It's been a hot year for Netbooks, but not so much for the rest of the portable PC market.
Netbook sales are likely to hit $11.4 billion this year, a 72 percent rise from last year, thanks to a 103 percent leap in shipments, according to a new report from DisplaySearch. But notebook revenue overall will be down around 7 percent from last year.
The latest DisplaySearch Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report, released Tuesday, found that the surge in Netbook (mini-notebook) sales was not enough to offset declines for ultra-portables and larger laptops. Aside from Netbooks, annual revenue will likely be down in every portable PC category.
Though notebook shipments are expected to grow 5 percent for the year, average selling prices (ASPs) will show a 20 percent drop as vendors have slashed prices throughout the year, DisplaySearch has forecasted . Average prices for Netbooks and 13-inch to 16-inch notebooks will probably be down 15 percent for the year, a significant cut as these two categories make up 85 percent of the overall notebook market.
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DisplaySearch)
For 2010, notebook shipments will rise by 16 percent, predicts DisplaySearch, thanks to better than average gains in Netbooks and ultra-portables. The CULV (Consumer Ultra-Low Voltage) market will drive growth with an array of new 11.6-inch and 12-inch portables sporting prices under $500. However, sales next year will likely be flat or down for most portable segments, except desktop replacement, which should enjoy growth of 21 percent over 2009.
The popularity of Netbooks may start to fade next year, DisplaySearch said. Shipments could rise 20 percent, but sales will flatten, and then drop in 2011 as prices come down and performance goes up for ultra-portables and larger notebooks.
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DisplaySearch)
"Our long-term outlook is that the mini-note share of the notebook PC market has stabilized, and will remain at approximately 20 percent through 2011 before starting to erode," said John F. Jacobs, DisplaySearch director of Notebook Market Research, in a statement. "While mini-notes offer lower ASPs and are thinner and lighter than notebook PCs, the performance of larger notebook PCs continues to improve while prices continue to steadily decline, increasing the performance gap while narrowing the price gap."
The biggest consumer electronics event of the year is around the corner, and by that we of course mean CES 2010. We'll all be there in Vegas scouting out the best of what's new, but you may find yourself asking: after Windows 7 and the launch of Core i7 laptops, what else is there to look forward to? Plenty, by our measure. Here are the trends we're expecting to see.
New Atom processors, new Netbooks
The star of the show will likely be Intel's new line of Atom processors for Netbooks. Previously codenamed Pine Trail, these new CPUs will give the Netbooks platform a performance push, we hope, making these popular laptops even more ubiquitous. Currently, Netbooks are great for some tasks, but can be frustrating to use if you need them for all-around computing. Look for added graphics and HD video performance in particular.
On a related note, hardware manufacturers will continue to try to "upscale" Netbooks, by adding features such as discrete graphics, touch screens, and HD displays--all in an effort to move prices past the low-margin $299 mark. We'll see increased stratification in Netbooks--a category previously notable for its commodity nature.
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Qualcomm)
Here come the Smartbooks
If you don't know the term already, get ready to know it, as this will be one of the hot product trends of 2010. Consider them even cheaper and smaller Netbooks toting smartphone-level processors and a pared-down OS. Small CPUs such as the Nvidia Tegra and the Qualcomm Snapdragon are what will power this next generation of devices, and almost none of them will have an operating system that will be Windows or Mac.
Expect to see most of these hybrid devices with 3G antennas, sold in cellphone stores, and subsidized by mobile phone providers, much like some Netbooks already are. Economic realities have pushed computer makers to favor value over flash in designing new systems, and at CES 2010, we're likely to see a bigger focus on Netbooks and other low-cost PCs over the extravagant showstoppers of previous years. Smartbooks could help define a new low-end pricing zone, but it remains to be seen whether they'll offer enough computing power.
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On lower-priced laptops and Netbooks, something typically sacrificed is the ability to link up with an external display through anything but a VGA output. With the Targus USB 2.0 Docking Station with Video (aka the ACP51US) it doesn't even matter what, if any, display output your notebook or Netbook has, though.
Compatible with Windows XP, Vista, and 7 systems, the wedge-shaped dock uses DisplayLink technology to connect to an external monitor up to a resolution of 2,048x1,152 pixels. A single USB 2.0 port on your laptop is all that's needed to add an external monitor, up to four USB devices, Ethernet, speakers, and a mic. Two of the four USB ports are powered, too, in case you need an always-on option for charging a couple USB devices like your cell phone or MP3 player.
