Nanotech - The Circuits Blog

Cages at Best Buy are stocked with new models preloaded with Windows 7: behind bars until October 22.

(Credit: Brooke Crothers)

Best Buy is locked and loaded for the Windows 7 launch.

And I don't use the phrase "locked and loaded" figuratively. "Locked" in that all the new Windows 7 machines are locked down behind cages. And "loaded" in that all the cages are full. (See photos.)

I visited a Best Buy Friday night in Southern California where the cages were loaded exclusively with new models preloaded with Windows 7. And I learned a few odd tidbits from a stoked salesperson who had definitely been drinking the Windows-7-is-totally-awesome Kool-Aid. Let me add that the information was conveyed to me at one store in Southern California and may not necessarily apply to all stores nationwide.

The chief executives of Intel and Advanced Micro Devices indicated this week that competition will heat up in the market for sleek, inexpensive laptops running Windows 7.

Both CEOs addressed this new market during conference calls after their companies reported earnings this week. Ultrathin laptops are inexpensive, light laptops--typically between $500 and $800--that are sold in a market segment just above less expensive Netbooks.

Intel CEO Paul Otellini on Tuesday said his company is gearing up to supply more power-efficient chips that contain two processing cores for better performance. "The bulk of the units that have shipped to date were single-core versions of the products," Otellini said. "You'll see a number of laptops show up in retail with the dual-core versions for the holiday season...more ergonomically designed, thinner, lighter," Otellini said.

HP's Pavilion dm3 starts at $549 with an AMD processor and $649 with an Intel processor.

(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)

And AMD's CEO Dirk Meyer chimed in on Thursday. "You'll hear more...next month about the product lineup that we'll be rolling out over the next two years, which will include increasing focus on those small form factor notebooks," Meyer said during AMD's conference call. In the more immediate future, Meyer said AMD will have a "broader assortment of (ultrathin) platforms walking into the Christmas cycle."

To date, this new category of laptops has had a minuscule market-share impact because there was little perceived difference between a Netbook and an ultrathin, according to Bob O'Donnell, IDC research vice president. "A lot of people said this is not actually that much faster, so you're going to see a very rapid transition to all dual-core," he said.

Windows 7 should accelerate sales too. "I think we will see better sales next year," O'Donnell said, as HP, Dell, and others bring out ultrathins with Windows 7.

The category received a boost recently with the rollout of HP's Pavilion dm3, which starts at $549 with an AMD processor and $649 with an Intel processor. The dm3 is expected to be available starting October 22 with the launch of the Microsoft Windows 7 operating system.

Other high-profile ultrathins include the $548 Acer Aspire Timeline (at Wal-Mart) and the $549 Dell Inspiron 13.

Because ultrathins are more expensive than Netbooks, they are more profitable for Intel. "Part of Intel's strategy is to pull people up from a Netbook," said O'Donnell.

AMD, on other hand, is focusing solely on the space "between Netbooks and mainstream notebooks," Meyer said, adding that AMD, in effect, created the ultrathin category with the introduction of the 12-inch HP Pavilion dv2 back in January. "We created that category really in partnership with the HP," Meyer said.

Advanced Micro Devices posted a third-quarter loss of $128 million, lower than Wall Street projections, while also reporting revenue that beat expectations.

The loss, at 18 cents a share, compares with a loss of $134 million, or 22 cents a share, for the same period last year. Analysts had expected a loss of 42 cents a share.

Revenue was $1.4 billion, an 18 percent increase over the second quarter of this year, while falling 22 percent compared to the third quarter of 2008. Forecasts had called for only $1.3 billion in revenue.

"There was strength in notebooks and China," said Dirk Meyer, AMD president and CEO, speaking during the company's earnings conference call on Thursday afternoon. He added that there is "an increased focus on small form factor" laptops at AMD and that upcoming inexpensive, thin laptops based on AMD processors should be priced lower than Intel-based offerings. And Meyer said AMD will broaden its processor offerings in this area going into the holiday season.

Meyer also spoke to AMD's future 32-nanometer silicon. Products codenamed "Fusion" that combine the graphics function with the main processor will be based on 32-nanometer technology and ship in the second half of 2010, Meyer said.

AMD is currently moving most of its production to 45-nanometer-based processors. Intel, on the other hand, will begin to move to 32-nanometer by the end of this year. Generally, the small the geometry, the faster and more power-efficient the chip is.

Addressing graphics processing units (GPUs), Meyer said that its recently-introduced 5800 series products have been well received but that the average selling prices of GPUs were down compared to the prior quarter and are still below central processing units or CPUs, which are higher.

