The Apple MacBook Air has remained almost unchanged for a year and a half--a testament to the staying power of its design. So, how will Apple respond to the wave of inexpensive, ultra-thin lookalikes hitting the market over the next six months?
The Air is still a stunning design but its novelty and high price will come under assault as lookalikes flood the market
(Credit: Apple)The Air was a sensation when it debuted in January of 2008. Not that it sold by the boatloads, but the stunning form factor set off an industrial-design frenzy. Ergo, the Dell Adamo and the raft of "ultra-thin" laptops in the hopper as a result of Intel's push to get its "ULV" (ultra-low-voltage) chips in as many glamorous but affordable designs as possible.
The just-announced ultra-thin Acer Aspire Timeline is the writing on the wall. No, it's not the equivalent of a MacBook Air or Dell Adamo but it's close enough to give prospective buyers even more reason to balk at the $1,800-plus price tags attached to those two gorgeous designs.
And other designs are already out there like the 0.78 inch-thick MSI X340 X-Slim, which is, more or less, a photocopy of the Air. And even Lenovo is tempting fate with the 3.5-pound 13.3-inch IdeaPad U350, which will start at $649 and make the $1,900 ThinkPad X301--and the Air--look very expensive.
So, what does an Acer Aspire Timeline get you for $899? Let's take a quick look:
- Intel Core 2 Duo processor SU9400 (1.40GHz, 10 watts)
- 13.3-inch LED-backlit TFT LCD
- Mobile Intel GS45 Express chipset
- 4GB of DDR3 memory
- 6-cell lithium ion battery
- 500GB SATA hard drive
- 3.5 pounds
- Windows Vista Home Premium 64-bit
Many of those specifications are a stone's throw away from the Air (and Adamo)--or match it.
So, what will Apple's MBA encore be? Thinner? Lighter? Faster? 3G capable? Dare I say, cheaper? Or a new industrial design that will send all the ultra-thin wannabes back to the drawing board? I'm waiting.
Intel marketing chief Sean Maloney
(Credit: Intel)Unleashing innovation is key no matter what laptop category you're talking about--whether Netbooks or low-cost notebooks, said Intel's sales chief, ahead of this week's Computex trade show in Taipei.
I spoke briefly with Intel's marketing chief Sean Maloney--who is at Computex this week--on Monday night and asked him about how the wave of low-cost, thin notebooks based on his company's "ULV" (ultra-low-voltage) chips may affect Netbook sales.
New, aesthetically appealing, inexpensive notebooks, such as the $699 Acer Aspire Timeline, could make Netbooks less attractive, which pin a lot of their popularity on bargain-basement pricing.
Maloney said Intel is not going to fret over sacrificing one category of laptops because it needs to protect another.
"It's a loser mentality to not develop one segment because you're worried about the other," he said. "I think we have several years ahead of us where we can innovate the heck out of any of these categories without getting defensive about the other one. You just need to unleash innovation in all of the segments and see what happens."
And what about the new 3G-capable Netbooks--which Qualcomm had dubbed "smartbooks"--appearing at Computex from Asus and upstarts like Mobinnnova which are tied to the ARM processor and sold through telecommunications providers? "The more the merrier. The more innovation there will be. It's good for the industry to have competition," Maloney said.
New ULV notebook wave: Acer Aspire Timeline has a number of the same specifications and attributes of the upscale Dell Adamo but is priced more than $1,000 below the Adamo
(Credit: Acer)Maloney continued. "We've shipped very large numbers of Netbooks through service providers in the last year and a half. Most of the service providers around the world have been shipping Netbooks for some time," he said. Hewlett-Packard, for instance, is now selling an Intel Atom-based Netbook at Verizon stores in the U.S. with 3G built in.
And, how important is the rollout of the new ULV chips? "This is a big announcement and it's kind of on par with the original announcements we made with the original Centrino," Maloney said.
"Fashion is going to play an ever-bigger role (in notebooks). It's like the cell phone industry four or five years ago. An incredible number of designs are coming out in the thin form factor."
"Very light, very thin, and incredibly long battery life," he said of the ULV laptops. Sounds a lot like the evolution of the Netbook--except it isn't called a Netbook. But, as Maloney said, may the best product category win.
Intel is launching its line of processors for thin, inexpensive laptops at the Computex tech conference in Taipei. Intel marketing chief Sean Maloney talked about this in a phone interview.
