For Nvidia, the success of its widely-rumored Intel-compatible x86 technology is, to put it charitably, uncertain. And comments from an analyst Monday point to marketing challenges.
Amid the rumors about a skunkworks project at Nvidia to develop an x86 technology that would compete at some level with Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, the obvious--though often overlooked--fact is that Nvidia would face multifarious challenges.
A research note Monday from Broadpoint AmTech analyst Doug Freedman (who downgraded Nvidia to "sell") pointed to some of the marketing challenges. Though Freedman says recent actions by the Federal Trade Commission "could open the door to (an) x86 CPU product" from Nvidia, he quickly qualifies this. "We believe investors could be underestimating the effort and timeline as the cost of working with supply chain partners is much greater than presently accounted for in NVDA's spending model," he wrote.
The note continues. "We do not believe a product that is mainstream in performance would sell well given that the Nvidia brand is not as well-known outside the high-end gamer community or the investment community. A major media push would be required for mainstream success," Freedman wrote.
This presumes, of course, that the company could overcome the Everest-like development (and legal) hurdles. And it isn't known yet what form an Nvidia x86 chip would take and how it might be used by the company. "Until I know what type of product they are working on and it's target market, I can not comment on chances of success," said Freedman in response to an e-mail query.
But this much can be said: the challenges for any x86 "clone" maker that goes head to head with Intel are self-evident. Look no further than AMD--the most "successful" Intel rival--which after teetering on the edge of bankruptcy for a couple of years almost imploded in 2008.
Updated at 5:30 p.m. PST: throughout.
Thought that the newest laptop technology is always priced at a premium? Think again. Due in the next few weeks from Hewlett-Packard, Toshiba, Gateway and a host of other PC makers, some of the first laptops using Intel's new Core i3 processor will be priced as low as $700.
At the Consumer Electronics Show, which starts January 7, PC makers will debut laptops using Intel's freshly minted Core i3 processor, as was previously reported. Core i series processors are based on Intel's Nehalem microarchitecture. In 2010, the chipmaker will move most of its processor lines from the current Core 2 technology to the Core i design.
Core i3-based laptops are, in a word, cheap. Cheap in the context that these are systems using a brand new processor based on a new Intel microarchitecture--in the past, this kind of technology has commanded a steep premium. A system from HP now posted on online retailer eCost is priced at $865. And a Gateway laptop listed on Canadian retailer Future Shop is priced at $730 Canadian dollars or about $694 U.S. dollars.
And add a Toshiba system to the mix (priced at $799 Canadian dollars or about $763 U.S. dollars). The Toshiba Satellite (PSLS6C-00F005) packs the same Core i3 processor but uses a 16-inch screen, according to a posting on Future Shop.
HP Core i3-based Pavilion laptop (WA786UA#ABA) as listed by eCost:
- Processor: 2.13GHz Intel Core i3-330m
- Display: 15.6" LED
- Memory: 4096MB DDR3
- Hard disk drive: 320GB 7200rpm
- Optical drive: DVDRW
- Operating system: Windows 7 Professional 64-bit
- Video card: Intel Integrated Graphics Media Accelerator HD
- Price listed by eCost: $864.99
The $694 Gateway system has the same screen size (listed with a 1600 x 900 native resolution) and memory configuration as the HP laptop but ups the ante with a 500GB hard disk drive and, most interestingly, uses an as-yet-unannounced ATI Mobility Radeon HD 5470 graphics chip instead of Intel's graphics silicon.
Gateway Core i3-based laptop is below $700
(Credit: Future Shop)Product specifications aside, one of the most anticipated laptop technologies at CES this year is Arrandale, the codename for Intel Core i series mobile processors targeted at the mainstream laptop market. The Arrandale-based Core i3 is the first mainstream Intel laptop processor to combine two processor cores and a graphics function together in one chip package (previously, the graphics chip was in a separate chipset), resulting in better overall power efficiency.
And the new built-in graphics technology will offer better graphics performance than current technology, according to Intel. The chipmaker will try in earnest to prove this at CES with plenty of demos showing off Arrandale's graphics prowess. (Though not all PC makers are convinced that Intel's new graphics technology is the way to go, as evidenced by Gateway's decision to use a discrete ATI graphics processor from Advanced Micro Devices).
One thing worth noting is that the Core i3 won't ... Read More
If the Apple tablet emerges as expected, this will be another big device market, following media players and smartphones, that the PC industry cedes to Apple.