This kind of connectivity doesn't come cheaply, however. The docking station will set you back roughly $160.
Buying a laptop, either for yourself or as a gift for someone else, is always a nerve-wracking process (even with our expert help).
To make your holiday shopping a little less tense, we've put together a list of handy laptop resources, including buying guides, shopping tips, and roundups.
Laptop Buying Guide (2009 Edition)
Our basic industry overview looks at the different laptop categories, sample user types, and key components to look for (or avoid). Even better, it's been completely rewritten to cover the latest hardware and industry trends.
Holiday Tech Guide: Laptops and Netbooks
Our little slice of CNET's seasonal gift guide offers best bets in multiple categories, from multimedia powerhouses to budget-friendly systems.
Quick Guide to Netbooks
Wading into the Netbook waters is not as simple as it looks. These once-uniform machines have splintered into many subcategories, each offering different features at different prices. Our handy Netbook guide offers tips and advice for picking ... Read more
More mobile carriers are offering Netbooks as a way to lure new customers--a trend that's likely to surge and encompass notebooks as well.
By 2013, more than 60 percent of all mobile devices, including Netbooks and notebooks, are expected to be sold directly by wireless carriers, according to research released Wednesday by In-Stat. Almost 31 percent of notebooks alone will be sold through carriers, In-Stat predicts.
Bundling an inexpensive Netbook or notebook is a small price to pay for a carrier, which can then charge customers for a monthly data plan.
"In the U.S., carriers are charging up to $60 per month for a two-year contract with the subsidized purchase of a Netbook," In-Stat analyst Jim McGregor said in a statement. "While the subsidy costs the carrier $50 to $100, it generates $1,440 or more in service fees over the life of the contract."
Carriers such as Verizon Wireless, AT&T, and Sprint have already been dangling Netbooks as carrots to attract more ... Read more
Acer recently outpaced Dell as the second largest PC seller in the world. Is No. 1 Hewlett-Packard next on the list?
Acer Chairman J.T. Wang reportedly intends to ship 40 million notebooks in 2010, a number that could help the Taiwanese company challenge and even overtake current champ Hewlett-Packard for the top spot in portable PC sales.
To achieve this goal, Acer is looking to kick up revenue by more than 70 percent over the next three years, said Wang in an interview with Reuters.
Much of that revenue growth is likely to come from an anticipated 50 percent gain in sales for low-cost Netbook PCs. As the economy improves, Wang expects to sell an ever greater number of low-priced, portable PCs, a segment that has been very kind to the company.
As chairman since 2008, Wang has led Acer as its sales and market share have shot up over the past year. And with revenue expected to hit $18 billion this year, he's already targeting the next milestone.
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You wouldn't know to look at it, but this $400 laptop is among the first to come with Windows 7.
(Credit: CompUSA)The Windows 7 systems are coming! The Windows 7 systems are coming! One if by laptop, two if by... Um. Hmm.
As you may possibly have heard by now, the new OS drops this Thursday, October 22. But starting today, you can preorder a 15.6-inch MSI A5000 laptop with Windows 7 for $399.99 shipped.
This is one of the best configurations I've seen at this price, with one small exception: the processor.
It's a 1.8GHz dual-core Celeron T3000. Normally I wouldn't go near a Celeron with a 10-foot pole, but I've seen Windows 7 run at a sprightly clip even on Atom-powered netbooks, so the A5000 should be a decent enough performer.
The rest of the specs look rock-solid: 3GB of RAM, a 250GB hard drive, 802.11n Wi-Fi, and a SuperMulti DVD drive. It even has an HDMI port for connecting an external ... Read more
The Dell Mini apparently isn't Michael Dell's favorite product.
(Credit: CBS interactive)Netbooks aren't for everyone, Dell CEO Michael Dell said Tuesday night at a dinner in Silicon Valley hosted by the Churchill Club.
Give a 10-inch Netbook to someone who's been using a 15-inch notebook, and the user will say, "'Hey, this is fantastic....It's so light,'" Dell said, according to The Register. "But about 36 hours later, they're saying 'The screen's gonna have to go. Give me my 15-inch screen back.'" (Editors' note: Dell also spoke at Oracle OpenWorld on Tuesday, about how his company is delivering a more efficient enterprise with its services. See the ZDNet video on right.)
The fact that Dell would take Netbooks to task in such a way should be a surprise, considering his company sells a line of 10-inch Netbooks. But Tuesday night in Santa Clara, Calif., Dell apparently didn't care. He wanted to make it clear that his company realizes the limits of Netbooks ... Read more
Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