"Growth in microprocessor and graphics unit shipments drove an 18 percent sequential revenue increase, while improved factory utilization rates, higher microprocessor average selling price, and an increase in 45 (nanometer) product shipments resulted in a gross margin improvement from the prior quarter," Meyer said in a statement.

AMD expects its product company (non-manufacturing-related) revenue to be up modestly for the fourth quarter of 2009.

AMD was the world's second-largest seller of microprocessors in the second quarter of 2009 with an 11.9 percent share of global revenue behind market-leader Intel, according to market researcher iSuppli.

Updated at 3:30 p.m. PDT: adding comments from earnings conference call.

Intel and Advanced Micro Devices filed motions on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court in Delaware, seeking sanctions against each other. Both motions are related to the retention of information in the antitrust case filed by AMD in 2005.

Intel's motion asserts that AMD failed to adequately retain documents in the case it filed against Intel in 2005. "AMD misrepresented its efforts and tried to hide its failures from the court and Intel," according to an Intel statement Wednesday.

The chipmaker alleges that AMD's claims about document retention were exaggerated. "Ever since Intel disclosed its problems in 2007, AMD claimed to have an 'exemplary' scheme to retain documents in this case. It is now clear that AMD did not, and that some AMD executives and employees failed to retain thousands of documents and e-mails," according to Intel spokesman Chuck Mulloy.

In the legal filing, Intel summarized its argument under the heading: "Summary of Argument: AMD Should Be Ordered To Do What Intel Long Ago Did Voluntarily." Intel stated: "At least by January of 2005, AMD reasonably anticipated its lawsuit against Intel and did everything a future plaintiff would to do to prepare for that case...But (it) did not start retaining relevant documents, the one thing the law obligated it to do."

Intel said its effort to "remediate or correct" mistakes it made in the discovery process cost the company tens of millions of dollars. It said it believes that it has complied with the plan and successfully corrected the problem. "As a result, Intel delivered nearly 200 million pages of documents to AMD."

AMD motion cites Intel's "auto-delete shredder"
In addition to dismissing the Intel motion as having "no merit," AMD filed a separate motion on Wednesday about Intel's "failure to preserve evidence."

AMD challenged Intel's claim that its remediation efforts (mentioned above) were successful. "Intel could have easily avoided this evidence preservation fiasco, had it and its counsel exercised a modicum of diligence in designing and implementing an effective document preservation program," AMD said.

This "fiasco," AMD said, led to "Intel's much-heralded, high-vaunted, but ultimately unsuccessful, attempt at remediation."

An excerpt from the filing continues: "At the heart of Intel's preservation problems was its failure to disarm an aggressive auto-delete system, despite uncontroverted authority required it do so...It's auto-delete shredder continued to run without any safety net."

AMD also alleged that "Intel has severely and irreparably harmed AMD's ability to present its case. At a company where paper trails are strongly discouraged, Intel imposed a 'move it or lose it' document preservation regime, where any document not manually saved was permanently expunged."

In the conclusion, AMD states that it "has submitted a proposed jury instruction for the court that attempts to remedy prejudice caused by Intel's spoliation of evidence." The instruction provides that the jury be told that Intel "destroyed hundreds of thousands of relevant documents."

Updated at 3:10 p.m. PDT, adding statements from Intel and AMD motions.

During Intel's earnings conference call on Tuesday, CEO Paul Otellini talked about the growth of notebook PCs versus Netbooks, and Windows 7 adoption in business, among other topics.

Otellini was quick to trumpet the fact that its mainstream notebook business beat Netbook growth. "We saw the sequential unit growth rate of notebook processors and chipsets actually exceed the growth rate of Atom processors and chipsets," he said.

Later in the call, Otellini said: "While Atom and Netbooks are important growth drivers for us, our traditional notebook business remains one of the primary drivers of revenue growth and we expect that to continue in the future."

Otellini, again in the call, expanded on this theme, adding that while Netbooks should see significant growth in 2010 over 2009, the notebook market is flourishing. "We're still bullish (on Netbooks) but what we've seen this quarter though is that the notebook market is alive and well and Netbooks are market-additive for Intel and the industry," he said. "Market-additive" is code for an ancillary product, not a mainstream product.

Intel CEO expects more attractive ultra-thin laptops in the coming months

(Credit: Intel )

He also addressed the new category of ultrathin laptops, which are inexpensive laptops--between $500 and $900--that slot in above Netbooks. "The bulk of the units that have shipped to date were single-core versions of the products. Late last quarter, we introduced the dual-core version of those products. You'll see a number of laptops show up in retail with the dual-core versions for the holiday season...more ergonomically designed, thinner, lighter."