Tablet: Is this the best WinTel-HP can do?
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)The writing is already on the wall already for Microsoft and smartphones, as spelled out in a previous post and as documented in shrinking market share numbers.
That's not to say that Microsoft, Compaq (later Hewlett-Packard), and Intel didn't have a chance. Remember the Compaq iPAQ PDA that debuted way back in 2000, powered by an Intel StrongARM chip running an early version of Windows Mobile?
That device had a lot of potential. The operative word being "potential." An iPAQ could have been an iPhone. Or at the very least an iPod. And everybody could be drooling over iPAQs today instead of iPhones. Or using iPAQs instead of BlackBerrys. But of course things didn't turn out that way.
Fast forward to 2010 (January?). Apple announces a tablet and suddenly everyone wants a tablet. (Or iSlate, if you will.)
Whatever happened to this Intel-powered Asus MID?
(Credit: Asus)And what have Microsoft, Intel, HP, and others been offering in the interim years when they had every opportunity to come out with a blockbuster tablet? Unattractive, bulky, half-baked convertible laptops that, let's put it this way, have not taken the PC market by storm.
So, here's the $64,000 question, uh, make that the $64 billion question. Why can't the combined R&D smarts, market clout, and overall technological resources of Microsoft-Intel-HP-Dell come up with a thin, sexy compelling tablet and/or media pad that will turn heads and convince the unbelievers (the average why-would-I-need-something-like-that consumer) that a tablet is a must-have product?
Answer: Because Apple will.
Here's a not unlikely scenario. Apple brings out the tablet/media pad, wows U.S. (and world?) consumers, sells a ton of units, Microsoft-Intel-HP-Dell follow suit with slavishly copied devices that don't sell very well comparatively.
iPAQ PDAs: Missed opportunity?
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)That's how the market for successful newfangled devices works these days. Apple creates the market and everyone else follows in a panic.
Then there's the Intel factor. Intel also wants to be a player in this space. But Intel and its coterie of PC makers can't get off the traditional-design laptop gravy train. Plus, as formidable a chipmaker as Intel is, it is still behind the Qualcomms and Texas Instruments of the world in building the power-efficient system-on-a-chip silicon that goes into smartphones and will likely go into tablets.
So, here's my question for Intel et al: How many people will be buying Netbooks or Intel-based MIDs (mobile Internet devices) in 2011 if Apple has a more compelling alternative? Answer: a lot less if the Apple tablet exists.
OLPC tablet concept: Can't a PC maker do this?
(Credit: OLPC)And add Asia-based device makers offering tablets using an Nvidia Tegra 2 chip to that. A number of these tablets are expected too in 2010. In fact, Nvidia is already doing what Intel should have finished doing a long time ago: make a competitive system-on-a-chip that powers small devices. Intel had the chance to make XScale (what StrongARM eventually became) into something big for small devices six years ago. But it didn't. And now Intel is trying to reinvent the wheel by squeezing the upcoming "Moorestown" Atom chip into smartphones.
Intel, I'm sure you think Moorestown is a great idea, but it's a little late. Apple beat you to it by about three years.
Consumers who want to watch high-resolution HD video on Hulu on the newest crop of Intel-based Netbooks will have to seek out models equipped with special chips from Broadcom or Nvidia.
Broadcom chip will enable HD playback on Netbooks. But will Netbook suppliers use it?
(Credit: Broadcom)Though Intel announced a major makeover of the Atom processor Monday, it's still not powerful enough to handle the highest resolution video.
For playback of high-resolution HD video--such as 1080p--Intel has "validated" an additional Broadcom chip that Netbook suppliers can include in systems, according to Anil Nanduri, director, Netbook Marketing at Intel.
Not coincidentally, on Monday, Broadcom announced the BCM70015 Crystal HD chip for high-resolution video playback. The chip will provide software support for Adobe Flash Player (v10.1) and Windows Media Player (v12), the company said.
The catch is that a consumer will have to confirm whether a new Netbook comes with the Broadcom chip. If the past is any indication, the chip will not be widely available on Netbooks, though Intel's Nanduri added: "I believe there will be some (systems) using that chip." The playback of the lower-resolution 720p HD variety is possible on Intel-only Atom silicon, according to Nanduri.
