Blu-ray players are becoming a hot item in the living room, but they have yet to attract much attention in the office, according to a new report from iSuppli.
The market research firm found that 3.6 percent of PCs shipped in 2009 will feature Blu-ray players. By 2013, the company expects 16.3 percent of PCs to sport a high-def drive. During that period, DVDs will still reign supreme.
"BDs won't be replacing DVDs as the primary optical drive in PC systems through at least the year 2013," Michael Yang, senior analyst for storage and mobile memory at iSuppli said in a statement. "They eventually will find success, but during the next five years, that success will be limited in the PC segment."
iSuppli believes that Blu-ray's lack of adoption in the PC market is centered on two main factors: a relatively small number of available movies and the cost of adding a Blu-ray drive to PCs. iSuppli said its findings suggest consumers will be more likely to add Blu-ray drives to their PCs once the cost of those drives decreases.
Although the results weren't ideal for the Blu-ray Disc Association, iSuppli said that they're not uncommon. According to the company, new media formats in PCs have enjoyed success only when the cost has decreased to a suitable level. That success also depends on whether or not consumers feel the technology's value proposition is high enough.
iSuppli cited the 3.5-inch floppy's 15-year lifespan as proof that consumers will use media as long as they perceive value. Currently, those same consumers believe there is more value derived from DVD drives.
... Read moreA report has surfaced in Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun that Toshiba, one of the top backers of the HD DVD format, will be releasing a Blu-ray player before the end of 2009.
Toshiba lost with this player; why should it release a Blu-ray player?
(Credit: Toshiba)It's a fascinating concept. the company that spent years trying to tell the world that Blu-ray is inferior is now looking to tell those same people that it really is worthwhile. Wow.
I understand that Blu-ray is becoming more popular. I know that it's slowly, but surely, gaining market share in the disc market. But it's not the only way to bring entertainment to the masses.
The vexed consumer
Tech companies have nothing unless the consumer base trusts them. Whether it's faulty products that break that trust or poor business practices, once it's broken, it could lead to financial ruin. That's precisely why I don't see why Toshiba would want to release a Blu-ray player.
During the war between HD DVD and Blu-ray, Toshiba did all it could to highlight issues with the competing format. It explained why its format was better. And it did everything it could to make Blu-ray look less desirable.
Even after the war was over, Toshiba didn't stop with the Blu-ray bashing. In an interview with TechRadar last year, Toshiba's deputy general manager of HD DVD, Olivier Van Wynendaele, said his company "wouldn't change anything that it did" with its HD DVD strategy.
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I'm not convinced that Blu-ray will ever be as successful as DVD.
I believe that the players are still too expensive, the media costs too much, and there isn't enough of a jump in quality between DVD and Blu-ray to force people to jump to the new format. Plus, streaming video is slowly but surely becoming a force in the entertainment space.
There's another issue holding Blu-ray back: it's not portable. Unlike DVD, you can't bring Blu-ray with you. And you certainly can't run into Blockbuster, pick up a Blu-ray movie, and play it in your car to keep the kids quiet on a road trip. That's been a contributing factor to DVD's staying power.
Until now.
Though it went largely unnoticed, Panasonic announced last week that it was bringing an in-car Blu-ray player to store shelves. The two-part system also features a "7-inch display, GPS, a CD/DVD player, Bluetooth, a 40GB hard drive, and iPod/iPhone compatibility." So far, no price has been announced.
It's an important step forward for the format.
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Sony's Blu-ray Disc is arguably overpriced and overhyped, and it probably won't be nearly as successful as DVD, but I came across an interesting tidbit of information over the weekend that may make some change their minds about the success of the high-definition video format.
According to Nielsen VideoScan figures for the week ending February 22, Blu-ray captured 10 percent market share, and sales were up 29.31 percent over the same week last year. DVD captured the remaining 90 percent share, but its revenues were down almost 12 percent, year over year.
Granted, that's just one week's figures, and it doesn't mean much in the broader sense, but if you look at previous weeks, those figures are much the same. In fact, Blu-ray is slowly gaining ground on DVD, and its 10 percent share is actually an impressive figure, given its history.
I usually spend my video-allocated cash on other formats, but there is one place where Blu-ray will always win out for me: rentals. I won't stream films, and I won't rent DVDs. Blu-ray is the only format that I will rent from my local video store or get from Netflix. It's as simple as that.
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Blu-ray U.S. disc sales have tripled in the past year, according to The Digital Entertainment Group, but there's a slight problem--Blu-ray sales are still lower than where film studios would like them to be, and there's no indication that Blu-ray sales will top DVD sales anytime soon.
The studios blame Blu-ray's performance on the economy, and claim that if we were enjoying better economic times, the format's sales would be higher.
But there's one person, Bill Mechanic, a film producer and former Fox Filmed Entertainment chief, who believes there's more to this story.
"I think it's one part recession, but there are bigger factors," Mechanic told The Wrap in an interview. "That's a misreading of consumer behavior as well as a misreading of the economic environment. It's devalued the libraries."
"If you can buy 'Titanic' for $4.99," Mechanic continued, "[consumers will say] 'Well, wait a minute...'" when they consider buying another film on Blu-ray at a substantially higher price.
