New data on the top 10 mobile phones puts Apple on top due to the sheer number of iPhone owners. But both Research In Motion and LG actually control more market share because they sell multiple, popular models.
Nielsen's data on the top 10 phones in use in the U.S. from January through October shows Apple with 4 percent market share, RIM with 6.3 percent, and LG with 6.4 percent. But the trio lead a very fragmented market. In fact, the top 10 phones account for just over 20 percent of the total devices in use.
With an estimated 271 million U.S. mobile subscribers at the end of 2008, accounting for about 88 percent of the U.S. population, even 1 percent market share is significant.
RIM BlackBerry devices and LG handsets--voluminous in offering compared with the singular iPhone also have the benefit of longer time on the market and of promotion by the carriers that don't have the iPhone. LG is the No. 3 handset maker behind Nokia and Samsung. RIM and Apple have nowhere the number of models offered by the top three handset makers, yet they enjoy a stronger market share.
The Nielsen data shows both the opportunity and the challenge of creating the next big thing in mobile devices. Just a few years ago, Motorola's Razr was the belle of the ball, and RIM was firmly fixed as an enterprise device. However, the convergence of voice, e-mail, and browsing, as well as new 3G networks, brought the smartphone to the forefront and helped push both RIM and Apple to the top.
All hope is not lost for currently less popular handset makers, as the market can very quickly change dramatically.
Indeed, there is a big challenge under way from Android-based phones such as the Droid that could thrust laggards such as Motorola back into the spotlight, provided that Google doesn't stomp all over the developer community that has been building up around the new mobile operating system.
| Top 10 Mobile Phones in Use (U.S.) - January -October 2009 | ||
| RANK | Device | Embedded Base of All Subscribers |
| 1 | Apple 3G iPhone | 4.0% |
| 2 | RIM BlackBerry 8300 Series (Curve, 8310, 8320, 8330, 8350i) | 3.7% |
| 3 | Motorola Razr V3 series (V3, V3c, V3m, V3i, V3i DG, V3) | 2.3% |
| 4 | LG VX9100 (enV2) | 2.1% |
| 5 | LG Voyager | 1.7% |
| 6 | Samsung SPH-M540 (Rant) | 1.5% |
| 7 | RIM BlackBerry 9530 series (Storm) | 1.4% |
| 8 | LG VX9700 (Dare) | 1.3% |
| 9 | LG Vu series (CU915, CU920) | 1.3% |
| 10 | RIM BlackBerry 8100 series (Pearl, 8110, 8120, 8129) | 1.2% |
| Source: Nielsen | ||
And mobile phones are not just for those on the run. Nielsen's Convergence Audit (PDF), an annual survey on voice, video, and data products, "shows a rise in households who have 'cut the cord' by trading their traditional landlines for wireless cellular services and an increase in mobile media device usage among a diverse set of households."
In the second quarter, the report said, 21 percent of households were using wireless cellular service only--compared with 18 percent a year earlier. "This increase comes from...households who have dropped their landlines as well as from young adults that started new households with just a wireless phone service," the report said.
Odds are that these percentages will continue to climb as young mobile users reach adulthood and as adults look to their mobile devices to do more than just make calls.
It's no secret that Windows Mobile has hit a rough patch as the iPhone and Android-based smartphones have take center stage. Recent statistics from AdMob shows that Windows Mobile market share of Web surfing was way down during the past 12 months--more than 70 percent year over year.
Any number of people postulate that Windows Mobile will be dead, some say as soon as 2011, unless Microsoft figures out a way to not only make the operating system better but to convince users that they should care.
On the New York Times Bits blog, Steve Lohr wrote earlier Thursday on analyst Mark Anderson's comments suggesting that Microsoft abandon their consumer efforts entirely--that the company has lost the battle for consumers:
Except for gaming, it is 'game over' for Microsoft in the consumer market. It's time to declare Microsoft a loser in phones. Just get out of Dodge.
I'm not a huge fan of Windows Mobile, but Microsoft certainly can't give up on smartphones and really has no alternative but to make a big move in the mobile operating system space. And Windows Mobile is not nearly as bad as many people think--if you don't believe me, check out these results from mobile blog jkOntheRun.
