As Intel readies its most potent chip yet for small devices, Apple may already be using competing technology.
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Apple iPhone 3GS processor
(Credit: iFixit)One of the themes of the upcoming Intel Developer Forum (starting Tuesday) will be the chip giant's foray into the smartphone and mobile Internet device (MID) markets. Intel's current Atom chip is fine for Netbooks but has had little impact on MIDs and zero impact on smartphones, where it is simply too power hungry to be usable.
Enter Moorestown. A much more power efficient Atom chip, due by 2010, that should find its way into high-end LG smartphones, MIDs from Asian device makers, and tablets (from HP? Dell?).
Just so happens that Apple is doing analogous chip development. When Apple acquired chip design firm P.A. Semi in March 2008 it got a team of very capable engineers that, almost certainly, are designing silicon for future iPhones, iPods, and tablets (or "media pads"--choose your nomenclature).
But it's really not even necessary to speculate about the future. The Apple chip has already arrived (see photo). Some analysts believe that the Apple-branded chip in the iPhone is a fairly unique design and that Apple is simply using Samsung as a chip "foundry" or manufacturer. That would mean Apple is already competing with Intel's Atom, not to mention the host of ARM chip suppliers such as Texas Instruments and Qualcomm.
And where might Apple supply its own silicon in the future? Beyond the iPhone--where Intel clearly has nothing to offer currently--there's the expected emerging tablet and MID markets. Make the iPod touch's screen a few inches bigger diagonally, add a few more features and you theoretically have a MID. (Some, of course, will argue that the iPod is already a MID/media player.) Make the screen even bigger (8 to 10 inches), give it more compute and graphics horsepower, and add a few more software and hardware bells and whistles, and you theoretically have a next-generation Apple tablet and/or media pad.
Those are all markets where Intel's Moorestown (and, later, Medfield) will compete.
Apple has a current market capitalization of about $165 billion (Intel's is about $110 billion). Two heavyweights with two competing visions of small devices. Will one of the big battlegrounds of the future be Apple tablets versus Intel-based tablets? Or--perish the thought--an Apple Netbook using an Apple chip instead of an Intel Atom? It's tantalizing to speculate.
And 2010 is just around the corner. It should be an interesting year for fresh new device designs and equally interesting competition between two computer industry Goliaths.
Note: Here's the official Intel description of Moorestown: "Intel's second-generation MID platform, which consists of a System on Chip (codenamed 'Lincroft') that integrates a 45nm Intel Atom processor core, graphics, video and memory controller. The platform also includes an input/output (I/O) hub, codenamed 'Langwell,' that includes a range of I/O blocks and supports wireless solutions.
(See: CNET Reporters Roundtable discussion of IDF and other Intel topics.)
The gadget industry is waiting in suspense, wondering if you're going to buy an Apple tablet. Because if you do, they're going to flip the production line's on switch.
The ultrathin MacBook Air exudes some of the aspects of an expected Apple tablet, according to one analyst.
(Credit: Apple)Apple has a knack for creating new categories of devices. The iPhone arguably created the high-end smartphone segment and the design was parroted by dozens of device makers and carriers. The MacBook Air inspired the ultrathin laptop category.
The expected--and highly anticipated--Apple tablet would do the same. Manufacturing companies in Asia are eager to find a new category of devices to fill up their factories, according to an analyst I spoke with recently who monitors these things.
I will make an exception--which I almost never do--and not identify the analyst. He claims to have seen a prototype of the Apple tablet and would prefer not to be identified. (Yeah, I know, more than a few analysts claim they have seen the furtive device. But I will go out on a limb and say I trust him. He claims the MacBook Air has some of the aesthetic qualities of the tablet.)
The point is that many Asia-based manufacturers would be quite pleased if the Apple tablet was a success and, as a result, ushered in a new device category. Needless to say, companies like Dell, Sony, and Acer would quickly follow suit if consumers started snapping up boatloads of Apple tablets.
