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The speed of technology's 'creative destruction'

Activists worry about the environmental cost of discarded mobile phones, personal computers, and other technology. Perhaps they should also worry about the swelling graveyard of start-ups and tech titans gone bad.

As Le Monde points out (in French), though businesses fail in all areas of the economy, technology ventures, and especially Web start-ups, prove particularly short-lived.

It's Joseph Schumpeter's creative destruction...in overdrive.

Le Monde suggests three reasons: the speed of innovation/evolution (AOL's walled-garden approach meets Yahoo's open-portal approach), the ability of incumbents to crush nascent competitors (Netscape meets Internet Explorer), and the shortcomings of … Read more

Google, open source alter who gets paid for what

Open source, like digital media, doesn't suck money out of hitherto profitable industries. Instead, the opening up of software and information simply changes where the money gets made.

This is obvious to the Googles of the world. It's probably equally obvious to the Microsofts of the world. The difference is that the latter can see the train coming but is powerless to stop it, and the former is driving the train.

The evidence for this is increasingly clear and is driven by a shift in how content is sold and consumed. The problem is neatly summarized by Google CEO Eric Schmidt in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece directed at the newspaper industry:

[T]he Internet has broken down the entire news package with articles read individually, reached from a blog or search engine, and abandoned if there is no good reason to hang around once the story is finished. It's what we have come to call internally the atomic unit of consumption.

That newspaper was "the package," but is increasingly too slow and out-of-sync with how people prefer to discover news content. New packaging is rising, including Google News, that will shift who makes money on news content.

Reporters will still get paid. They'll just have a new employer on their payroll check. Maybe it will be Google.

Think about what is happening in music. I could download New Order's "Regret" for free using LimeWire, but I bought it on iTunes because of the "packaging" which makes my experience easy, high-quality, and legal.

Still, the primary drivers are ease and quality.

Such packaging is worth a lot of money--and to an entirely new breed of vendor--as a quick look at Google's latest income statement suggests.

It's happening in software, too, particularly in open-source software. Red Hat is an example of a company that does a great job of turning software license into an ongoing service contract that enterprises buy. It does this by packaging the power of others' development in the form of a subscription, as Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst recently highlighted.

But Red Hat is just Open Source 1.5. Open Source 2.0 looks more like Google or IBM. For every dollar Red Hat makes selling subscriptions to use open-source software like Linux and JBoss, both Google and IBM make multiples of that dollar using open-source software to sell something else, something they've packaged in hardware or Web-based services.

The hardware is running open source. The services are based on open source. The money is made in the packaging of open source.… Read more

Google, Red Hat represent tech at Obama jobs summit

President Obama is gathering 100 leaders from across the U.S. for his jobs summit in Washington on Thursday to brainstorm how to create new jobs.

While the list of invitees is heavy on academics, labor unions, and business, it appears only two people from technology made an early invitation list: Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, and Jim Whitehurst, CEO of Red Hat.

FedEx. Yes. Nucor. Yes. But no Microsoft. No Oracle. No Salesforce.com. What gives?

Yes, Schmidt is a key advisor to Obama. But his invitation, along with Whitehurst's, could have a lot to do with the … Read more

Why Microsoft should open-source Internet Explorer

In the past week, the open-source business community appears to have reached consensus: making money from open-source software is a bad model, but making money with open source is golden.

This can't be good for Microsoft.

Microsoft has long maintained that as the open-source industry has matured, it has become more and more like the commercial world it sought to leave behind. Fundamental freedoms of open source, like the right to modify source code, are signed away to secure a support contract with Red Hat or another vendor.

In many ways, Microsoft was right. Unfortunately for the Redmond giant, … Read more

Open source: No vow of poverty (or get-rich-quick scheme)

With open-source software businesses, you have two options. Actually, three, but the third belongs to Red Hat, and it applies to roughly no one else.

The first option is to sell support for open-source software. This option is generally advocated by those who have never grown a business beyond $10 million. It's a terrible model unless your only aspiration in life is to run a services company.

Hence, the support model might be good for Accenture or systems integrator, if they want to take on the burden of support, but it's a poor model for Red Hat, MindTouch, … Read more

The 'wisdom of crowds' loses steam

If something seems too good to be true, it probably is. That popular aphorism never seemed truer than today when reading The Wall Street Journal's analysis of Wikipedia's declining volunteer base. Despite countless articles extolling the virtues and seeming omnipotence of "community" over the past several years, the technology industry seems to be settling back into old habits:

Command and control.

It's not that the "wisdom of crowds" idea hasn't influenced the way technology is developed, or how news and information are gathered and distributed. It has.

It's just that the … Read more

Theory of competition fails in open source, elsewhere

The natural state of a market doesn't appear to be broad competition between Lilliputian-sized competitors. Rather, markets tend to crystallize around a few dominant players.

Ironically, this is as true of open source as it is of proprietary software.

In September I asked if open source can monopolize a market. ZDNet's Dana Blankenhorn and others gave great feedback, but the market since then has provided the best evidence:

Yes, we can have an open-source monopoly (at least, a natural monopoly). In fact, this may actually be the normal state of a healthy open-source market.

If we think of … Read more

The case for the open-source Goliath

Despite the broad and deep trend toward open-source software, it's telling that Red Hat remains the only large, pure-play open-source vendor.

Without a strong, standalone open-source leader, will commercial open source endure?

The obvious answer is yes, but there are reasons to think that the industry would benefit from a billion-dollar open-source company. Actually, several.

It might seem counterintuitive to suggest that open source, which by its very nature tends to be decentralized and bottom-up in its growth, would benefit by concentrating wealth in a few hegemons.

David is nice, but the fact is that Goliath generally wins.

Take … Read more

Cloud to suck money out of market, report says

A recent survey suggests that CIOs are loosening the purse strings on IT spending. IT vendors may want to hold off their celebrations, though, because much of the spending appears to be headed for deflationary forces like cloud computing, virtualization, and their kissing cousin, open source.

An economic rebound never looked so dire.

That's unless you're an IT buyer, of course, suggests a new report from Goldman Sachs. In this week's report, titled "A Paradigm Shift for IT: The Cloud," Goldman Sachs said it expects that pent-up IT dollars will flow in the short term … Read more

When open source isn't (open enough)

Some open-source software may not be open enough. While "open source" refers to software's underlying license and its adherence to the Open Source Definition, there are numerous examples of open-source projects that offer an open license but a relatively closed development process.

It's been called " fauxpen source" and worse, but we may have to get used to it. It seems to be the new normal in open-source development. Only open source foundations like Eclipse, Apache Software Foundation, and Mozilla appear to be able to escape it completely.

Java is one example people cite of &… Read more