I recently toyed with Windows Mobile phones at both Verizon and AT&T stores and I could absolutely see the appeal of the common desktop functional paradigm if I were a Windows user. But consumers are fickle and don't want to add an OS decision into their buying process. They just want the phone and its applications to work and be easy to use.
There remains a huge opportunity for Microsoft to take its dominant position and make Windows Mobile truly great, even if it means walking away from the status quo. And while that's not typically the Microsoft way, the company has shown with Bing that it can make those kinds of decisions (as well as less-positive choices.)
There are two very simple moves Microsoft could make that would not only shake up the whole market, but also build a path for the future:
... Read more
I received a note from Andy Gilbertson, one of the developers behind Parallel Kingdom, a location-based mobile massively multiplayer (or MMO) game that uses your GPS location to place you in a virtual world atop the real world. The game seems like an obvious winner for the iPhone, but the team has been struggling to get it past Apple's app review policies.
Gilbertson's travails with the iPhone application acceptance process illustrates why Apple's gating of applications is a troubling reality for developers--and for consumers. And while it's understandable to have a gating mechanism in place, if Apple wants to remain at the top of the mobile application space, it so heavily dominates, the company needs to commit more resources to not just the application review process, but in communicating with developers. As of my last e-mail exchange with Gilbertson, Apple had not responded for more than six days. My call to App Store PR has gone unreturned for about 18 hours as of this post.
Apple's acceptance policies can be shockingly difficult to navigate, so much so that some have marveled at the fact that an ecosystem could build up at all.The fact that iPhone applications are written in Objective C, a previously uncommon programming language, is in and of itself a show-stopper for many developers, but that obviously hasn't stopped development.
Earlier today Ars Technica wrote about several prominent developer including Facebook's Joe Hewitt, Second Gear's Justin Williams, and longtime Mac software developer Rogue Amoeba, all of whom recently "decided that enough is enough" and that they would abandon iPhone development efforts. And while each cites different reasons, the underlying thread is that they've had enough of waiting for Apple to distribute their apps, an instantaneous effort on the Internet.
While restrictive or complex policies are unlikely to stop the iPhone juggernaut, they can be very painful reminders of what would happen if we regress 15 years to the unfortunate walled gardens of AOL. Tim O'Reilly reminded us of the risk of the closed Web recently, commenting that "anyone can put up a Web site, or launch a new Windows or Mac OS X or Linux application, without anyone's permission. But put an app onto the iPhone? That requires Apple's blessing."
It's unlikely that a few developers falling off of the iPhone train will have a dramatic effect on the growth of the market, but this kind of unhappiness can easily lead to a backlash. The big question is if another mobile platform can take the place of the iPhone.
Android has arguably the best chance, but it currently struggles due to immaturity of its own application ecosystem. Nonetheless, there is a huge revenue opportunity for an open-Web approach to mobile applications. It remains to be seen if Android can live up to the hype and not fall into the same trappings as the App Store. For all of Apple's sins in how they run that business, it's undeniable that it remains hugely successful.
As consumers increasingly purchase sophisticated smartphones such as the iPhone, BlackBerry, and Droid, they are developing expectations for how these phones allow contacts, calendars, e-mail, and social networks to remain in sync across all their devices.
One of the big challenges is that users don't always maintain the same source of inputting data--they switch from browser to desktop application to smartphone as their data access and entry point, introducing many variables into the data chain. And data integrity will only get more complicated as more applications become browser-based and keep no local data storage.
Most enterprise users have a local store in addition to the cloud storage, something that I still find puzzling from the T-mobile Sidekick outage, where consumer data that should have been in multiple locations (or at least present on the device) was thought to be lost.
The most common sync services are not provided directly by the mobile operator. Generally this is a good thing, as the more you can dis-intermediate the carrier, the more control you have over your data. But because the sync services are provided by others--notably Microsoft, Google, and Apple--you end up locked-in to their data structures as well as whatever privacy and data management issues that might arise in relation to advertising or other usage of your information.
Today, you can fairly easily sync your mobile device with most common online e-mail and PIM services although the BlackBerry, Droid, and the iPhone differ in their approaches--or at least in the visibility of how they work. For example, you can sync with Gmail and other services on the iPhone, but it rather perversely requires the Microsoft ActiveSync protocol.
