The Digital Home

This column has been updated with a correction. See details below.

Everywhere I turn, someone is talking about the death of plasma technology in HDTVs. They contend that since Pioneer dropped out of the plasma production market, it's only a matter of time before the few companies left in the plasma business admit defeat and stick to liquid crystal displays (LCDs).

Long live the plasma HDTV.

(Credit: Panasonic)

South Korea's LG disagrees. Speaking in an interview with HDguru.com published this week, LG Electronics USA's director of product development, Tim Alessi, told the publication that assertions that the plasma TV market is almost dead are, well, dead wrong.

"Plasma will continue to be a viable technology for flat-panel displays in the near- to midterm future," Alessi told HD Guru. "Plasma continues to be the technology of choice for home theater enthusiasts, sports fans, and consumers desiring a larger screen size. In 2009, we estimate that plasma will account for more than 40 percent of the 50-inch and larger-screen-size sales. That unit volume will probably continue for at least the next three to four years."

I share Alessi's optimism. Although I'm fully aware that LCDs are chipping away at plasma sales, I wouldn't jump to LCDs, if given the choice.

Even though news sites are touting the eventual release of new HDTV technologies and calling them the saviors we've been waiting for, the simple fact is they're not anywhere close. And to make matters worse, many of these are nothing more than proofs of concept that have no marketability. In other words, don't start trashing your plasmas and LCDs just yet because they'll be around for quite a while.

On Monday, I had the opportunity to interview Bob Perry, Panasonic's senior vice president for its display division, for the next episode of my CNET Digital Home podcast. During the interview, I asked him what the future of the HDTV market looks like and what we should expect.

Much to my chagrin and certainly some of those who will listen to the interview, he said that the chances of a new HDTV technology hitting store shelves anytime soon are slim. According to Perry, we're still at least a decade away from the next real HDTV technology that could actually supplant LCDs and to a lesser extent, plasmas.

Suffice it to say, it's a sad day for those of us who want to see the next big thing.

Sorry, but we don't really need you, plasma.

(Credit: CNET Networks)

In what could be the final blow to rear-projection HDTVs, Sony has announced that it will abandon its production of those sets and focus all of its efforts on "what people really want"--LCDs.

Of course, the news doesn't quite end there for LCD proponents. Rumors are swirling that Matsushita--Panasonic's parent company--is looking to get out of the plasma business and focus its efforts on developing LCDs. Not only would this move prove to be devastating to another LCD competitor, it could create an industry landscape that's dominated by LCDs and totally bereft of any other technology.

And in the end, is this consolidation of technologies really what we want? Is it really what we need? The answer may not be that clear cut--after all, do we really want LCDs for the next 10 years? Regardless, we need one technology--the best technology--to lead us into the next decade.

According to a report from iSuppli market research, LCD prices may be rising in the coming weeks due to limited supply and increasing demand. And while this may be big news in and of itself, some are suspect of the effect higher prices will have on the marketplace. As far as I can tell, the effect will be minimal at best.

As many are well aware, plasma HDTVs tend to offer a superior picture for sets measuring over 42 inches. For most HDTVs under 42 inches, LCDs take the day. And while there are some nice 50-inch LCDs and beautiful 30-inch plasmas, it is this dynamic that will dictate the future of this industry.

Regardless of pricing implications and the impending price hike on LCDs, there will not be a measurable effect on sales of either LCDs or plasmas. Like most other industries, the general rule is the smaller the product, the lower the price. And while this is not universal in the HDTV business, it tends to be true nonetheless. That said, HDTVs are also priced based on the name attached to the device. Whether or not a Panasonic is nicer than a Westinghouse, you will typically find that the Westinghouse will be priced much cheaper than the Panasonic. Sad as it is, quality does not dictate price.

And that is the issue facing the industry in the coming months. While LCD prices rise, the impetus for retailers to drop plasma pricing is no longer there. For the first time, a 37-inch LCD may be the same price as a 50-inch plasma of equal quality and name-recognition. And while pricing is certainly a consideration when people look for their next big purchase, it's not always the determining factor.

On any given day you can go to your nearest electronics store and watch people with a stated budget talk themselves out of a certain set they saw online because it doesn't look nearly as nice in the store. Simply put, people go to the store looking for two main components: products within their price range and the best picture on the show floor. But unfortunately, looks can be deceiving. While a 50-inch LCD may look better than a comparably priced plasma in the store, people are often times confused when the picture at home doesn't look quite the same. Looks can be deceiving, but in the store, looks are all that matter.

