If the Apple tablet emerges as expected, this will be another big device market, following media players and smartphones, that the PC industry cedes to Apple.
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Tablet: Is this the best WinTel-HP can do?
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)The writing is already on the wall already for Microsoft and smartphones, as spelled out in a previous post and as documented in shrinking market share numbers.
That's not to say that Microsoft, Compaq (later Hewlett-Packard), and Intel didn't have a chance. Remember the Compaq iPAQ PDA that debuted way back in 2000, powered by an Intel StrongARM chip running an early version of Windows Mobile?
That device had a lot of potential. The operative word being "potential." An iPAQ could have been an iPhone. Or at the very least an iPod. And everybody could be drooling over iPAQs today instead of iPhones. Or using iPAQs instead of BlackBerrys. But of course things didn't turn out that way.
Fast forward to 2010 (January?). Apple announces a tablet and suddenly everyone wants a tablet. (Or iSlate, if you will.)
Whatever happened to this Intel-powered Asus MID?
(Credit: Asus)And what have Microsoft, Intel, HP, and others been offering in the interim years when they had every opportunity to come out with a blockbuster tablet? Unattractive, bulky, half-baked convertible laptops that, let's put it this way, have not taken the PC market by storm.
So, here's the $64,000 question, uh, make that the $64 billion question. Why can't the combined R&D smarts, market clout, and overall technological resources of Microsoft-Intel-HP-Dell come up with a thin, sexy compelling tablet and/or media pad that will turn heads and convince the unbelievers (the average why-would-I-need-something-like-that consumer) that a tablet is a must-have product?
Answer: Because Apple will.
Here's a not unlikely scenario. Apple brings out the tablet/media pad, wows U.S. (and world?) consumers, sells a ton of units, Microsoft-Intel-HP-Dell follow suit with slavishly copied devices that don't sell very well comparatively.
iPAQ PDAs: Missed opportunity?
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)That's how the market for successful newfangled devices works these days. Apple creates the market and everyone else follows in a panic.
Then there's the Intel factor. Intel also wants to be a player in this space. But Intel and its coterie of PC makers can't get off the traditional-design laptop gravy train. Plus, as formidable a chipmaker as Intel is, it is still behind the Qualcomms and Texas Instruments of the world in building the power-efficient system-on-a-chip silicon that goes into smartphones and will likely go into tablets.
So, here's my question for Intel et al: How many people will be buying Netbooks or Intel-based MIDs (mobile Internet devices) in 2011 if Apple has a more compelling alternative? Answer: a lot less if the Apple tablet exists.
OLPC tablet concept: Can't a PC maker do this?
(Credit: OLPC)And add Asia-based device makers offering tablets using an Nvidia Tegra 2 chip to that. A number of these tablets are expected too in 2010. In fact, Nvidia is already doing what Intel should have finished doing a long time ago: make a competitive system-on-a-chip that powers small devices. Intel had the chance to make XScale (what StrongARM eventually became) into something big for small devices six years ago. But it didn't. And now Intel is trying to reinvent the wheel by squeezing the upcoming "Moorestown" Atom chip into smartphones.
Intel, I'm sure you think Moorestown is a great idea, but it's a little late. Apple beat you to it by about three years.
On a recent trip to the California desert, with access to both a BlackBerry Storm and an iPhone 3GS, I had a chance to test Verizon's vaunted claims about better coverage.
Anza Borrego Desert State Park, about two hours south of Palm Springs by car, is California's largest state park and covers roughly 1,000 square miles of desert. In other words, it's mostly raw, but stunningly beautiful, wilderness. Over the years, I have often made day trips (alone or with friends/family) to boulder up washes in the surrounding mountains (see photo).
Anza Borrego Desert State Park: looking east towards the Salton Sea: good coverage even here.
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)The largest town in the area, Borrego Springs (the 2000 census put the population at about 2,500), is famous for having rock-solid 2G (and increasingly 3G) coverage for most major carriers. In fact, in the spot shown in the photo (embedded in this post), which was taken after an hour of bouldering up a wash just west of Borrego Springs, there is no hiccup in service.