By controlling the address book, Google and Apple effectively lock-in users to their sync service, leaving the carriers and devices to be easily replaced (minus the cancellation charges.) The user would barely notice the difference, aside from the sticker on his phone that says AT&T or Verizon.
Mobile operators do not want to cede control of the address book to Google or Apple, but they are late to the game and do not yet have sync solutions of their own. As a result, they are scrambling to add this functionality, but building a sync solution that works with all different devices and email services is no easy task, thanks to the widespread problem of device fragmentation in the industry.
One option is to deploy a white label solution, like the open mobile cloud sync offered by Funambol. Funambol CEO Fabrizio Capobianco told me the company has been approached by many of the top mobile operators, with several of them looking to setup sync services for their customers. They all recognize the issue, and according to Capobianco can turn to Funambol as a way to quickly bring a high-quality solution to market.
With all the different players in mobile sync, users will begin to question who owns their data. Enterprise users, in particular, should have privacy concerns about trusting their data to someone else. In the case of Android users, there is a growing anti-Google sentiment, and if Google already owns your email, calendar, and search queries, do you really want them to own your phone contacts as well?
Amazon Payments today launched a new service that brings the company's payment processing tools to mobile devices. Amazon Mobile Payments Service (MPS) includes a set of APIs (application programming interfaces) that allow mobile developers and merchants to provide payment options to their customers within mobile Web sites and applications--including the convenience of Amazon's 1-Click checkout system.
There are already a number of mobile payment providers, but Amazon is the big dog of the e-commerce world with an enormous amount of customer accounts already in use. This could be an excellent option for companies that offer mass-market mobile applications and are looking for ways to easily accept payments.
The service will automatically detect the request origin, meaning a Web or mobile browser, or a mobile application so that developers don't need to re-work their applications.
... Read more
It's no secret that Japan has better mobile phones than the rest of the world. The country has also had access to better phone-based Internet services since the launch of NTT DoCoMo's i-mode service all the way back in 1998.
Recent data from japan.internet.com (translated by whatjapanthinks.com) suggests that Japan's mobile phones offer users enough functionality that 49 percent of the respondents to a recent survey say a "mobile phone is enough" when asked what kind of mobile device they would most like to carry.
- Mobile phone is enough 49.2 percent
- Smartphone 22 percent
- Netbook 16.3 percent
- Notebook computer 8.9 percent
- MID/UMPC 0.3 percent
- Other 0.3 percent
- Don't want to carry anything 3 percent
In addition to the wealth of services and games, with the character-based typing you really don't need an iPhone or other smartphone unless you need to access corporate e-mail. While this can also be delivered directly to mobile phones, in my experience most companies don't allow access unless it's through a VPN.
... Read moreA recent study released by ABI Research says that limited processing power, battery life, and data storage will limit mobile application growth in the mass market, even among smartphones like Apple's iPhone.
But, applications that connect to cloud resources are much more likely to be successful than those that run only on the mobile device.
ABI Research predicts mobile cloud computing will deliver annual revenues topping $20 billion over the next five years. ABI Research senior analyst Mark Beccue says device fragmentation and memory currently limit the level of sophistication developers can deliver through mobile apps. By contrast, running mobile applications in the cloud will free up mobile processors while also enabling developers to create just one version of their application.
"Cloud computing will bring unprecedented sophistication to mobile applications," noted Beccue. "To mention just a few examples, business users will benefit from collaboration and data sharing apps. Personal users will gain from remote access apps allowing them to monitor home security systems, PCs or DVRs, and from social networking mashups that let them share photos and video or incorporate their phone address books and calendars."
Funambol, an open-source mobile cloud sync company, seems to agree with this view of the future. When I spoke to Fabrizio Capobiano, CEO at Funambol, he said: "Mobile cloud sync is emerging as a major new category of wireless services. Apple, Google, Nokia, Microsoft, Palm, and others recently introduced mobile cloud sync services and all mobile operators and ISPs are racing to keep up. Current solutions are fairly basic, but open source is enabling more flexibility and innovation among these folks because it is so easy to adapt."
You can hear more about open source and mobile cloud sync from Mike Taczak, a team lead for Webmail apps at Rackspace, as he describes how the company uses Funambol in the video below.
Follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom.
Apparently you can make a lot of money with an iPhone application. According to TechCrunch, Social Gaming Network's (SGN) Fleet Air Superiority Training F.A.S.T. dogfight game "pulled in over $1 million in download fees alone in the first six weeks it was available."
F.A.S.T was originally priced at $9.99 but SGN has varied the pricing as part of their launch plan. It currently sells for $1.99 and is said to be bringing in as much as $60,000 per day.
As I wrote earlier in the week about Flash games, quality matters. SGN's initial games were OK if not great, but F.A.S.T and Vampire vs. Werewolves are significantly more complex and entertaining.
It's not clear that F.A.S.T can maintain this trajectory or how much of a lifetime any iPhone application has. But, there is something to be said for the strategy of building an engine that allows for more games to be built and for licensing the technology to others.
Still, with more than $100 million invested in iPhone start-ups, there are going to have to be a lot more companies developing high-quality games and a lot more iPhone users (which means multiple carriers) to prove the market anywhere near $1 billion and prove to be a good return on venture capital.
This also brings up some interesting questions about how microtransactions and virtual goods play into premium games (i.e. those that you pay more than $1.99 for) versus free to play social games. There's not enough in the competitive market yet to see a trend, but I suspect we'll see a further movement toward cheap barrier to entry and a heavier reliance on alternative means of revenue generation.
Follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom.
From a software and cloud perspective, the iPhone represents an ideal world of development functionality mixed with an ability to use mobile services. However, the App Store approval process and AT&T's wonky network will still prevent us from reaching nirvana.
I tried to chronicle the issues I've had, but the truth is, the service (and therefore the device itself) ranges from excellent to sporadic to unusable, so I'll just list out the broad issues for those considering a move to the 3GS.
Battery life--the battery life is abysmal. I've gone on every forum, tweaked every setting, and done several tests to see what works best. The hacks that people suggest (turn off push, 3G, and Bluetooth) defeat the purpose of the device. Users shouldn't have to handicap themselves because of a lack of attention from the manufacturer.
If Apple really wants enterprise and business users, this is the most important issue that must be resolved.
Phone --I haven't been a fan of AT&T mobile service in the past (Verizon Wireless is my carrier of choice) and it continues to range from terrible to mediocre for me. Bizarrely, the worst call quality occurs when talking to another AT&T user. I did a conference call the other day with two other iPhone users and none of use could decipher the others' words.
I gave up on the 3G network both for the battery drain and the calls that dropped after 10 minutes (I took notes for 2 days) and every call dropped. A recent survey says that 34 percent of those polled won't buy the iPhone because of AT&T's network.
... Read moreMobile services continue to mature, and the things you can do on a phone keep getting better even when we are forced to suffer with inconsistent and occasionally terrible quality from mobile carriers.
The vast majority of new services we see in the U.S. have some basis in the DoCoMo i-Mode service from NTT Japan. If you're looking for mobile opportunities, take a gander at Japan and Korea to see how mobile devices shape lives and society.
I spoke with Gerhard Fasol, head of Eurotechnology Japan about a recent report discussing Nintendo and Japan's gaming industry are effected by new devices like the iPhone and services like the App Store, as well as how Japanese electronics manufacturers are trying to make their console/device the center of user's lives.
Since DoCoMo's i-Mode started mobile phone games in 1999, "online and mobile phone games combined have outgrown the video game software sector and are certain to grow much more in coming years. The iPhone, for example, is not slowing mobile phone based gaming down...those who only count video game cassettes and consoles, certainly don't see the rapid mobile and online growth--and complain about shrinking markets."
But really what vendors are feeling is their shrinking control--game vendors and carriers have pushed their own walled gardens, which works fine as long as they can provide what people want--and sooner or later then can't. Think AOL versus the Internet if you need more explanation.
According to Fasol, games of all kinds used to be played in game parlors, and some of Japan's game giants were originally (and still are) game parlor machine makers (a round of Dance-Dance-Revolution anyone?)
These game vendors then moved on to consoles, cassettes and handhelds, taking the momentum out of game parlors, and establishing a pattern of growth by generations (today we are in the 7th generation).
... Read more