Responding to analyst questions, Otellini also addressed Windows 7 adoption in business. "We see a lot of interest at corporations around Win 7 and the new Nehalem-based (PC models)," he said, referring to Intel's new Nehalem-based Core "i" series of processors. "They're made for each other in terms of the performance and power management and security characteristics."

He continued: "I would expect that the (corporate Windows 7) evaluation process will happen over the rest of this year and we'll start seeing corporate purchases on a refresh basis begin in 2010."

Here's a rundown of other comments:

• Consumer segment strong: "The strength in our business remains primarily consumer driven with broad-based demand across all geographies."--Otellini.
  
• Growth phase: Refuting a question about Intel becoming "smaller" next year: "We're finished with the cutting phase of our efficiency efforts and now in the growth phase of that efficiency efforts."--Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith.
  
• Inventory hubs: At large PC customers, component inventories levels are at roughly half of the peak level late last year and approximately flat throughout 2009. Intel has a better handle on inventories now using a mechanism called inventory hubs. "We hold the inventory for our large OEM customers, who then pull inventory only if needed...This give us increased visibility into real-time production levels."--Otellini
  
• Nehalem server processors: (dual-processor). "It's not so much an upgrade cycle that's driving the volume right now, it's economics of the data center. People are looking at swapping eight to nine older-generation servers for a single Nehalem server."--Otellini.
  

Updated at 3:10 p.m. PDT: adding comments from CEO Paul Otellini and CFO Stacy Smith.

Intel's third-quarter revenue jumped $1.4 billion over the second quarter, though year-to-year revenue and profit comparisons were down.

The world's largest chipmaker is struggling to lead the PC industry out of a brutal downturn that saw demand collapse earlier in the year.

Revenue came in at $9.4 billion, beating Wall Street expectations, which hovered at just more than $9 billion. Revenue, however, was down from the $10.2 billion reported in the year-earlier period.

On a year over year basis, revenue for the third quarter was down 8 percent, Intel said in a statement, adding that this was an improvement over the 15 percent and 26 percent year over year declines in the second and first quarters respectively.

Intel shares were up more than 5 percent after hours, trading as high as $21.45 form a regular closing price of $20.49.

"Overall (corporate) enterprise remains weak," said CEO Paul Otellini in the company's earnings conference call.

Profits were $1.9 billion, or 33 cents per share, down from the third quarter of last year, when Intel posted a profit of $2.0 billion, or 35 cents a share. But the 33 cents beat analyst forecasts, which were 28 cents per share.

The chipmaker's gross margin for the quarter, a crucial earnings indicator, was 57.6 percent, higher than the company was projecting.

Looking ahead, Intel expects revenue to hit $10.1 billion, "plus or minus $400 million," in the fourth quarter, and gross margin to improve to 62 percent, plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Intel also said the average selling price for microprocessors was slightly down sequentially.

Inventories were also down $315 million sequentially. Intel chief financial officer Stacy Smith said inventories were a little lower than Intel would like and that Intel intends to increase inventories in the fourth quarter.

Quick: Name an Intel rival whose name begins with an "A" and is abbreviated by three letters.

AMD? How about ARM. Even with attention focused on the immediate impact of Intel's earnings coming Tuesday afternoon, pesky questions linger about a likely future in which U.K.-based ARM and its satellite of chip and device makers pose a growing competitive threat. Maybe more so than Intel's traditional rival, Advanced Micro Devices.

Two recent statements from analysts argue that the camp of companies that make chips based on designs from ARM will dictate future competition in mobile computing. These companies include Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Samsung, and, in the future, Apple.

New Tripoli, Penn.-based The Information Network said late last month that ARM processors, not Intel's Atom chip, will gain the largest chunk of the Netbook market in 2012--about a 55 percent market share. Netbooks are small, ultralight laptops typically priced under $400.

The market research firm argues that small ARM-based laptops, dubbed "smartbooks," will thrive under subsidized services from telephone carriers "modeled after Hewlett-Packard (cheap printer, expensive ink) and the mobile service providers (cheap cellphone, expensive monthly wireless charge)."

And on Monday EE Times cited analyst Didier Scemama, with ABN AMRO Bank NV, who said there is a "shift towards computing based on ARM-Linux and away from Intel-Microsoft over the next technology cycle," which he said would begin in the second half of 2010, because ARM processors would match Intel chips in performance and beat them on power consumption and possibly cost.

The analyst also postulated that eventually Microsoft would offer a "high-level Windows operating system" running on ARM chips and that ARM could capture 30 percent of the notebook PC processor market by 2014. He speculated, too, that ARM might be taken over by the chip companies that are its licensees.