"It's clear that people like devices to be thin and light," said Maloney, who was speaking from the Computex conference in Taipei where he will be giving a keynote on Tuesday.
"We've really taken that to heart and come out with a complete top-to-bottom range of microprocessors that enable radically longer battery life and much smaller designs," said Maloney, referring to Intel's new lineup of consumer ultra-low-voltage (CULV) processors.
Maloney continued. "There are a lot of computers being announced here (Computex) that look like conventional notebooks in terms of how wide the screens are, but they're super-thin, the performance is very good, and they get up to nine hours battery life without a big, fat battery at the back," he said.
MSI X340 X-Slim laptop is one of the first CULV laptops
(Credit: MSI)"It's a big change for industry. It means the technology weaves its way into your life more because you're going to have all-day notebooks," Maloney said.
The new processors will encompass the Core 2, Pentium, and Celeron processor architectures, according to Maloney.
Prices for these new laptops will start at $399 and range up to $2,000 in some cases, Maloney said.
And will laptops based on these chips impact the sales of Netbooks? "I don't think so," Maloney said, but added: "It's a loser mentality to not develop one segment because you're worried about the other."
Maloney continued. "The demographics (for Netbooks) that's completely untouched is kids between the ages of 7 and 12. So, the Netbook market is still at a very early stage," he said.
In addition, Intel unveiled the Mobile Intel GS40 Express Chipset for the new ULV-based laptops. This "value" chipset enables ULV-based laptops to support HD (high-definition) playback, Windows Vista Premium support and native support for integrated HDMI (High-Definition Multimedia Interface).
Wireles options will include embedded WiMAX or Intel "My Wi-Fi" technology. My Wi-Fi transforms a laptop into a WiFi personal area network, connecting directly with up to eight Wi-Fi-certified devices, according to Intel.
Though a crush of new thin laptops are expected, the MSI X340 is one of the first. The X340 has a 13.4-inch screen, weighs 2.86 pounds, and measures .78 inches thick.
An Eee PC Netbook based on a Qualcomm processor that runs Google's Android operating system looks promising as an alternative to the millions of Netbooks out there tethered to Intel Atom processors and Microsoft Windows.
An Asus Qualcomm-based smart-book is a promising alternative to Windows-Intel Netbooks
(Credit: Asus)Asus was showing a Netbook at the Computex conference in Taipei running the Android OS on top of Qualcomm's Snapdragon processor, according to this TweakTown video.
When Asus plans to ship a Netbook based on Qualcomm's Snapdragon processor isn't clear and Asus is not disclosing its plans (later this year?), but it becomes even less clear when you add Google's Android operating system to the mix. Michael Rayfield, an Nvidia executive, doesn't expect Android Netbooks to appear commercially until next year.
What is clear, however, is that these Netbooks are different from the Windows-Intel variety. Qualcomm is calling them "smartbooks" rather than Netbooks to draw attention to the fact that they will operate more like smartphones: standard 3G connectivity, always-on, and all-day battery life.
And what makes this Asus demonstration at Computex interesting is that all Asus Netbooks to date have run on Intel processors. Obviously, Asus thinks the Snapdragon technology is different enough to warrant a separate design.
Other specification for the Netbook include a 10-inch screen, a built-in Webcam, and a universal 3G radio that supports UMTS and CDMA networks on all frequencies used globally, according to an IDG News report.
AMD launched its first six-core processor, which will compete against Intel's "Dunnington" chip.
The Cray XT5m supercomputer will use the Istanbul chip
(Credit: Cray)The "Istanbul" Opteron processor is for high-end server computers that use two, four, and eight processors or "sockets." Intel has been shipping a six-core processor for this market since September of last year and will bring out a processor based on its new Nehalem architecture for this segment later this year.
Among other new features, AMD is touting an Istanbul technology called HT Assist. The previous way of retrieving data from the processor's memory was "like checking every room in your house for your car keys," said Pat Patla, AMD's general manager of the server workstation group, in a phone interview last week. With HT Assist, "You know where your car keys are," he said. "It's much more efficient and takes out a lot of traffic," Patla added.
Patla also said that AMD is ahead of schedule with this chip, in stark contrast with the company's ill-fated quad-core Barcelona processor, which saw repeated delays. "Within almost a 15-month period of time we were able to design the product, tape out the product (final stage before production), verify the product and launch," Patla said about Istanbul.
