Number crunching

Vista's big problem: 92 percent of developers ignoring it

And to think Microsoft used to be popular with the developer crowd...

Not anymore. A recent report from Evans Data shows fewer than one in 10 software developers writing applications for Windows Vista this year. Eight percent. This is perhaps made even worse by the corresponding data that shows 49 percent of developers writing applications for Windows XP.

Such appreciation for history is not likely to warm the cockles of Microsoft's heart, especially when Linux is getting lots of love from developers (13 percent writing apps for it this year and 15.5 percent in 2009). The Mac? I don't have any equivalent data via Evans Data. But the Mac OS has rocketed by 380 percent as a targeted development platform, Evans Data told Computerworld.

The numbers don't get much better for Vista in 2009: 24 percent (compared with 29 percent for XP). That's a big step up from 8 percent, but is it a sign of momentum to come or just a temporary stopgap while developers wait until Windows 7?

Nor has Microsoft made it easy to develop Vista applications, according to an article in ITJungle.com:… Read more

Linux takes over Wall Street, but business concerns linger

I laughed when I read Network World's headline: "Wall Street Becoming Linux Stronghold." Is it 1999 or 2008, I wondered? Linux has long found a warm reception on Wall Street, where enterprises view IT as a source for competitive advantage. Network World cites one analyst's estimate that "Linux adoption among the 14 biggest investment firms this year will reach more than 72 percent of the installed operating server base vs. 60 percent in 2006."

That's big.

But the article goes beyond the "Wall Street uses a lot of Linux" argument and hones in on the next round of debate: Now that Wall Street has adopted Linux for technology benefits, are there licensing downsides?

To date, the answer has been 'No.' But this may well be because people haven't thought enough about the requirements open source may impose on Wall Street adoption:… Read more

Linux uses 12 percent less power than Windows 2008, study finds

Network World ran a series of independent tests and discovered that Red Hat Enterprise Linux uses 12 percent less power than Windows Server 2008. The greener operating system by a significant margin? Linux.

As with any benchmarking test, "your mileage may vary" but it's consistent with other findings that Linux is the greener operating system.

So, if you want to save money on rising energy costs, your best bet may well be Linux. Freedom and cost savings...all in one little penguin.

Forrester survey discovers that virtually no one uses open source (?!?)

Forrester just released a new survey, one that begs the question: Who paid for this rubbish?

I generally like Forrester's work, but this survey flies in the face of every piece of research on open source that I've seen in the last five years...including research from Forrester. Also, as the research itself finds, often its survey respondents are using open source even when they don't know it: Nearly half of those surveyed by Forrester who are using open-source frameworks (e.g., Spring) still claim they are not using open source.

Forrester's newest research finds:

Seventy percent of decision-makers responded that they don't have interest or have no plans to adopt open-source software; Only 23 percent of respondents said expanding their use of open-source software was a priority; Security is the main concern around adopting open-source software. Eighty-eight percent of respondents said it was an important or very important concern.

Amazing how open source's greatest strengths are now being used against it. Security? I'm not suggesting that open source is perfect here, but it's one of the primary reasons that people are dumping proprietary software for open source. This is a classic Microsoft spin, and directly contradicts Forrester's own, earlier research that open source offers security advantages, not disadvantages.

Fortunately, if CIOs care to spend even a nanosecond checking Forrester's claims about tepid adoption of open source, there is a wide array of contradictory evidence, including from Forrester:

Earlier this year, Gartner's Mark Driver noted the following: "By 2012, 80 percent or more of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology."… Read more

Will 11 million paid Zimbra mailboxes add up to $66 million?

I was on Zimbra's site today looking for the latest update to its excellent Desktop product, and came across the news that open-source Zimbra now has 11 million paid mailboxes. This might still be small potatoes compared to IBM's Domino and Microsoft's Exchange, but it signals tremendous growth from Zimbra, as a quick Google search confirmed.

Back in October 2006, Techcrunch reported 4 million paid mailboxes for Zimbra. By January 2007, the number had jumped 2 million to 6 million paid mailboxes.

In the space of a year, then, Zimbra has roughly doubled its customer base. Let's correlate this to sales.

The company expected to hit $20 million in 2007 (and was on track to do just that as of September 2007, when Yahoo! acquired Zimbra), the year that it probably bumped up against 9 million paid mailboxes ($2.22 per mailbox). It did $6 million in 2006, the year that it had 4 million paid mailboxes ($1.50 per mailbox). … Read more

Red Hat wins the Japanese IT vote...again

Japan loves Red Hat. At this very moment, hordes of Japanese IT folks are angling for the meishi of their favorite Red Hat salesperson, hoping to do business with the number-one rated IT vendor in Japan, two years running, according to Nikkei Market Access' 2008 survey of 3,000 IT workers.

Last year, Nikkei Market Access surveyed 800 Japanese IT workers, and Red Hat came out on top (with Apple Japan and Willcom coming in second and third, respectively). This year, with 2,200 more IT workers surveyed, Red Hat still won with 32.6 percent of the vote. Second … Read more

CFO survey: 57 percent see adequate returns on IT

Maybe IT doesn't matter, after all. At least, not as much as it should.

A recently released survey of chief financial officers and their views on technology spending found that roughly 57 percent say they are getting an acceptable return on investment (ROI) from their tech spending. Lest you think that the CFOs are too distant from the chief information officer to have a true grasp on ROI, keep in mind that the survey found that 41 percent of organizations have CIOs reporting to CFOs. The Computer Sciences Corporation conducted the annual survey of 629 CFOs in association with the Financial Executives Research Foundation.

Other data from the "Technology Issues for Financial Executives" study was equally interesting:

Among those surveyed, IT spending has increased over the last three years, and is expected to grow in 2008, as well. Greater than 50 percent suggest medium to high ROI on technology investments but only 11 percent reported a "high" ROI.… Read more

Survey finds 54 percent would buy more Microsoft products if it were more open

I've suggested here that Microsoft has little to gain in the short-term from open source, and continue to think that its desktop business will remain a cash cow for many years regardless of what it does. Microsoft could call Windows and Office "squishy bath toys" and people would still buy them out of habit. The "open opportunity" for Microsoft is on the web, but that's a medium to long-term play.

InformationWeek, however, did a survey of 536 business technology professionals and discovered that:

54 percent say they would be more likely to buy Microsoft products if the company were more open (and only 25 percent are asking for lower prices); 81 percent want Microsoft to offer greater integration and interoperability with non-Microsoft products (a need recently raised by UK schools); but… Read more

IT predictions and the sneaky rise of open source

Sometimes our beloved analysts get things dead-on...and sometimes their predictions as to where IT trends will take us are very, very off.

In an excellent article, ZDNet traces the non-demise of Windows and UNIX that analysts predicted, the continued dominance of Microsoft on the desktop (which was supposed to have been supplanted by open-source alternatives by now), and generally blisters our inability to predict the future with regard to open source. It's everywhere, yes, but without the expected dominance that was to come with ominpresence.

One thing it has brought us, however, and that is a significant shift in how all companies engage open source:

...[Apache, Firefox, and Samba] are token victories that mainly offer new options for home users and small businesses. No other open-source application has enjoyed anywhere near the massive commercial success of Linux through its creation of an entire services and support ecosystem.

Instead, they have served as game-changers - motivators to encourage for-profit vendors like IBM and Microsoft to up their game and offer extra value in their respective products.… Read more