It's this drive for the best picture quality that has dictated buying behavior in the past and will continue to dictate it in the future. Regardless of pricing, the average consumer couldn't care less if an HDTV is a plasma or LCD as long as it looks nice in the store. Most people don't run to Best Buy and say, "I'm spending $1,800 and that's it!" Instead, the average Joe or Jane is excited to buy the new product and will specify a range: "$1,500 to $2,000." With that framework in mind, Joe or Jane runs to the HDTVs and sets out for the properly priced device. Once they find a handful of options, they compare and compare and compare. Once they decide on the best picture, the decision is made. Period. There is no mention of higher LCD prices as compared with last week and most people don't even know the difference between LCD or plasma because it simply doesn't matter. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and "LCD" or "plasma" are nothing more than names.

So, hand me those LCD price hikes and tell me about the possible benefits of buying a plasma because they are now a fine pricing alternative and I will tell you that price hikes and "plasma" really doesn't matter much when buying an HDTV. Sorry, it just doesn't.

Mitsubishi Laser TV

(Credit: Mitsubishi)

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Mitsubishi's vice president for marketing Frank DeMartin, revealed that his company will be showing off its very own laser TV at CES 2008.

In the interview, Mr. DeMartin explained that "[Laser TVs] will spawn a new category for the premium end of the market."

And while his words are true, does Mitsubishi (or any other company for that matter) really want to be known as the "premium end" in a market that is being dominated by companies who are trying to drop prices as quickly as possible? The current state of the HDTV market, much like the cell phone market, dictates the best possible quality at the cheapest price. Next time you hit up a Costco or Sam's Club, take a look at the $3000 Sony and the $1700 Vizio. Can you tell a difference? And if so, how many times does the Vizio look better than the Sony? If my tastes are the same as yours, you would probably say 99 percent of the time.

With that in mind, would you really want to pay twice or three times that for a laser TV just because it is the next big thing and provides a somewhat better picture than your current plasma or LCD? Not me.

While some believe lasers will supplant UHP lamps as the medium of choice for HDTVs, I don't. Although current HDTVs can only display up to half of the visible color spectrum and laser TVs can show almost 90 percent of that spectrum, inky blacks and red reds are not as important to me as benefits for the cost.

In case you were wondering, Laser TVs works with the help of three lasers in their own distinct wavelengths: red, green and blue. Although red lasers are easily available right now, as far as I know, no green or blue lasers can be purchased for inclusion into the TVs. Because of this, manufacturers are required to use a technique called frequency doubling to create artificial blue and green lasers. Once these lasers are properly configured, they shoot beams at a vertical cavity containing two mirrors. The laser light is then converted into visible light and this is carried to a Digital Micromirror device where the mirrors either shoot the light onto your screen or into a dump.

Sound complicated? Well it's expensive too. Although this technique eliminates many of the components you would find in projection TVs (namely the color wheel and filters), laser costs are extremely high at this point, and to mass produce these HDTVs, companies may end up charging more than $10,000 for first-generation devices.

Even worse, laser TV technology uses laser power that is dangerous to human vision without the use of filters that will only add to the already exorbitant price tag.

Interestingly, proponents of laser TVs have consistently touted the advanced image technology that helps create a so-called "perfect" picture, but they never seem to mention the price of producing thousands of these TVs for the home. Like everyone else, I would like an HDTV that provides the best picture, but at what point are the returns on what I am getting, too little to justify the price?

As an avid HD user who believes SD bands should have been destroyed years ago, I understand and enjoy the benefits of a crystal-clear image. And while I can never go back to a standard-def image after enjoying sports games in HD, I don't think the jump from my LCD to a laser TV will be dramatic enough to warrant that reaction. If Mitsubishi and the rest of the laser TV proponents really had something special up their sleeves, don't you think they would be touting the new screens as HD killers or the next-gen of HD? Instead, they have their vice president of marketing spewing his company's ideas of a "premium" alternative to the current options.

Laser TV was doomed before it was even announced. The Internet is abuzz with the promise of this new technology and what it may provide for us in the future. I'm not so ready to jump onto the laser TV bandwagon. The technology will be too costly and the jump in quality is too little to justify the price of these HDTVs. The average consumer will not buy a more expensive TV that looks nominally better than the affordable set right next to it. So before you start asking your local tech guy if you should wait for laser TVs to hit CES before you pick up that new HDTV, give the guy a break and head down to your local warehouse store. Those Vizios are awfully nice.