Systems based on six-core AMD Opteron processors are expected to be available beginning this month from server suppliers including Cray, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM and Sun Microsystems, AMD said Monday.
Istanbul boasts up to 34 percent more performance-per-watt over the previous-generation quad-core processors.
Qualcomm said Sunday that it is adding new Snapdragon silicon to its series of chips for Netbooks and other small devices while it showcases devices at the Computex conference in Taipei.
Snapdragon-powered devices will come in various designs
(Credit: Qualcomm)The San Diego-based company announced that it is expanding the Snapdragon chip platform with a next-generation chipset that uses the 45-nanometer process technology to provide faster processing, significant battery life improvements, and other enhancements.
The chips are targeted at smartphones and so-called smartbooks. The latter is a category of small devices that, in some cases, will be similar in appearance to Netbooks but will emphasize 3G connectivity and be sold through telecommunications companies. Netbooks are small laptops typically powered by Intel's Atom processor.
The new Snapdragon QSD8650A chipset, scheduled for sampling before the end of 2009, runs a 1.3 GHz processor, achieving 30 percent higher performance as well as enhanced multimedia and 2D/3D graphics, Qualcomm said. Current Snapdragon silicon runs at 1GHz. The chip uses a manufacturing process based on the same 45-nanometer geometries that Intel currently uses for its processors.
"Utilizing 45nm technology also allows power consumption improvements such as up to 30 percent lower dynamic power (over) previous-generation Snapdragon products and an unmatched standby power of less than 10 millwatts," Qualcomm said.
Qualcomm also said that the company's device manufacturing partners will be showcasing devices powered by Snapdragon chipsets. The company will hold a press conference to highlight these new devices and discuss its smartbook strategy on Monday at Computex.
Demonstrations of Snapdragon-based devices will include Asus, Compal, Foxconn, High Tech Computer (HTC), Inventec, Toshiba, and Wistron.
"We feel the Snapdragon platform from Qualcomm holds great promise, and look forward to collaborating on groundbreaking new consumer products that redefine what is possible on a mobile device," Peter Chou, chief executive officer of HTC, said in a statement.
"Thanks to the unprecedented performance of Qualcomm's Snapdragon chipsets, we look forward to delivering a new type of user experience to the market," Alan Tsai, the senior vice president of Business Group 2 of Quanta Computer, said in a statement.
Nvidia has its own grand scheme for Netbooks, the tiny laptops that have gained wide acceptance running on software and hardware from Microsoft and Intel, respectively.
Michael Rayfield, general manager of Nvidia's mobile business unit
(Credit: Nvidia)At the giant Computex conference starting Tuesday in Taiwan, Nvidia will be showing hardware running on its Tegra processor and Windows CE, the version of Windows used most prominently to date in business-use handheld computers. And, down the road, Nvidia has high hopes for devices based on Google's Android.
Tegra is a system-on-a-chip that integrates a processor based on a design from U.K.-based ARM and Nvidia's GeForce graphics silicon, among other functions. The goal is to bring robust PC-like graphics to small devices such as Netbooks and handheld devices--the latter also referred to as mobile Internet devices.
In a break from Computex tradition, Nvidia will have phone companies in tow. "We're bringing the carriers in. I've got 100 people showing up from carriers at Computex," Michael Rayfield, general manager of Nvidia's mobile business unit, said in a phone interview Friday.
Tegra will be shown at the trade show in devices that manufacturers "are about ready to release into production," Rayfield said.
"The Internet is all about (Adobe) flash and HD (high-definition) now so we've built a platform that can do that," he said. "There are two operating systems we support. Microsoft Windows CE and, as it becomes more interesting for large screens, (Google) Android," Rayfield said.
"We do Android for smartphones and we're working to do hardware acceleration on Android as it goes to larger displays," Rayfield said. In February at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Nvidia announced that it is working with Google and the Open Handset Alliance to get its Tegra processor into phones based on Google's Android operating system.
Android will likely appear commercially in larger devices, such as Netbooks, by the middle of next year, Rayfield said. "Android, as it stands now, does not do hardware acceleration," he said, referring to graphics-based acceleration of video and other multimedia applications. "We've already got 720p acceleration on Android internally," he said. 720p is a lower-resolution standard for high-definition video.