But Borrego Springs, surrounded by a desert (figuratively) of dead zones, is the exception. Outside of town, in places like the outback of Coyote Canyon or in the desert east of the Shelter Valley area (part of Julian, Calif.), it's very hit or miss. ... Read more
Consumers who want to watch high-resolution HD video on Hulu on the newest crop of Intel-based Netbooks will have to seek out models equipped with special chips from Broadcom or Nvidia.
Broadcom chip will enable HD playback on Netbooks. But will Netbook suppliers use it?
(Credit: Broadcom)Though Intel announced a major makeover of the Atom processor Monday, it's still not powerful enough to handle the highest resolution video.
For playback of high-resolution HD video--such as 1080p--Intel has "validated" an additional Broadcom chip that Netbook suppliers can include in systems, according to Anil Nanduri, director, Netbook Marketing at Intel.
Not coincidentally, on Monday, Broadcom announced the BCM70015 Crystal HD chip for high-resolution video playback. The chip will provide software support for Adobe Flash Player (v10.1) and Windows Media Player (v12), the company said.
The catch is that a consumer will have to confirm whether a new Netbook comes with the Broadcom chip. If the past is any indication, the chip will not be widely available on Netbooks, though Intel's Nanduri added: "I believe there will be some (systems) using that chip." The playback of the lower-resolution 720p HD variety is possible on Intel-only Atom silicon, according to Nanduri.
And there's another, even higher-end option for HD video playback: Netbooks equipped with the new Intel processor and Nvidia's Ion graphics chip. "With Ion you'll be able watch Hulu HD or YouTube HD at either 720 or 1080. With standard Intel components without Ion you won't be able to do that," said David Ragones, product line manager at Nvidia, disputing Intel's claim that the Atom processor can do 720p video playback.
"Another category is Blu-ray video," Ragones said. "If you want to watch the latest Blu-ray movie that just came out, you can absolutely do that on an Ion Nebtook," he said.
Nvidia's Ion also supports gaming, a feature that sets it apart from the Broadcom chip.
New Netbooks with the Nvidia Ion chip will be demonstrated at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January.
Intel is launching the biggest makeover of the Atom processor since the seminal chip debuted in the spring of 2008, and consumers can expect a crush of new Netbooks to follow.
Dozens of Netbooks are now offered at this Fry's Electronics store in southern California
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)As previously reported, Intel's latest N450 processor and NM10 Express chipset--technology that had been previously referred to as "Pine Trail"--will be used in a new raft of Netbooks that will debut at the Consumer Electronics Show in January. Hewlett-Packard, Acer, Dell, Asus, Toshiba, Lenovo and others are expected to either announce new systems before the show or exhibit new models there.
Intel said there will be more than 80 new Netbook designs--typically priced around $350--on the way, with systems coming available by January 4.
The Pine Trail design squeezes the graphics function, previously on a separate chip, onto the central processing unit, or CPU, a first for Intel. The result--by decreasing the number of chips from three to two--is a reduction in the overall chip package size by 60 percent.
"This is the first monolithic processor with the graphics built in and the memory controller built in," said Anil Nanduri, director, Netbook Marketing at Intel, in an interview. The size of the accompanying NM10 "I/O" chipset has also been reduced, Nanduri said.
To the consumer this means better battery life and thinner designs. "We'll see sleeker designs coming into the market and longer battery life," said Nanduri, adding that average power consumption has dropped 20 percent over the previous generation of Atom technology.
"We got more than eight hours of battery life out of this system," said CNET Review's Dan Ackerman, after testing the new Asus Eee PC 1005PE Netbook, which is equipped with the updated Atom silicon.
Intel has integrated the graphics function onto the CPU, resulting in lower overall power consumption
(Credit: Intel)Atom-based systems will be sold primarily with Windows 7 Starter or Home Basic. "These are the ones that hit the right price points," Nanduri said. "The kind of applications you load up as you go into Home Premium--with a much more richer experience--more performance is needed for that," Nanduri said, referring to higher-price Windows Home Premium.