But Apple will stay above the fray, according to this analyst, offering a device that's very thin, light--and expensive. In other words, don't expect Apple to bring out a $199 tablet, as you may see from other companies that market a media pad-type device. Apple won't be bashful about charging more than $500.
Competing devices will vary widely. My prediction is that the market outside of an Apple-branded tablet will not be a Windows-Intel enclave. Like cell phones and media players, many tablet devices will likely be offered by carriers and device makers using the ubiquitous ARM processor that runs operating systems like Google's Android or the upcoming Chrome OS.
Why ARM chips? They're cheap, very power efficient (necessary for all-day battery life), and have enough horsepower to make a tablet experience compelling. Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, Samsung, and Nvidia are either offering chips now--or are slated to bring out silicon next year--that can easily scale up from smartphones to larger devices like tablets or media pads.
What's that? Don't think you would buy one? Don't think a tablet fills a market need? Get back to me a year from now when you have a sudden epiphany and find yourself in an Apple Store or Best Buy eying one as an essential adjunct to your inner circle of gadgets.
Where's your comfort zone? Windows, Mac, Linux? An unintellectual, emotional attachment to an operating environment often determines what consumers buy and may determine whether Google Chrome can ultimately compete with Windows.
In the consumer laptop space, specifically Netbooks, there isn't much hope for a Linux-based operating system like Google Chrome in the near term. So, first the bad news.
Market researcher iSuppli released a report Friday that I agree with. It begins with the usual, saying that Google's Linux-based Chrome operating system sets the stage for a battle of the Titans (Google versus Microsoft). But what it said after that affirmed my own convictions (and echoed comments I had heard before from other analysts).
"The small penetration of Linux in Netbooks is not due to any technical shortcomings," said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms research for iSuppli. "Because the vast majority of people who buy Netbooks are consumers, who do not have a high degree of knowledge of the key players in the OS market, they are going with the names that they know. And in PCs, that name is Microsoft."
Asus fold-unfold mobile device concept: a compelling name-brand hardware-software package can change minds
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)The report continues: "For Google to be successful, it needs to promote and position its brand so that non-tech-savvy consumers will be comfortable buying a Netbook running its operating system rather than one from Microsoft. This will be a major challenge."
In other words, it's hard to move people out of their comfort zone, particularly if the alternative is fractured like Linux. But there's a silver lining for Google's OS. The comfort zone is shifting. If consumers spend more time on a social-networking site (Facebook, Twitter) or a Web-based productivity environment (Google search, Gmail, Google docs) that becomes their comfort zone (the so-called "cloud") rather than the Windows, or Apple, desktop.
Of course, that's all just theory unless something else happens. What's that extra something? Give consumers a high-profile, respected brand like Google packaged with a slick Netbook and more than a few more could break their ties with Windows (because it becomes irrelevant). Particularly if the price is right.
It's been done before. A charismatic device like the iPhone proves that. In that case, consumers left the tenuous comfort zone of their interface-challenged cell phones in droves and embraced the iPhone.
But this doesn't happen often. And you need a very big, truly innovative company like Apple or Google to pull it off.
Conversations I had this week with both Texas Instruments and Qualcomm executives offer hope in the long term. TI and Qualcomm are building the chips that Chrome will run on and both have been working with Google. (TI told me that they have the Chrome OS running in some form already on their silicon.) Though Intel also says it is working with Google, I suspect Chrome is more of an ARM processor play than an Intel play.
Whatever happens in the next 12 months or so will be interesting and, at the very least, can only add to growing momentum behind mobile devices using ARM processors and non-Windows operating environments.
Texas Instruments and Qualcomm executives talked Wednesday about the opportunities they see for the just-announced Google Chrome operating system.
Prototype Qualcomm Snapdragon processor-based device
(Credit: Qualcomm)The Chrome operating system is "lightweight," a term that Google uses, meaning the OS runs fine on less hardware. Chrome will initially be targeted at Netbooks--essentially ultra-small laptops--that will be available for consumers in the second half of 2010, according to Google.