And there's another, even higher-end option for HD video playback: Netbooks equipped with the new Intel processor and Nvidia's Ion graphics chip. "With Ion you'll be able watch Hulu HD or YouTube HD at either 720 or 1080. With standard Intel components without Ion you won't be able to do that," said David Ragones, product line manager at Nvidia, disputing Intel's claim that the Atom processor can do 720p video playback.
"Another category is Blu-ray video," Ragones said. "If you want to watch the latest Blu-ray movie that just came out, you can absolutely do that on an Ion Nebtook," he said.
Nvidia's Ion also supports gaming, a feature that sets it apart from the Broadcom chip.
New Netbooks with the Nvidia Ion chip will be demonstrated at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January.
Intel is launching the biggest makeover of the Atom processor since the seminal chip debuted in the spring of 2008, and consumers can expect a crush of new Netbooks to follow.
Dozens of Netbooks are now offered at this Fry's Electronics store in southern California
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)As previously reported, Intel's latest N450 processor and NM10 Express chipset--technology that had been previously referred to as "Pine Trail"--will be used in a new raft of Netbooks that will debut at the Consumer Electronics Show in January. Hewlett-Packard, Acer, Dell, Asus, Toshiba, Lenovo and others are expected to either announce new systems before the show or exhibit new models there.
Intel said there will be more than 80 new Netbook designs--typically priced around $350--on the way, with systems coming available by January 4.
The Pine Trail design squeezes the graphics function, previously on a separate chip, onto the central processing unit, or CPU, a first for Intel. The result--by decreasing the number of chips from three to two--is a reduction in the overall chip package size by 60 percent.
"This is the first monolithic processor with the graphics built in and the memory controller built in," said Anil Nanduri, director, Netbook Marketing at Intel, in an interview. The size of the accompanying NM10 "I/O" chipset has also been reduced, Nanduri said.
To the consumer this means better battery life and thinner designs. "We'll see sleeker designs coming into the market and longer battery life," said Nanduri, adding that average power consumption has dropped 20 percent over the previous generation of Atom technology.
"We got more than eight hours of battery life out of this system," said CNET Review's Dan Ackerman, after testing the new Asus Eee PC 1005PE Netbook, which is equipped with the updated Atom silicon.
Intel has integrated the graphics function onto the CPU, resulting in lower overall power consumption
(Credit: Intel)Atom-based systems will be sold primarily with Windows 7 Starter or Home Basic. "These are the ones that hit the right price points," Nanduri said. "The kind of applications you load up as you go into Home Premium--with a much more richer experience--more performance is needed for that," Nanduri said, referring to higher-price Windows Home Premium.
Windows XP Home and Intel's Moblin Linux operating systems will also be supported. Moblin offers some benefits over Windows. "You will get a very snappy experience on Moblin and faster boot times because it's very purpose-built for this category," Nanduri said.
Intel expects robust growth ahead for Netbooks. Nanduri cited numbers from ABI Research that show Netbook annual shipments reaching ... Read More
The Federal Trade Commission needs to do a better study of Intel and chip the market before it pulls the trigger with a veritable scattershot of last-minute accusations.
In addition to the FTC's litany of charges against Intel relating to the chipmaker's alleged anticompetitive behavior in the central processing unit, or CPU, market for PCs, the FTC document also refers to "Intel's unfair methods of competition...and future competition in the relevant GPU (market)." GPUs, or graphics processing units, and CPUs comprise the two main processors in all PCs.
A more thoughtful, studied, and contemporaneous analysis by the FTC would reveal that future personal computing markets are not so much about graphics chips--which is the basis of its new found emphasis on Nvidia as the object of Intel bullying and misbehavior--but about small mobile devices. And here Intel faces a raft of competition and is at least a year behind its rivals.
And that includes Nvidia, whose tiny Tegra processor is already in the Microsoft Zune HD and the Samsung M1 and whose next-generation Tegra 2 chip will be in dozens more handheld devices and smartphones. Intel's current offerings in this space? Zero.
Nvidia's Tegra processor is based on the same ARM design that other competitors use such as Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Samsung, Apple, and Freescale Semiconductor use. And which Nvidia's CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said is expected to account for half of Nvidia's business in a few years.
Unbelievably, the only reference to ARM in the FTC complaint is: "Another example of a non-x86 microprocessor architecture is ARM. ARM is used primarily in handheld devices and mobile phones." One sentence in a 20-plus page document seems oddly dismissive, as though ARM was practically irrelevant to future chip market competitive dynamics as relates to Intel. Especially when you look at it in the context that that FTC is referring to the world's most popular consumer chip architecture--that is, ARM.