Windows XP Home and Intel's Moblin Linux operating systems will also be supported. Moblin offers some benefits over Windows. "You will get a very snappy experience on Moblin and faster boot times because it's very purpose-built for this category," Nanduri said.
Intel expects robust growth ahead for Netbooks. Nanduri cited numbers from ABI Research that show Netbook annual shipments reaching ... Read more
The quality and speed of the browser is an essential feature for smartphones these days. And it's here that the BlackBerry Storm 2 has some catching up to do vis-a-vis rivals such as the iPhone 3GS.
The Storm 2 is an underrated smartphone in many respects. The interface is clean and easy to navigate, the standard software feature set competitive, and the ability to integrate all email accounts into one screen convenient.
But unbelievably--to me, at least--RIM failed to improve the browser on the Storm 2. Or let me put it this way: RIM failed to make perceptible improvements. (See RIM statement below.)
This is no small oversight. The key reason why the Motorola Droid has been a hit is because it couples a big screen with a high-quality, fast browser--making it the only premium smartphone to date in the U.S. to approach the status of the iPhone.
Which brings us to the gold standard of smartphone browsers: the Safari browser on the iPhone 3GS. This is nothing short of phenomenal. It's the closest a smartphone user can get to the full-fledged browsing on a laptop.
And the browser will only become more important as the smartphone screen size creep continues, from the 3.5-inch diagonal screen on the iPhone 3GS to the 3.7-inch screen on the Droid to the 4.1-inch display on the Toshiba TG01 (sold in Europe).
So, what was RIM thinking? The Storm 2's browser (like its predecessor's--which I had previously been using) can be glacially slow when loading Web sites. So slow that many Storm users opt for downloading the Opera Mini or Bolt browsers. But these browsers have shortcomings of their own, so they don't necessarily serve as satisfactory replacements for the Storm's built-in browser. (The Bolt browser does not zoom and Opera Mini--though blazingly fast--has trouble rendering some Web sites.)
As shown in the embedded videos, which demonstrate the load times for the CNET News page and the zoom features of the two phones, respectively, the iPhone 3GS (bottom) beats the Storm handily.
It is important to note that the Storm 2's built-in browser will speed up significantly if you turn off (uncheck) "Support javascript" in the "Browser Configuration" settings. And in the side-by-side page load-time comparisons with the iPhone 3GS (embedded videos), support for javascript is turned off.
But RIM needs to hurry up and match the competition. A fast, high-quality browser is ... Read more
The Federal Trade Commission needs to do a better study of Intel and chip the market before it pulls the trigger with a veritable scattershot of last-minute accusations.
In addition to the FTC's litany of charges against Intel relating to the chipmaker's alleged anticompetitive behavior in the central processing unit, or CPU, market for PCs, the FTC document also refers to "Intel's unfair methods of competition...and future competition in the relevant GPU (market)." GPUs, or graphics processing units, and CPUs comprise the two main processors in all PCs.
A more thoughtful, studied, and contemporaneous analysis by the FTC would reveal that future personal computing markets are not so much about graphics chips--which is the basis of its new found emphasis on Nvidia as the object of Intel bullying and misbehavior--but about small mobile devices. And here Intel faces a raft of competition and is at least a year behind its rivals.
And that includes Nvidia, whose tiny Tegra processor is already in the Microsoft Zune HD and the Samsung M1 and whose next-generation Tegra 2 chip will be in dozens more handheld devices and smartphones. Intel's current offerings in this space? Zero.
Nvidia's Tegra processor is based on the same ARM design that other competitors use such as Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Samsung, Apple, and Freescale Semiconductor use. And which Nvidia's CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said is expected to account for half of Nvidia's business in a few years.
Unbelievably, the only reference to ARM in the FTC complaint is: "Another example of a non-x86 microprocessor architecture is ARM. ARM is used primarily in handheld devices and mobile phones." One sentence in a 20-plus page document seems oddly dismissive, as though ARM was practically irrelevant to future chip market competitive dynamics as relates to Intel. Especially when you look at it in the context that that FTC is referring to the world's most popular consumer chip architecture--that is, ARM.