Both TI and Qualcomm believe the Google OS will provide more opportunity for new-fangled devices to gain wider acceptance. And both believe this is an opportunity for their respective ARM processors--which power many of the world's cell phones--to gain more ground.
Analysts see the makings of a broad realignment in the computer industry. "What Google is betting on with the Chrome OS (is a) shift in computing and consumer behavior," Charles King, president and principal analyst at Pund-IT, wrote in a research note on Wednesday. "If that scenario truly comes to pass, it could disrupt the efforts of virtually every vendor focused on personal computing."
Texas Instruments, which has been working with Google on the Chrome OS, expects big changes in the design of devices, according to Ramesh Iyer, TI's head of worldwide business development for mobile computing.
"Netbooks are really the tip of the iceberg. We need to fast forward into the future and think of things beyond the Netbook thanks to this initiative from Google," Iyer said in a phone interview. TI's OMAP ARM processor powers a number of cell phones and smartphones including the recently-announced Palm Pre.
"We see the future being cloud computing really. You are walking around with a simple tablet, that is probably no thicker than the thickness of your display. It may have a (physical) keyboard, it may have a soft keyboard. ... Read more
ARM, the company that designs chips for the world's smartphones, said handset makers will deliver the first models using more than one processor core next year, as high-end mobile phones begin to mimic the hardware attributes of PCs.
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Palm Pre
(Credit: Palm )And that means top smartphone suppliers such as Apple and Palm, which both use ARM-based processors, will likely deliver models packing at least two cores inside the main processor--referred to as an application (or applications) processor.
This is a natural progression for high-end smartphones like the iPhone and Palm Pre as the software those phones run gets increasingly sophisticated.
"You'll definitely see handsets shipping with a dual-core A9 in 2010," James Bruce, wireless segment manager for ARM, said in a phone interview earlier this week, referring to the next-generation Cortex-A9 processor from ARM.
The Palm Pre uses a processor based on the current-generation Cortex A8. The iPhone also uses an Apple-branded chip that is based on an ARM design.
"The A8 is just a single core while the A9 will be dual-core, all the way up to quad-core to give smartphones an even bigger performance boost," Bruce said.
He said the move to dual-core phones should happen relatively quickly. "It's very aggressive. It's only going to be in a year's time that you're going to get these phones," he said.
And what about power consumption, a critical concern for smartphones looking to deliver all-day battery life? "What we've done on the A9 is actually make it more power efficient than the A8. The dual-core A9 will be coming out on 45-nanometer rather than the (current) 65-nanometer process," Bruce said. Generally, the smaller the geometries, the faster and more power-efficient the processor is.
Bruce continued. "With the dual-core running at maximum load there's probably going to be an increase of about 10 to 20 percent in power consumption but in general day to day use you're actually going to see better battery life."
... Read more
Texas Instruments raised its outlook for the second quarter Monday, as analog chips and processors for high-end smartphones like the Palm Pre drive sales.
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A Texas Instruments processor is the brain inside the Palm Pre
(Credit: Palm)In a "scheduled update" to its business outlook for the second quarter of 2009, TI said Monday that it expects revenue of between $2.30 and $2.50 billion, compared with the prior estimate of between $1.95 and $2.40 billion. Earnings per share is now expected to be between $0.14 to $0.22, compared with the previous estimate of between $0.01 and $0.15.
Though analog chips are the biggest driver of sequential growth, TI is also seeing a bump in sales of its application processors that go into smartphones such as the Palm Pre. TI's 600MHz OMAP 3430 processor is the brain inside the Pre. The chipmaker also supplies power management, audio, and USB silicon for the Pre.
"Orders were strong in April and May," said Ron Slaymaker, vice president and head of investor relations at TI, in a conference call on Monday afternoon. "We see strength in smartphones--the high-end segment of the market," he said.
And Sprint Nextel executives said Monday that the launch of the Palm Pre on Saturday hit a new sales record for the company. More good news for TI.
