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Silver lining in Goldman Sachs' projected decline in IT spending

The bad news is that in its November report on IT spending, Goldman Sachs is projecting a 5 percent decline in 2009 in developed economies (the United States, Western Europe, and Japan), or 65 percent of IT spending, compared with 4 percent expected growth in 2008 and 7 percent growth in 2007. The slowdown will span all vertical markets (financial services, communications, and so on).

The good news? Goldman Sachs expects IT spending in developing economies, which accounts for 35 percent of IT spending, to hit 7 percent growth in 2009. The net? A 1 percent decline in IT spending in 2009.

The other good news? Most IT budgets are weighted toward operating expenditures, with OpEx consuming 75 percent of budgets, leaving just 25 percent for capital expenditures. Why is this good news? Well, that depends on how you make money. If you're an open-source or SaaS company, you fall into the OpEx spending category, where most of the money will be in 2009. If you're trying to peddle proprietary licenses (CapEx), well, good luck with that.

Of course, it's not all bad news for proprietary software vendors, as "operating budgets, which comprise staffing and recurring elements such as maintenance, typically have more resilience associated with them, even in downturns," according to Goldman Sachs. Given that an increasing percentage of revenue for software giants like Oracle comes from maintenance, they should be able to at least tread water on existing deployments.

Hardware vendors, however, should expect a gloomy 2009, but not everyone will be hurt equally.… Read more

Windows 7 takes center 'stage'

Correction, 10:33 a.m. PST: This story initially misstated when a Windows 7 feature-complete beta will be available. It is early 2009.

LOS ANGELES--Choice was the watchword in the Windows 7 discussion Wednesday, as Microsoft aimed to highlight what it sees as its chief advantage over rival Apple.

"A key part of Windows 7 is to enable a full spectrum of choices," senior vice president Steven Sinofsky said in a speech at the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC) here.

While the new Windows will enable high-end machines with multitouch, it will also work on low-end machines. While … Read more

Microsoft hopes to rebuild trust with Windows 7

LOS ANGELES--One of the biggest problems with Windows Vista had nothing to do with the software Microsoft shipped.

It was all of the things Microsoft didn't ship. In the years leading up to Vista's release in November 2006, Microsoft changed course several times, leading to wasted time and energy for hardware and software makers that had made bets on features or timing that later were changed.

In a speech to hardware makers attending the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC), Microsoft's Jon DeVaan said that the company is aiming to rebuild trust that Microsoft will deliver products with … Read more

Windows 7 talk turns to hardware

LOS ANGELES--After unveiling most of the details around Windows 7 to developers last week, this year's Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC) isn't expected to be the barn burner it is in some years.

WinHEC will have the same venue as last week's Professional Developer Conference, the same Windows 7 bits and, indeed much of the same pitch that Microsoft gave last week, albeit with a more hardware-oriented bent.

Still, I expect to find enough tidbits about the OS to make it worth your (and my) time. I'll have full coverage starting Wednesday.

In particular, look for … Read more

ISC East showcases video, surveillance, GPS tech

I spent several hours at ISC East in New York last week to see the latest security hardware and software.

I was disappointed because the conference and expo offered more of the same; nothing really innovative caught my attention, or that of my associates. It seems the industry is focusing on video technology: cameras, DVRs, IP, wireless, remote surveillance, and many flavors of software that all essentially accomplish the same result. There were a few lock manufacturers, alarm distributors, monitoring centers, and access control providers, but I thought the number of exhibitors was relatively slim.

The integration of sophisticated electronics, … Read more

Facebook hosts 10 billion photos

Facebook might not be a photo-sharing site, per se, but there are a heck of a lot of pictures uploaded to it.

On Tuesday night, engineer Doug Beaver wrote a blog post announcing that the total count of photos on the site now stands at about 10 billion. The social network announced informally in August that it has hit 100 million active users worldwide.

To compare, the News Corp.-owned Photobucket, which has a real-time ticker of photos uploaded, stood at slightly less than 6.2 billion photos on Wednesday morning. Flickr, which is owned by Yahoo, hit 2 billion … Read more

Gartner and UBS provide a mixed view on IT spending

Growth in information technology spending next year is expected to go from a modest uptick to a virtual blip, according to a report released Monday by Gartner Research. Meanwhile UBS Securities predicts a more dire outcome.

IT spending is expected to grow 2.3 percent next year, a figure that's down from earlier projections of 5.8 percent growth, according to Gartner. The lowered forecast comes as the markets have been whacked particularly hard over the past two weeks and the credit market has tightened.

"Developed economies, especially in the United States and Western Europe, will be the … Read more

Oracle's hardware gambit: Not so crazy

Larry Ellison is finally in the hardware business. Maybe the second time's a charm.

In the late 1990s, Ellison tried to drum up support for a network-based computer. He barnstormed around the country with Sun Microsystems' Scott McNealy and made the case for a thin-client alternative to the Wintel duopoly. They were so convincing that Intel embarked upon a crash course to squeeze down costs before the NC could ever get going. Intel prevailed in that contest and Ellison moved on.

Now he's back on a considerably bigger scale--not to mention on more familiar turf.

Oracle's announcement this afternoonRead more

Overseas, IBM growth consistently modest

IBM's third-quarter revenues coming out of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa are tracking on a similar growth pattern as the first half of the year, the company announced on Monday in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

Big Blue, which is meeting with European investors, said revenue growth during the first two months of the third quarter is "consistent" with the company's EMEA performance during the first six months of the year.

For IBM, that could bode well for its third quarter, given that the EMEA region accounts for roughly a third of its overall … Read more

Windows 7 details to come in October

Microsoft is launching its Windows 7 blog, but it still doesn't have much to say.

On the plus side, Windows engineering boss Steven Sinofsky did at least put a date to when he would share some more details.

"The Professional Developers Conference (PDC) on October 27 and the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC) the following week both represent the first venues where we will provide in-depth technical information about Windows 7," Sinofsky and Windows Core operating system head Jon Devaan wrote in a posting on Thursday. "This blog will provide context over the next 2+ months … Read more