Intel is expressing Moore's Law anew as packing key technologies into fewer chips. New "Clarksfield," "Arrandale" and "Jasper Forest" processors, among others, will showcase this theme later this month at the Intel Developer Forum.
Intel Vice President Steve Smith discussed the highlights of the annual marquee Intel event that will kick off September 22 in San Francisco in a phone interview on Friday.
"Contrary to speculation that Moore's Law is slowing down or potentially dying, we're here to demonstrate that it's alive and well," Smith said. "Integration gives you a smaller, better, faster, more mobile compute platform," he said. Moore's Law, named after Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years.
This theme will be manifested in a number of new processors including the first mobile processor based on Intel's new Nehalem microarchitecture codenamed Clarksfield and even more highly integrated processors to follow dubbed Arrandale and Clarkdale as Intel moves to its next-generation 32-nanometer manufacturing process.
True to its rich heritage of codenames, IDF can, at times, slide into little more than a series of codename-riddled Power Point slides, with some names sounding frustratingly familiar such as Clarksfield and Clarkdale. But codenames, for better or worse, are part and parcel of IDF.
Intel codename decoder:
- Clarksfield: 45-nanometer Nehalem mobile processor integrating I/O
- Clarkdale: 32-nanometer Nehalem desktop chip integrating graphics with CPU
- Arrandale: 32-nanometer Nehalem mobile chip integrating graphics with CPU
- Moorestown: 32-nanometer system-on-chip Atom for smartphones
- Sodaville: 32-nanometer system-on-chip Atom for consumer
- Pine Trail: new Atom for Netbooks integrating graphics with CPU
- Jasper Forest: 45-nanometer, first Nehalem embedded chip for uses such as storage hardware
- Larrabee: Intel discrete graphics chip that will compete with Nvidia, AMD
- Westmere: 32-nanometer manufacturing process technology
Smith said that Intel's move to the next-generation "Westmere" 32-nanometer manufacturing process will drive even more integration next year. "We have completed development and certification of the 32-nanometer process, which means our factory is fully qualified to run the wafers. And we are actually running Westmere CPU wafers through the factory in support of our Q4 revenue production. Absolutely on track for that Q4 revenue production," he said, referring to commercial production of 32-nanometer processors.
In the more immediate future, Intel will roll out a new mobile processor based on its current 45-nanometer technology. "We just announced Lynnfield (the Core i5 and i7 chips for desktops), Clarksfield is the equivalent product for notebooks," Smith said. "Quad-core, 45-nanometer. Based on Nehalem technology but optimized with power management and integration of the PCI express I/O. Moving from a three-chip solution in the original Nehalem products to two chips--and that is our path going forward." I/O, or input-output, is silicon that enables a processor to talk, and shuttle data, to other parts of the system and peripheral components.
Speaking more specifically about Clarksfield integration, Smith said that "the key elements are integration of memory controller, integration of PCI Express 'gen' 2, power management." Intel will also be talking a lot about a feature called Turbo mode. "Turbo mode is extremely important. If you're not using all the cores, the cores that are not used are powered down. The cores that you are using can run at a faster clock rate with Turbo mode," Smith said.
Smith spoke about the next-generation Atom processor for Netbooks and Nettops, "Pine Trail," too. This chip will also ... Read more
Moore's Law may lapse by 2014, according to iSuppli. The high cost of chip manufacturing--not just the impossibly smaller geometries--may be the biggest threat.
Gordon Moore, former chairman and CEO of Intel
(Credit: Intel)Moore's Law, named after Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years. For more than four decades, chip geometries have gotten smaller and smaller, allowing Moore's Law to remain on track.
By 2014, however, the high cost of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will threaten Moore's Law, "altering the fundamental economics of the industry," according to a report released on Tuesday by iSuppli.
"The usable limit for semiconductor process technology will be reached when chip process geometries shrink to be smaller than 20 nanometers (nm), to 18nm nodes," said Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst, semiconductor manufacturing, for iSuppli. "At those nodes (levels), the industry will start getting to the point where semiconductor manufacturing tools are too expensive to depreciate with volume production, i.e., their costs will be so high, that the value of their lifetime productivity can never justify it."
While further advances in shrinking process geometries can be achieved after the 20-nanometer to 18-nanometer level, Moore's Law will no longer drive volume semiconductor production, iSuppli said.
As a yardstick, Intel is currently in the process of moving to a 32-nanometer manufacturing process. While Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)--the world's largest contract chip manufacturer--has moved to 40-nanometer for chips it makes for companies such as Nvidia.
There are examples of companies that have already found chipmaking prohibitively expensive. Facing possible bankruptcy, Advanced Micro Devices eventually spun off its chipmaking operations. Some Asia-based memory chipmakers have also faced possible extinction because they couldn't invest the staggering sums of money necessary to update production facilities.
The end of Moore's Law has been prophesied more than a few times in the past but chip equipment cost isn't the only thing conspiring against the law. Exponential growth in every industry eventually has to come to an end, according to an April EE Times report quoting IBM Fellow Carl Anderson. He cited railroads and speed increases in the aircraft industry as examples where exponential growth eventually petered out.
"A generation or two of continued exponential growth will likely continue only for leading-edge chips such as multicore microprocessors, but more designers are finding that everyday applications do not require the latest physical designs," Anderson said in the EE Times' report.
Until 2014, however, the race continues. Globalfoundries, the joint company owned by AMD and Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Development, said Tuesday that "the semiconductor industry is celebrated for overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds to continue the trend toward smaller, faster, and more energy-efficient products" and, in partnership with IBM, announced research that will enable the continued scaling of semiconductor components to the 22-nanometer level and beyond.
And Intel on Thursday will show off new research that will demonstrate the company's latest advancements with its chip manufacturing technology.
Moore's Law is maxing out. This is an oft-made prediction in the computer industry. The latest to chime in is an IBM fellow, according to a report.
Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted in 1965 that the number of transistors on a microprocessor would double approximately every two years--a prediction that has proved to be remarkably resilient. But IBM Fellow Carl Anderson, who researches server computer design at IBM, claims the end of the era of Moore's Law is nigh, according to a report in EE Times.
Exponential growth in every industry eventually has to come to an end, according Anderson, who cited railroads and speed increases in the aircraft industry, the report said.
"A generation or two of continued exponential growth will likely continue only for leading-edge chips such as multicore microprocessors, but more designers are finding that everyday applications do not require the latest physical designs," Anderson said in the EE Times' report. Anderson also cited the staggering costs of research and fabs (factories) as a formidable barrier for continued advancement. Few companies can afford chip plants that typically cost billions of dollars to build and maintain.
So, what does the future hold? Anderson cited three technologies: optical interconnects, 3D chips--which have circuits and components stacked on top of each other--and accelerator-based processing as seeing significant advancements, the report said. The latter technology, accelerators, is hot right now.
In addition to IBM, companies such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices' ATI unit supply graphics-processor-based computers to accelerate scientific, engineering, and animation applications. Intel is also expected to bring out its Larrabee chip later this year or early next year that can be used as an accelerator.
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