The competition to get silicon into the latest and greatest smartphone and mobile Internet device is severe. TI vies for silicon real estate with Samsung, Qualcomm, and Marvell. And the field is getting increasingly crowded: PC industry heavyweights Intel and Nvidia are focusing their considerable resources on the market. Intel, the largest chipmaker in the world, clearly wants to be a major player in the smartphone market by 2011.
And Apple is in the business, too. Though Apple would like it if the iPhone remained a black box (it doesn't matter what's inside, it's the Apple brand on the outside that matters), it is involved in the design of the processors inside its iPhones, according to analysts. The processor inside the iPhone is supplied by Samsung, but branded as an Apple chip.
The TI chip in the Pre is a superscalar design based on the Cortex-A8 core from U.K.-based ARM. The 3430 features "a dedicated level-2 cache and execution of up to twice as many instructions per clock cycle" over previous chips, according to TI documentation. It also integrates a Powervr SGX 2D/3D graphics accelerator.
Texas Instruments sent out a little reminder on Monday that it won't be a cakewalk into the smartphone market for newcomers Intel and Nvidia.
While Intel announced LG Electronics as its first smartphone customer and Nvidia hawks its initial mobile phone technology platforms to prospective customers, TI continues to upgrade its arsenal of ARM-design-based processors, which have been shipping for years to cell phone customers. (Samsung and Palm--and the latter's newest Palm Pre--are among TI's customers.)
At the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on Monday, TI announced a new OMAP 4 mobile chip platform that will allow smartphones to do 1080p video record and playback and integrate 20-megapixel cameras. TI claims the OMAP 4 will deliver 10-times-faster Web page loading times, more than 7 times higher computing performance, and 10 times better graphics performance than its current OMAP processors.
The OMAP 4 processor is based on the dual-core ARM Cortex A9 MPCore supporting symmetric multiprocessing (SMP) and capable of speeds of more than 1GHz per core, according to TI. Basic ARM processor designs are licensed by U.K.-based ARM Holdings to companies like Texas Instruments and Qualcomm that tweak the design and then manufacture the chip.
OMAP 4 platform and development tools are expected to sample in the second half of 2009, with production expected by the second half of 2010.
TI also said Monday that it is adding to the OMAP 3 family with silicon based on 45-nanometer processor technology. (Intel is also using 45-nanometer manufacturing technology for its upcoming Moorestown smartphone chip.)
The OMAP36x series will run at speeds up to 1GHz, offer a dedicated graphics hardware accelerator for 3D gaming, and support 720p high-definition video recording and playback and 12-megapixel cameras.
The silicon is scheduled to sample in the third quarter.
Updated at 4:00 p.m. PST throughout
Texas Instruments posted a sharp drop in profit as it looks to cut 12 percent of its workforce.
TI's fourth-quarter profit fell 86 percent to $107 million, or 8 cents a share, from $756 million in the same period last year, or 54 cents a share. Excluding restructuring charges, TI had earnings of 21 cents a share, exceeding the 12 cents forecast by Wall Street analysts.
Revenue was $2.49 billion, down 30 percent, from $3.56 billion last year. The company also warned that revenue in the first quarter would drop further.
TI, which was ranked the No. 3 chipmaker worldwide in revenue by iSuppli in 2008, said it was cutting 12 percent of its workforce, which includes 1,800 layoffs and 1,600 voluntary departures.
TI's job cuts follow Intel, which said its shuttering of plants would affect more than 5,000 employees, and Advanced Micro Devices, which said it would cut 1,100 jobs.
"We are not counting on a near-term economic rebound for improvement," said Rich Templeton, TI chairman, president and chief executive officer, in a statement.
Charges for workforce reductions will be about $300 million, TI said. Annualized savings from these reductions, plus those announced in October for the restructuring of the company's Wireless business, will be about $700 million after all reductions are complete in the third quarter of 2009, the company said.