Rayfield continued. "Android has got a roar ahead of it but I think it's three of four quarters from a large-screen device. And the market wants something interesting before that."
... Read moreCARLSBAD, Calif.--Qualcomm and Freescale Semiconductor are ready to begin pushing a category of devices that they say are cheaper, lighter, and more connected than Intel-based Netbooks.
And just to make sure that the difference is crystal clear, both companies are calling the category "smartbooks."
"We are relabling with the term 'smartbook.' We are joining others in using this term," said Glen Burchers, director of global consumer segment marketing at Freescale, in a phone interview Thursday. "The manufacturers that are using ARM-based devices are cooperating in using this terminology," according to Burchers.
"The smartbook is the smartphone experience on a larger form factor," according to Luis Pineda, vice president of marketing at Qualcomm's CDMA technologies division, speaking during a teleconference on Thursday.
So, what makes a smartbook different from the Netbooks being sold by companies like Dell and Hewlett-Packard? Netbooks use an Intel Atom processor and, typically, Microsoft's Windows XP operating system. Smartbooks will use processors based on an ARM design and the Linux operating system. And 3G connectivity will be standard--like a typical smartphone.
ARM chips offer better power efficiency than Atom processors and ARM-based devices come with virtually no cost overhead for the operating system. "The primary distinction between them (smartbooks) and the existing crop of Netbooks will be longer battery life--eight-hour battery life--slimmer form factor, and lower price point," said Burchers.
One Snapdragon-based prototype uses a tablet motif. Both Qualcomm and Freescale say that the term smartbook will encompass multiple designs. 3G connectivity--the standard for smartphones--is key.
(Credit: Qualcomm)Other distinguishing features are "instant-on" and "persistent connectivity," according to Burchers. "The idea is that the device is intelligent enough to go fetch your emails and your messages automatically. And this is what you'd expect from a smartphone," he said, trying to emphasize that the device would operate in some ways more like a smartphone than a Netbook.
Qualcomm, for its part, has a Web site dedicated to smartbook prototypes and concept devices and lists standard features such as 3G mobile broadband, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, GPS, and HD video. Qualcomm hosted a dinner at the The Wall Street Journal's "D7: All Things Digital" conference, where company executives discussed the smartbook strategy.
Qualcomm's smartbooks will be powered by its Snapdragon processor, while Freescale's chips use an uncatchy "i.MX515" moniker. Both companies license the basic chip design from U.K.-based ARM. In Qualcomm's case, it has an ARM architecture license which allows the San Diego, Calif.-based company to do major modifications to the basic chip design.
Another Qualcomm prototype is a classic clamshell design. Some Freescale-based devices will also be clamshell designs.
(Credit: Qualcomm)The first smartbook devices are appearing from so-called original design manufacturers or ODMs, which typically don't market under their brand name but supply devices to large PC makers which then slap on their brand. Wistron and Pegatron, both ODMs, will be showing Freescale-based 10-inch clamshell devices at the Computex conference, Burchers said. Computex starts next week in Taipei.
"These are the first near production-ready devices that we expect to find a home at OEMs (brand-name device makers) before Christmas time this year. We should definitely be able to hit the $199 retail price," according to Burchers.
Nvidia--while not tying itself to the smartbook nomenclature--is also expected to show devices based on its ARM-based Tegra processor at Computex. Nvidia has been touting a $99 "HD mobile Internet device" that telecommunications companies would offer with subscription plans--the route that devices based on Qualcomm and Freescale chips are also expected to take.
Netbooks, by contrast, are typically priced between $300 and $500.
One the challenges facing all ARM-based device makers is the lack of a Windows operating system--a problem that XP- and future Windows 7-based Netbooks don't have. Freescale and others are looking to Google's Android OS, due commercially in devices next year, to counter the marquee draw that Windows has.
"The potential that Google has--this has got everybody's attention," Burchers said. "One thing that's driving that is the Google brand. The second thing is that finally there's one-stop shopping for an operating system that is an alternative to Windows. Linux (generically) is an alternative to Windows but it is fragmented. There are too many derivatives," according to Burchers.
Until the potential of Android in smartbooks is realized, the lack of a Windows operating system will always pose a problem for some consumers, especially in laptop-like clamshell designs.
"The biggest inhibiting factor is that it doesn't have any legacy (established PC) operating system compatibility because Microsoft is unlikely to provide native support for it near-term," said Ashok Kumar, an analyst at investment bank Collins Stewart. "For the mainstream market, unless they get Microsoft compatibility it's going to be a long road," Kumar added.