How large is this exploding market today? The ARM processor market totaled well over 2 billion units shipped in 2008. The "x86" PC chip market, where Intel and Advanced Micro Devices compete, a fraction of this--a few hundred million.
"The growing market is...a whole swath of interconnected devices and Intel doesn't have much a presence there," said the CEO of ARM Warren East in an interview I had with him recently in Los Angeles. And he accurately asserted that ARM can either match or exceed Intel in market clout and spending because it works, to some extent, in concert with the manufacturers--like TI, Nvidia, Samsung--that collectively have a massive revenue stream to tap into for marketing and research and development. "Well, actually there's about $25 billion of ARM semiconductor revenue coming in through the front door. So, it isn't Intel versus ARM, it's Intel versus everybody else," he said.
And if there is any truth to the Google Netbook rumors, ... Read More
Intel on Thursday previewed new Core processors and graphics technology that will become the pillar of its mainstream chip offerings.
As reported previously, Intel said it will roll out new Intel Core i processors on January 7 at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, including the new i3 chip. These will be based on 32-nanometer technology for the first time. The smaller the geometry, the faster and more power-efficient the processor. Intel's main CPU processors are currently based on 45-nanometer technology.
Intel will introduce 17 new processors in all.
And the chipmaker restated the Core i series lineup. The i7 is its the top-of-the-line processor, the i5 is the midrange, and the new i3 will be the low end.
Intel also discussed its upcoming integrated graphics technology for laptops, which has been referred to as "Arrandale." This will be the first mainstream Intel laptop processor to integrate two processor cores and a graphics function in a single chip package, to deliver better overall power efficiency.
The graphics silicon is based on 45-nanometer technology for the first time, Intel said. The technology will also support Blu-ray playback, and Intel claimed that it is capable of "mainstream gaming."
Intel's integrated graphics chip technology is a focus of the Federal Trade Commission's complaint filed on Wednesday.
Intel is also moving its "Turbo Boost" technology into more Core i5. Turbo Boost speeds up and slows down individual cores to meet processing and power-efficiency needs, respectively.
Nvidia CEO Jen Hsun Huang issued an internal memo today to employees, calling the legal action by the Federal Trade Commission on Wednesday an event that could potentially "transform the computer industry."
The memo follows:
Hi everyone,
The U.S. government announced today that it has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Intel. This is an action the industry needs and one that consumers deserve. And it's one that can completely transform the computer industry.
The facts are clear. The FTC has charged that Intel has used its monopoly illegally to stifle innovation, to keep prices for their products inflated, and to unfairly block competitors. The FTC believes that millions of consumers have paid more and received less quality in return--and that companies and their employees have been forced out of markets where Intel has been threatened.
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Nvidia CEO Jen Hsun Huang
Intel is fully aware that great graphics have become one of the most important features for consumer PCs, the fastest-growing segment of the PC market. Even more alarming to Intel is the revolutionary parallel computing technology in our GPUs that is being adopted by software developers across the world. The more successful we became, the bigger threat we were to Intel's monopoly. Instead of creating competitive GPU solutions and competing on the merits of their products, Intel has resorted to unlawful acts to stop us. The FTC announced today that this isn't acceptable.
Nothing this complicated gets decided quickly. It will take months for the FTC case to be heard by an administrative judge who will then recommend a ruling back to the FTC. And it's possible that this decision could be appealed. But today is a huge step forward for all of us that will begin to re-level the playing field.
Today's FTC announcement highlights the industry-changing impact of the GPU and the importance of our work. Our innovation is making the PC magical and amazing again. I can now imagine the day when Intel can no longer block consumers from enjoying our creation and experience computing in a way we know is possible.
Keep innovating...
Jensen
The Federal Trade Commission's complaint against Intel for alleged anticompetitive practices has a new twist: graphics chips.
To date, the antitrust actions of regulators worldwide toward Intel have focused on sale practices for central processing units, or CPUs, a market over which the company has fought heavily with Advanced Micro Devices. On Wednesday, however, the FTC spelled out a litany of allegations about Intel's alleged anticompetitive behavior in the market for graphics-processing units, or GPUs, in which Nvidia is a major player.
