. The Gartner graphic … Read more

Forrester slices 2009 IT spending projection

IT spending got a dose of good-news-bad-news Tuesday, with Forrester Research nearly doubling its projections for increased U.S. spending this year and virtually slicing growth for next year.

IT spending is expected to rise 5.4 percent this year, revised from previous Forrester projections of a 2.8 percent increase.

But next year, growth in IT spending is expected to get whacked down to 6.1 percent from previous projections of a 10 percent increase.

Forrester, which revises its annual projections on a quarterly basis to reflect changes in the economy, attributed the changes to its most recent projections … Read more

Analysts as a lagging indicator of success

A few months ago Sam Lawrence of Jive Software spent some time grading Forrester and Gartner as analysts. His verdict? Neither does a fantastic job, but Forrester is much better at servicing a small but growing vendor like Jive.

My own experience with analysts is mixed. Analysts tend to be great at predicting the past, but far less adept at predicting the future, which is actually what customers expect from them. If you look at such things as Gartner's Magic Quadrant, it is great at showing where the industry was, rather than where it's going.

The problem is that analysts like Gartner get their information from the vendors that subsidize their research, as well as from CIOs. Neither is a good indicator of where the market is going.

As Billy Marshall classically wrote, the CIO tends to be the "last to know" about new IT initiatives. As for the vendors, the only ones with enough cash to subsidize research are the same ones that have a vested interest in protecting existing cash cows. In other words, the past.

Analysts, then, are a lagging indicator of success. They tell an enterprise buyer from whom she should have purchased software and hardware a few years ago, not where she should invest IT dollars tomorrow. As an example, despite the massive influx of open-source vendors in the enterprise, Gartner persists in believing that open source is years away from making a dent in the enterprise, and you'll rarely find an open-source vendor in a Gartner Magic Quadrant. Here's a recent Magic Quadrant for Business Intelligence. No open source need apply.

Putting open source aside, some analyst research is so egregiously off that it's almost comical.… Read more

Serious games for serious people

In a paper titled "It's Time To Take Games Seriously," Forrester analysts TJ Keitt and Paul Jackson came up with a new phrase to describe video games:

"The phrase the industry should rally around is 'serious games' to bring together the numerous disciplines. However, Forrester recommends identifying individual games with the underlying goal of the game, for example, calling Volvo Car UK's game an immersive learning simulation. We don't see this being an issue in a few years, as the old guard in the workforce is replaced by younger colleagues. As this happens, doubts … Read more