How large is this exploding market today? The ARM processor market totaled well over 2 billion units shipped in 2008. The "x86" PC chip market, where Intel and Advanced Micro Devices compete, a fraction of this--a few hundred million.
"The growing market is...a whole swath of interconnected devices and Intel doesn't have much a presence there," said the CEO of ARM Warren East in an interview I had with him recently in Los Angeles. And he accurately asserted that ARM can either match or exceed Intel in market clout and spending because it works, to some extent, in concert with the manufacturers--like TI, Nvidia, Samsung--that collectively have a massive revenue stream to tap into for marketing and research and development. "Well, actually there's about $25 billion of ARM semiconductor revenue coming in through the front door. So, it isn't Intel versus ARM, it's Intel versus everybody else," he said.
And if there is any truth to the Google Netbook rumors, ... Read more
Intel on Thursday previewed new Core processors and graphics technology that will become the pillar of its mainstream chip offerings.
As reported previously, Intel said it will roll out new Intel Core i processors on January 7 at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, including the new i3 chip. These will be based on 32-nanometer technology for the first time. The smaller the geometry, the faster and more power-efficient the processor. Intel's main CPU processors are currently based on 45-nanometer technology.
Intel will introduce 17 new processors in all.
And the chipmaker restated the Core i series lineup. The i7 is its the top-of-the-line processor, the i5 is the midrange, and the new i3 will be the low end.
Intel also discussed its upcoming integrated graphics technology for laptops, which has been referred to as "Arrandale." This will be the first mainstream Intel laptop processor to integrate two processor cores and a graphics function in a single chip package, to deliver better overall power efficiency.
The graphics silicon is based on 45-nanometer technology for the first time, Intel said. The technology will also support Blu-ray playback, and Intel claimed that it is capable of "mainstream gaming."
Intel's integrated graphics chip technology is a focus of the Federal Trade Commission's complaint filed on Wednesday.
Intel is also moving its "Turbo Boost" technology into more Core i5. Turbo Boost speeds up and slows down individual cores to meet processing and power-efficiency needs, respectively.
Nvidia CEO Jen Hsun Huang issued an internal memo today to employees, calling the legal action by the Federal Trade Commission on Wednesday an event that could potentially "transform the computer industry."
The memo follows:
Hi everyone,
The U.S. government announced today that it has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Intel. This is an action the industry needs and one that consumers deserve. And it's one that can completely transform the computer industry.
The facts are clear. The FTC has charged that Intel has used its monopoly illegally to stifle innovation, to keep prices for their products inflated, and to unfairly block competitors. The FTC believes that millions of consumers have paid more and received less quality in return--and that companies and their employees have been forced out of markets where Intel has been threatened.
Nvidia CEO Jen Hsun Huang
Intel is fully aware that great graphics have become one of the most important features for consumer PCs, the fastest-growing segment of the PC market. Even more alarming to Intel is the revolutionary parallel computing technology in our GPUs that is being adopted by software developers across the world. The more successful we became, the bigger threat we were to Intel's monopoly. Instead of creating competitive GPU solutions and competing on the merits of their products, Intel has resorted to unlawful acts to stop us. The FTC announced today that this isn't acceptable.
Nothing this complicated gets decided quickly. It will take months for the FTC case to be heard by an administrative judge who will then recommend a ruling back to the FTC. And it's possible that this decision could be appealed. But today is a huge step forward for all of us that will begin to re-level the playing field.
Today's FTC announcement highlights the industry-changing impact of the GPU and the importance of our work. Our innovation is making the PC magical and amazing again. I can now imagine the day when Intel can no longer block consumers from enjoying our creation and experience computing in a way we know is possible.
Keep innovating...
Jensen
The Federal Trade Commission's complaint against Intel for alleged anticompetitive practices has a new twist: graphics chips.