"There's no rhyme or reason of what I see in the market place in terms of pricing," Mechanic said.
He has a point. Even on Amazon.com, where Blu-ray movies are usually priced at their cheapest level, there's a major difference between DVD pricing and Blu-ray pricing. In fact, an older film like "Independence Day" is currently being offered on DVD for $14.99 and on Blu-ray for $25.99. A DVD of a new film, "The Dark Knight," is retailing for $14.99 on the site, while its Blu-ray counterpart is going for $23.99.
It sure looks like DVD pricing is holding Blu-ray back.
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Lite-On might be releasing a $150 Blu-ray player at some point in 2009, recent rumors suggest. There's not much more information available now, but I don't think it seems out of the question to expect Lite-On or another firm like Memorex to release a player for that price sometime during the year.
But is $150 the sweet spot for Blu-ray players? For those who want Blu-ray anyway they can have it, that might be perfect. But for others, $150 is still a steep price tag for a device that would conceivably offer less quality than other, more expensive Blu-ray players on the market.
And as I consider a $150 Blu-ray player, I find myself in the latter grouping. It's not that a $150 Blu-ray player doesn't appeal to me. But for that price, I'm not getting enough that would make me want to spend the money.
For me, the perfect price tag for a Blu-ray player at this juncture, given the economy and the format's shortcomings, is $100.
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Global industry-tracking company, GfK, reported Monday that video game sales have overtaken home movie sales for the first time. According to the report, gaming's worldwide revenue reached $32 billion in 2008. In the U.S. alone, the video game industry nabbed $21 billion in revenue.
Combined worldwide DVD and Blu-ray sales fell 6 percent during 2008, chalking up $29 billion in revenue, reports Video Business.
GfK analysts believe 2009 will see the video game industry further its dominance over the DVD and Blu-ray market, raising revenue to $36 billion. The researchers expect DVD/Blu-ray sales to fall another 4 percent to $27 billion during the same period.
Now, it should be noted that revenue isn't always a good measure of comparison between video games and the film industry. After all, video games usually retail for $60 and the most expensive Blu-ray films retail for approximately $30. But the most telling statistic in GfK's study isn't necessarily the amount of cash each industry collected, but rather the rate at which the video game industry grew during 2008 (19 percent since 2007), compared to the rate at which the film industry's sales declined (6 percent). From that, we can gather that consumers aren't as willing to buy films as they once were and, at least in my case, video games have become the preferred form of entertainment.
... Read moreOnline research firm Futuresource released a study Monday that discussed the relative success Blu-ray is enjoying right now in Western Europe.
According to the report, Blu-ray disc sales are up significantly in Europe so far this holiday season, and based on its findings, it believes the strong sales will continue through 2009. In fact, it believes European Blu-ray sales will triple during 2009, seeing 2.5 million players enter homes next year. Similar results are being witnessed in the U.S.
But that's not all. A release last week claimed the latest Batman film, The Dark Knight, witnessed sales of 1.7 million Blu-ray units, representing the most popular Blu-ray title of all-time.
Quite impressive, eh? Well, what if I told you that worldwide combined DVD and Blu-ray sales of The Dark Knight totaled 13.5 million units? Suddenly, that 1.7 million Blu-ray unit mark doesn't look so hot next to the 11.8 million DVDs that were sold, huh?
Of course, we shouldn't expect Blu-ray to catch up anytime soon. According to Futuresource in a study it released earlier this year, Blu-ray isn't expected to outsell DVD until 2012. And even then, Blu-ray will control just a bit more than 50 percent of media sales with DVD coming in around 45 percent to 50 percent. In other words, DVDs will still be a major force four years from now.
Based on all that information, can we honestly sit here and say that Blu-ray has a chance at becoming the success DVD is?
I just don't see it.
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CNET's Crave on Friday reported on Nielsen's latest VideoScan figures, showing that Blu-ray Disc's market share in the video disc market has slumped in the past week.
According to Nielsen, Blu-ray's market share dropped to just 8 percent of the overall market, giving DVDs a whopping 92 percent ownership.
Granted, those figures show only one week's performance, and Blu-ray may have a huge week soon and capture more of the market, but let's be honest with ourselves: do we really think that will happen?
According to a study released in August by ABI Research, more than half the people it surveyed had no plans to buy a standalone Blu-ray player in the near future, and 23 percent are considering it, but not until 2009.
When your format is limping along with just 8 percent of the market, the last thing you want to hear is that only 23 percent of the population actually wants a Blu-ray player.
But wait! There's always the PlayStation 3, right? Surely, everyone who knows about Blu-ray is picking up a PlayStation 3 to watch their movies. After all, won't that product be the savior for which Sony has been waiting?
Please. According to NPD's latest numbers, Sony sold just 185,000 PlayStation 3 units, which represented a 17 percent drop, compared to July sales numbers. Worse, it barely beat out the PlayStation 2, DVD player and all.
The PlayStation 3 isn't going to be Blu-ray's savior, and neither is that sub-$200 price tag. At this point, I simply don't see how Blu-ray has a chance.
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