All of this competition from ARM might be good for consumers but not necessarily for future Intel revenue streams. A report last week from DisplaySearch said that the growing market share of Netbooks has pulled down revenue in the portable PC market due to a low average selling price. Revenues for Netbooks rose to $3 billion in the second quarter of the year, jumping 264 percent over the second quarter of 2008, while traditional notebooks saw second-quarter sales fall to $23.2 billion, a 14 percent decline from the second quarter of 2008, according to DisplaySearch.

These are all just forecasts, of course, and pricier mainstream Intel-based laptops running Microsoft or Apple operating systems today account for the vast majority of the market. Moreover, other analysts argue that consumers will not necessarily flee en masse to ARM-based laptops as it will be difficult to displace a longstanding consumer preference for Intel-based machines running Windows.

SanDisk said Monday that it is shipping memory chips that will allow consumers to store more data on tiny Secure Digital flash cards.

SanDisk X4 chip

(Credit: SanDisk)

The Milpitas, Calif., company's X4 technology packs four bits of data into each memory cell. To date, flash memory chipmakers typically stored one bit or two bits per cell. Each individual die--or chip--holds 64 gigabits of data, or 8 gigabytes. This is the highest capacity per die in the industry, according to SanDisk.

The technology is not yet shipping in cutting-edge retail products, however: it is currently being used in 8GB and 16GB SDHC (Secure Digital High Capacity) cards as well as 8GB and 16GB Memory Stick PRO Duo cards, the company said.

Future related technology from SanDisk--possibly not based on current X4--is expected to yield SD flash cards that hold 64GB of data and larger capacities. Currently, mainstream SanDisk SD cards top out at 32GB.

Flash memory cards sold at retailers are typically not as reliable as solid-state drives--which also use flash chips--sold with laptops. And the higher the density per chip and the more bits per cell, the bigger the challenge for maintaining data reliability. SanDisk says it has met this challenge.

"Our challenge with X4 technology was to not only deliver the lower costs inherent to 4-bits-per-cell but to do so while meeting the reliability and performance requirements of industry standard cards," Sanjay Mehrotra, SanDisk's president and chief operating officer, said in a statement.

But X4 will, for the time being, be hampered by poorer performance and endurance than X3 (3-bits-per-cell) technology, said Gregory Wong, founder and principal analyst at Forward Insights, which does research on flash memory technology.

The memory technology itself--the 4 bits per cell 64-gigabit memory--is codeveloped and co-owned by SanDisk and Toshiba. The X4 controller technology is solely owned by SanDisk.

Drop the word "Apple" into any discussion with any company and the effect is nothing short of remarkable.

This innocuous logo can evoke fear

Over the last year, I have talked to middle-level and high-ranking executives at enough companies to know exactly what to expect when the topic of Apple is broached: fear.

A recent interview with a fairly big company provides an example as good as any. (But I could cite a much bigger company too, it's doesn't seem to matter.)

The way this interview proceeded was typical. Most of it was devoted to questions about the company's product plans (unrelated to Apple)--and the interviewee divulged plenty of information. A smaller slice of the interview was about customers or companies related to the interviewee (again, unrelated to Apple). Here, queries were answered with differing levels of transparency. Though less was revealed, nothing was a conversation stopper.

Then, toward the end, the conversation turned to Apple--which is not unusual as Apple's tentacles are everywhere, particularly in the case of hardware. My question began something like: "So, I understand Apple is..." The response was remarkably consistent with past interviews. I quote from the mid-level manager: "I don't want to lose my job." I've heard variations on this job security (I-have-absolutely-nothing-to-say) theme related to Apple during the last 12 months or so.

The angst is always palpable. When the interviewees clam up, then quip something like "I like getting a paycheck every month," with a wry smile, they aren't joking. And these people don't even work for Apple.

I haven't written about the Apple gag-order syndrome until now because it hadn't struck me as that surprising, i.e., the stock phrase "I can't comment on another company's product plans" is used often--not to mention the legal weight of nondisclosure agreements.

But this changed a few months ago when I realized how the Apple question consistently evokes fear (or call it distinct unease) in many interviewees.

A sensational claim? Maybe it sounds that way. But I'm calling it as I see it.

Why Apple? It's not a stretch to say that Apple is probably one of the most secretive companies in Silicon Valley. But it's also one of the most influential and, consequently, most powerful. How do I know this? This middle-level manager at this fairly big, independent, and successful company felt compelled to comment on his job security twice. And the second time he said it, the smile had clearly left his face.