Nvidia is the world's leading supplier of "discrete," or standalone, graphics chips but takes a distant second place in overall market share to Intel, which supplies "integrated" graphics built into the chipsets that accompany all of its processors. Mercury Research estimates the total market for graphics chips, including integrated graphics, at almost $10 billion in 2009.
Why graphics, and why now? "It would be really hard to sell the public on expending resources to take Intel through administrative proceedings when it had already paid over a billion dollars to AMD," said Joshua D. Wright, a professor at George Mason University School of Law and a scholar in residence at the Federal Trade Commission until 2008.
"[The FTC] needed to be seen as doing something new," Wright said.
"[Nvidia] becomes the remaining star witness, now that AMD has left the field," said Roger Kay, principal at Endpoint Technologies. "And the FTC's focus, which begins to look toward the future, has to take into account how graphics will fit in as computer technology develops," Kay said.
Intel General Counsel Doug Melamed asserted in a statement that the FTC complaint "is based largely on claims that the FTC added at the last minute and has not investigated," referring to the GPU allegations. And Melamed added in a conference call that some of these GPU allegations were made as recently as December 8.
One of the areas the FTC case zeroes in on is the burgeoning competition for chipsets in Netbooks--small, inexpensive laptops that are typically priced around $350. Netbooks are powered by Intel's Atom processor--and integrated graphics silicon built into the chipset. In this market, Nvidia also sells its Ion chipset, which competes with Intel's integrated graphics product.
... Read MoreIntel is about to roll out some pretty impressive mobile processors, finally bringing its "Nehalem" Core i architecture to the mainstream mobile space. So, what can we expect from Apple?
First, a little recent history. Apple, so far, has elected not to use the Core i7 quad-core mobile processors announced back in September in its MacBook Pro line. Which isn't that surprising. The first crop of laptop i7s barely qualify as mobile processors: they have a desktop-like TDP (thermal design power) of 45 watts that wreaks havoc on battery life.
That said, as an example of what an Apple rival has chosen to do, the Hewlett-Packard Envy 15 now offers both the i7-720QM (1.6GHz, 6MB cache) and i7-820QM (1.73GHz, 8MB Cache)--both quad-core Core i7 processors.
A big imponderable is whether Apple will adopt a future 32-nanometer version of the quad-core mobile i series for the 17-inch MacBook Pro. Presumably, this would have a lower TDP and be more amenable to Apple.
Now, for some armchair analysis. Arrandale: One of the burning questions (at least among some in the tech media) is whether new MacBooks will use Intel's "Arrandale" mobile Core i series of processors. Arrandale is significant for two reasons: it is part of Intel's 32-nanometer chip roll-out and is the first instance of Intel combining the graphics function with the main "CPU" processor. This results in better overall power efficiency and integrated graphics performance that "doesn't suck" anymore, as some observers have put it.
One school of thought is that Apple will not use the processor. If there is any truth to that rumor, that makes for a head-scratching scenario since Arrandale will be the pillar of the mobile Core i3 and i5 lineups. A likely scenario is that Apple--one way or another--chooses to attach Nvidia or ATI discrete graphics processors to Arrandale, or a facsimile thereof.
Nvidia or ATI: And speaking of Nvidia and ATI, instead of trying to second-guess Apple on all of the possible graphics chip permutations, the easier question to ask is: which graphics chip supplier will prevail this time around? Nvidia--despite defects in some of its past offerings--has been dominant over the last year or so across the MacBook lineup. Will this continue? Or will Apple strike more of a balance between Nvidia and ATI?
Remember, that Apple is touting the general compute function of the graphics processing unit, or GPU, in OS X Snow Leopard. "Now a new technology in Mac OS X Snow Leopard called OpenCL takes the power of graphics processors and makes it available for general-purpose computing," according to Apple ad copy. (Translation: using the GPU more like general-purpose CPU.) Are Nvidia and ATI OpenCL equals?
MacBook Air: And what, pray tell, will happen to the MacBook Air? Which is coming up on its second anniversary in January. I won't venture a guess (not yet at least), though I have a personal interest in this subject since I have been using an Air since February 2008.
Blu-ray: And finally, next-generation optical drives. Will MacBook Pros finally get Blu-ray? Maybe. There seems to be some pessimism about Apple adopting Blu-ray, as reader comments (and threads on other forums) suggest.
Apple, in all of its wisdom, will provide the answers to these questions soon enough.
Updated at 6:05 p.m. PST: adding Blu-ray discussion.






