Nanotech - The Circuits Blog

LAS VEGAS--If you haven't noticed, Toshiba doesn't offer a Netbook for the U.S. market.

Yes, that's right Toshiba--whose name is practically synonymous with laptops--is still undecided about committing to one of the hottest mobile PC markets in the U.S., according to Toshiba officials at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Thursday.

The Japanese company did launch the NB100 Netbook in December, but it is not marketed in the U.S., according to a Toshiba representative, speaking at CES.

Toshiba NB100 Netbook is marketed in Latin America

(Credit: Brooke Crothers)

This highlights the Netbook quandary some of the largest mobile computer markers are facing. Throw Sony into the we don't-offer-a-Netbook-either category. This week Sony launched the pricey Vaio Lifestyle PC that it is very careful to bill as the "world's lightest 8-inch notebook." It costs a cool $900--which does tend to disqualify it as Netbook since Netbooks are, by definition, inexpensive (typically under $400 and only occasionally venturing into $600 or $700 territory when, for example, a 3G Wireless Wide Area Network, or WWAN, option is added.)

Listening to a Toshiba representative at CES, the company seems genuinely perplexed by the Netbook category. Where is the real value-add? What if Netbooks begin eating into its notebook line?

On the latter point, Toshiba, like Sony and Apple, may also be worried about getting consumers hooked on low-cost laptops.

(Note: The Toshiba NB100 is marketed in Latin America, according to the representative.)

Intel's fourth-quarter warning is not only bad news but bad timing. With the Consumer Electronics Show kicking off Thursday adorned by all those bright, shiny gadgets, Intel effectively said: gadgets maybe, but not so bright and shiny.

And for an Intel warning, this one was particularly dire. The biggest chip bellwether said it now expects only $8.2 billion in revenue for the quarter, a 23 percent drop from the year-earlier period, and 20 percent from the third quarter. And this comes after issuing a warning on November 12.

So what's happening? The clearest example of the gloom that has descended on the chip industry, and by extension computer and gadget makers, came relatively early from another chip bellwether, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company -- the largest chip contract manufacturer, which supplies chips to all the first-tier electronics and computer makers. Back on October 30, TSMC issued a forecast that set the tone for the rest of the industry: CEO Rick Tsai said the supply chain -- the myriad of companies that order chips from TSMC -- was "reducing inventory very aggressively."

That supply chain, either directly or indirectly, is the computer and gadget makers of the world.

So going into CES, the picture is not pretty. "We just heard consumer electronics sales over the holidays were down 26 percent year to year," said Broadpoint AmTech analyst Doug Freedman. "You want to head into CES with a pall over it? There it is, right there."

And go the other way, up the supply chain -- the chip gear makers who supply production equipment to chip companies -- and things are even more bleak, with some gear makers saying they don't expect any orders at all in 2009 for certain categories of equipment. In December, Netherlands-based ASML CEO Eric Meurice said that "never before have we witnessed such a sharp and sudden fall-off in lithography system demand."

Other examples are almost too numerous to list: for starters, Toshiba and SanDisk slashing flash memory output 30 percent, Taiwan's memory chip industry on the verge of collapse, and Micron Technology posting a massive $706 million loss.

Yes, there's probably a silver lining in all of this, in that chipmakers and gadget suppliers have to cut the fat and become lean and mean, but where does it end?

And how will this downturn transform the computer industry? Looking at it through the prism of Netbooks -- which are expected to catch much of the limelight at CES -- may provide some insight. These cheap laptop computers are on fire, partially because they are compelling designs but mostly because of price. Good thing? Yeah, great for consumers and small businesses that are finally realizing they don't have to pay $2,000 for a small, lightweight ultraportable notebook. Or simply can't afford a $1,000 notebook.

But not so great for Intel, Apple, and others. "What is the most expensive laptop out there? The Apple (MacBook) Air," said Freedman. "That's a $1,500 or $2,000 machine. Now all of a sudden I'm giving you ultraportability for $500," he said, referring to the price of a Netbook.

In this sense, over-priced notebooks could be seen as roughly equivalent to large SUVs -- overkill. Just as General Motors must wean itself off lumbering SUVs, so may Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Sony, Toshiba, et al., be forced, to some extent, to wean themselves off high-profit notebook computers. After all, what took Sony so long to bring out a Netbook? And why don't we see an Apple Netbook? It's not a stretch to say that those companies don't like the idea of selling a lot of inexpensive computers.

At CES, companies will be hawking flashy gadgets, as always, and maybe attendees can suspend disbelief for a few days blinded by the glare of the gadgets. But that's really just lipstick on a pig.

Updated on December 18 at 3:25 p.m. with pricing information.

Toshiba said Wednesday that it will showcase a 512GB solid-state drive at the Consumer Electronics Show next month and begin shipments in the second quarter of 2009.

Toshiba 512GB solid-state drive rivals hard disks in capacity

(Credit: Toshiba)

To date, this would be one of the largest-capacity solid-state drives for use in laptops and come close to matching the size of mobile hard-disk drives.

Samsung has begun mass production of a 256GB SSD and Micron Technology is readying a 256GB drive that will ship in March.

Toshiba said it is releasing a broad family of "fast read/write SSDs" based on 43-nanometer Multi-Level Cell (MLC) NAND flash technology that will be showcased at CES. MLC technology allows solid-state drive makers to deliver higher capacity drives at lower prices.

In addition to the 2.5-inch 512GB drive, the new series of Toshiba drives also includes capacities of 64GB, 128GB, and 256GB, offered in 1.8-inch or 2.5-inch drive enclosures or as SSD Flash Modules, the company said in a statement.

Samples of the new drives will be available in the first quarter of 2009, with mass production slated for the second quarter, in the April to June time frame, according to the company.

Pricing in sample quantities ranges from $220 for the 64GB drive to $1,652 for the 512GB drive, Toshiba said.

The drives achieve a maximum sequential read speed of 240MB per second (MBps) and maximum sequential write speed of 200MBps. This is roughly the same read-write speeds offered by Samsung on its 256GB SSD.

Toshiba said it sees SSDs growing to approximately 25 percent of the notebook market by 2012.