When your iPhone's screen automatically reorients itself, it's using a nascent silicon technology expected to become a $1.7 billion market by 2013.
Apple uses an accelerometer to reorient the iPhone's screen
(Credit: Apple)It's called an accelerometer--and the iPhone brought these devices into the mainstream.
"When you turn your iPhone to the side and the screen automatically adjusts from portrait to landscape view, there's an accelerometer at work. And when you swing your (Nintendo) Wii controller and bowl a virtual strike, there's an accelerometer at work there too," iSuppli noted in a report released Thursday. The market for these devices is expected to grow to $1.7 billion in 2013, up from $947.7 million in 2007, according to the market research firm.
Accelerometers are based on another burgeoning silicon field, Microelectromechanical Systems, or MEMS--also referred to as micromachines. MEMS are made up of components typically no larger than 100 micrometers in size and usually integrate a microprocessor and other components, such as the microsensor found in the iPhone's accelerometer.
Accelerometers in recent years have emerged as a popular input device for some of the world's hottest electronic products, causing shipments to boom, according to iSuppli. "Due to this rapid sales growth, accelerometers by 2013 will displace the current leading MEMS products--inkjet heads and Digital Light Processing (DLP) chips--to become the dominant type of MEMS device sold worldwide in 2013," said Jérémie Bouchaud, iSuppli principal analyst for MEMS, in a statement.
"Consumers' desire for motion-sensing in smart phones and video game systems will boost demand for accelerometers," Bouchaud added.
... Read moreIntel said Netbook cannibalization of notebook PC sales is about 20 percent in Europe, according to a news report Wednesday. But this trend may ebb later this year when the "affordable" ultra-thin laptop category takes off, leading to a cannibalization reversal of sorts.
Christian Morales, Intel's European sales chief, said Netbook sales were about 16 percent of all notebook sales globally, and a little higher in Western Europe, according to Reuters. "In Britain and Italy they may account for as much as a quarter of all notebook sales," he told Reuters.
Netbooks are small, inexpensive laptops--typically below $500--designed for Web browsing, email, and less-demanding media applications.
Intel Netbook share was about 16 percent in March of this year.
(Credit: Intel)Intel's marketing chief, Sean Maloney, presenting at the company's investor meeting on May 12, said that the share of Atom processor-based Netbooks out of the total mobile PC market was about 16 percent in March. (See "Netbooks Mix of Mobile PCs" chart.) And he showed that the market share for Netbooks--month to month--hovers around 15 percent.
"The market has not all lept over to Netbooks," Maloney said at the meeting. "We're very comfortable with having established the (Netbook) category. We believe now that Netbooks are an under-distributed product line." Cannibalization, when it occurs, tends to affect low-end laptops based on Celeron processors, he said. "Atom is eating into Celeron. And we're quite fine with this," Maloney said.
Intel's ramp of inexpensive ultra-thin "CULV" laptops may eat into Netbook sales
(Credit: Intel)Then later in his presentation, alluding to Intel Consumer Ultra-Low-Voltage (CULV) chips due to appear in inexpensive laptops starting in June, he said that this is "an opportunity for upsell. We don't need to give this stuff away. The industry doesn't need to give this stuff away. We can reach new price points and we can also get paid for it." CULV processors will be based, to a large extent, on Intel's Core 2 architecture, which offers better performance than the Atom chips used in Netbooks.
Maloney's comments imply that CULV-based laptops will offer stiff competition for Netbooks, especially high-end Netbooks priced above $400. Many CULV notebooks should fall into the $599 to $799 price range--the upper range of Netbooks--according to Ashok Kumar, an analyst at investment bank Collins Stewart. And some major PC makers expect CULV to become one third of total latop sales by next year, Kumar said.
Though no one can forecast how popular these new inexpensive thin laptops (think: MSI X-Slim series or a hypothetical $800-$900 Apple MacBook Air) will be, Intel is obviously expecting the category to take off. (See "Ultra-Thin Affordable Volume Ramp" chart.)
Maloney said growth markets for Netbooks are children--he said this market is still under-served--as well as Netbook bundles with telecommunications service providers. Verizon, for example, is now offering Hewlett-Packard Netbooks with 3G functionality built in.