To date, the antitrust actions of regulators worldwide toward Intel have focused on sale practices for central processing units, or CPUs, a market over which the company has fought heavily with Advanced Micro Devices. On Wednesday, however, the FTC spelled out a litany of allegations about Intel's alleged anticompetitive behavior in the market for graphics-processing units, or GPUs, in which Nvidia is a major player.
Nvidia is the world's leading supplier of "discrete," or standalone, graphics chips but takes a distant second place in overall market share to Intel, which supplies "integrated" graphics built into the chipsets that accompany all of its processors. Mercury Research estimates the total market for graphics chips, including integrated graphics, at almost $10 billion in 2009.
Why graphics, and why now? "It would be really hard to sell the public on expending resources to take Intel through administrative proceedings when it had already paid over a billion dollars to AMD," said Joshua D. Wright, a professor at George Mason University School of Law and a scholar in residence at the Federal Trade Commission until 2008.
"[The FTC] needed to be seen as doing something new," Wright said.
"[Nvidia] becomes the remaining star witness, now that AMD has left the field," said Roger Kay, principal at Endpoint Technologies. "And the FTC's focus, which begins to look toward the future, has to take into account how graphics will fit in as computer technology develops," Kay said.
Intel General Counsel Doug Melamed asserted in a statement that the FTC complaint "is based largely on claims that the FTC added at the last minute and has not investigated," referring to the GPU allegations. And Melamed added in a conference call that some of these GPU allegations were made as recently as December 8.
One of the areas the FTC case zeroes in on is the burgeoning competition for chipsets in Netbooks--small, inexpensive laptops that are typically priced around $350. Netbooks are powered by Intel's Atom processor--and integrated graphics silicon built into the chipset. In this market, Nvidia also sells its Ion chipset, which competes with Intel's integrated graphics product.
... Read moreThe Google phone may use what is probably the fastest smartphone chip on the planet and could become the first non-Windows smartphone to tap into this kind of processing power.
Conspicious among the Google phone's leaked specifications is the Snapdragon processor from Qualcomm. Snapdragon is the first gigahertz-class ARM-based processor to be used in smartphones. (In current implementations, Snapdragon runs at 1GHz.)
The Google phone's Snapdragon processor is one of the fastest smartphone chips.
(Credit: Cory O'Brien via Twitter)And the Google phone (aka, Nexus One) would--if it becomes an actual product--have some interesting company, though both of the rival phones that use the chip are in the Windows Mobile camp: the Toshiba TG01 and HTC HD2.
Interestingly, all of these phones have, relatively speaking, large screens: more than four inches in diagonal size. The Google phone will also add high-resolution (based on an OLED touchscreen) to that.
What's the big picture on all of this? Smartphones are getting larger and more like small tablets (or "media pads"--which is really a more apt description) and their functionality is becoming more akin to personal computers. So, faster processors are necessary (let's not forget Nvidia's Tegra chip or Texas Instrument's OMAP processor) to handle the increasing hardware and software workloads.
Sort of sounds like the old PC mantra. Bigger, better, faster. Bigger storage/memory capacities, better (increasingly sophisticated) operating systems, and faster processors. Which is why Intel is sprinting as fast it can to get its "x86" PC architecture into smartphones. But this market is going to be a hard one to crack for Intel, no matter how much it wows device makers with its technology and marketing clout.
Look no further than Microsoft for proof. Despite its size and status, it is currently losing the smartphone (Windows Mobile) mindshare (and market share) battle to the Apple iPhone. And prospects won't improve with the emergence of devices--such as the Motorola Droid and Google Phone--based on Google's Android operating system, not to mention other popular platforms such as the BlackBerry.
The bottom line is that silicon competition will be varied and vigorous in the smartphone market--unlike the PC space. Which makes the unveiling of every new major smartphone all the more interesting.
Updated on December 15 at 2:20 p.m. PST: adding changes to reflect that it is not yet officially known whether a Google-branded phone would be a commercial product--though a number of reports claim such a phone will be sold next year.