Other highlights:
- Orders were $1.86 billion in the fourth quarter, down 47 percent from a year ago
- Inventory was reduced by $200 million in the quarter
- Capital expenditures were $76 million in the quarter, a decline from $181 million in 2007
- For the first quarter of 2009 TI expects revenue of between $1.62 billion and $2.12 billion
- For the first quarter of 2009 TI expects EPS of between $0.11 loss and $0.03 profit
iSuppli releases its preliminary 2008 top-20 chip rankings as semiconductor suppliers fall upon hard times.
Intel, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Toshiba, and STMicroelectronics occupy the top five positions, while Advanced Micro Devices was No. 11 and Nvidia No. 20 in the ranking.
Memory chip manufacturers are some of the hardest hit. South Korea-based Hynix, which dropped from No. 6 to No. 9, and Micron Technology (No. 16) are both restructuring. Micron is reducing staff and shutting down facilities, while Hynix seeks outside investors.
Micron is expected to post a 9.2 percent revenue decrease in 2008 and Hynix's revenue should dive by about 29 percent in 2008, iSuppli said.
The world's largest memory chip supplier and the world's No. 2 chipmaker, Samsung Electronics, is set for a 9.1 percent revenue decline for the year, the market researcher said.
Toshiba, a major flash memory chip manufacturer, is expected to post a 5.9 percent decline in chip revenue in 2008.
iSuppli said 2008 will go down as "a year to forget" for memory chip suppliers.
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Preliminary 2008 worldwide ranking of the top 20 chip suppliers
(Credit: iSuppli)Munich, Germany-based Infineon (No. 10) said Wednesday it expects 2009 revenue to fall at least 15 percent from the previous year. Infineon makes chips for automotive and communications devices, but is also a large player in the memory chip market through its subsidiary Qimonda.
Global semiconductor revenue is expected to decline by 2 percent in 2008 due to a 16.9 percent plunge in sales of memory integrated circuits (ICs), iSuppli said. "Only two out of the Top-29 memory IC suppliers, i.e. companies that are expected to earn roughly $100 million or more in 2008, will see their memory IC revenue grow in 2008. For the memory IC business, 2008 can only be described as disastrous," Dale Ford, senior vice president of market intelligence services for iSuppli, said in a statement.
The downturn in semiconductor revenue in 2008 is not limited to memory suppliers. Six of the top-10 chip suppliers are expected to see revenue falls in 2008, including some companies that are not focused on memory, including Texas Instruments, Renesas Technology, and Sony, according to iSuppli.
"In the face of increasingly negative economic news, orders for semiconductors have virtually stopped," the market researcher said.
"About the only good thing that can be said about the 16.9 percent decline in memory revenue in 2008 is that it pales in comparison to the 48.2 percent plunge in 2001," Ford said.
And a few companies have been performing relatively well. Based on an expected revenue growth of 19.6 percent, Qualcomm is expected to jump five places to No. 8 in the rankings in 2008, up from No. 13 in 2007, iSuppli said.
The next-generation USB specification is slated to be introduced later this month.
USB 3.0 SuperSpeed logo as shown at WinHEC 2008
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)On November 17 the SuperSpeed USB (USB 3.0) Developers Conference, hosted by the USB Implementers Forum in San Jose, Calif., will unveil the USB 3.0 specification to the industry, according to a statement Wednesday from the Implementers Forum.
The USB 3.0 specification, a next-generation high-speed connection standard due in 2009, is significant because all future PCs and devices will use connectors based on it. The spec is also expected to offer 10 times the speed of USB 2.0--used in virtually all PCs introduced in the last few years--or roughly 5 gigabits per second.
Hewlett-Packard, Intel, NEC, NXP Semiconductors, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments are all backers of SuperSpeed USB.
Speaking at the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC) in Los Angeles, USB-IF President Jeff Ravencraft said he expects the final specifications to be made public on November 17.
Intel and Nvidia had been skirmishing over the standard but resolved their differences.
