Green Tech

While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.

The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.

(Credit: Pike Research)

The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.

Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."

Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.

Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.

"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.

The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.

But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:

• By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
• Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
• The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
• Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
• The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.

The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research.

The Motion uses an electric motor to drive the front wheels, and an Ecoboost engine on the rear axle.

(Credit: Kepler Motors)

The phrase "hybrid supercar" gets plenty of use these days as a variety of automotive start-ups combine electric motors and gas engines to get outstanding 0 to 60 mph times, usually combined with claims of world-beating range on a single tank of gas. And we get excited every time we run across a new one. That's why a news release from Kepler Motors spiked our adrenaline when we saw it in the Monday morning in-box.

Kepler developed the Motion, a concept hybrid to debut at the 2009 Dubai International Motor Show. What's interesting about this car is that it uses Ford's new Ecoboost engine, a twin turbo direct injection 3.5-liter V-6 to drive the rear wheels, while an electric motor drives the fronts, giving the car all-wheel-drive. And we assume there is some control software to drive the wheels at the same speeds.

Even more interesting, and showing the potential of Ford's Ecoboost engine, is that Kepler tweaked it to output 550 horsepower. In the Lincoln MKS we tested recently, the same engine only makes 355 horsepower. The electric motor on the front wheels produces 250 horsepower, making for a combined 800 horsepower for the powertrain. But we wonder how much of that power actually gets put to the ground.

Kepler says the Motion will get to 60 mph in less than 2.5 seconds, but doesn't specify whether that number is based on actual tests or calculations. With this hybrid supercar announcement, there were no claims as to range.

To keep the weight down, the Motion uses a carbon fiber body, along with carbon ceramic brake rotors. Kepler says the two-seat cabin is designed to hold people of above-average size, suggesting the company expects luxury buyers rather than racers.

Don't expect to see one in your neighborhood, though--Kepler will only build 50, with production starting in 2011.

Toyota Motor will begin selling "affordable" plug-in hybrid cars in 2011, upping the ante on General Motors and Nissan Motor as they aim to take the lead in the field of rechargeable cars.

Toyota's first plug-in model, the Prius Plug-In Hybrid (PHV), will add an external charging function and more batteries to the popular Prius to enable longer-distance driving on electricity alone.

Because it can also run on gasoline, plug-in hybrids--such as GM's upcoming Volt due for sale next year--eliminate the "range anxiety" seen as one of the main shortcomings of battery-powered pure electric cars.

The Prius PHV can travel 14.5 miles using only the electric motor, making a short commute possible on zero emissions, Toyota said. On a full charge and full tank of gas, the car could theoretically travel 870 miles, it said.

Prius Plug-In Hybrid concept car

(Credit: Toyota)

Nissan's pure electric Leaf car due for sale in 2010 has a range of 100 miles on a single charge.

Toyota, the world's biggest automaker and by far the top seller of gasoline-electric hybrid cars, said it would aim to sell "several tens of thousands" of plug-in hybrid cars to the general public in an "affordable" price range.

Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota's R&D chief and father of the original Prius, declined to specify a price range but indicated it would likely be far cheaper than 3 million yen ($33,770).

"Nowadays in the United States, they sell after-market kits for about 1 million yen ($11,260)" to convert a hybrid car into a plug-in, he told a presentation on Monday. "Of course, we would have to do much better than that as a mass producer."

The third-generation Prius starts at $22,400 in the United States.

Uchiyamada said he expects the mass-produced plug-in cars--which may not take the shape of the Prius--to be sold globally.

GM's Chevrolet Volt, on track to become the first mass-market plug-in hybrid in the United States, could cost as much as $40,000 before a $7,500 consumer tax credit is applied, GM has said. The U.S. automaker expects to sell about 10,000 Volts in the first year of production and 60,000 in its second full year.

Toyota will begin leasing its Prius PHV globally this month, starting with 100 to the French city of Strasbourg. By mid-2010, it will have about 600 on lease, mostly to governments and businesses in Japan, the United States and Europe.

"The arrival of these new generation plug-in hybrid vehicles in our urban landscape will open a new chapter in our transport policy," Strasbourg Mayor Roland Ries said at a hand-over ceremony in Tokyo.

Strasbourg has 300 recharging stations and has been a leader in efforts for sustainable mobility.

Story Copyright (c) 2009 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

The CMT-380 serial hybrid sports car is built on a Factory Five Racing kit car platform.

(Credit: Capstone)

In an unlikely alliance, Capstone, manufacturer of electricity-generating microturbines, and Electronic Arts Chief Creative Director Richard Hilleman have built a hybrid sports car for the upcoming Los Angeles Auto Show. The CMT-380 uses an electric power train with a range-extending diesel-fueled microturbine. A lithium polymer battery pack gives the CMT-380 80 miles of pure electric range, and the microturbine generates power for an additional 500 miles.

The car itself is built on a kit car platform, the Factory Five Racing GTM supercar. Capstone cites performance figures of 3.9 seconds to 60mph and a 150mph top speed. Impressively, the microturbine burns its fuel so cleanly that no catalytic converter or other exhaust treatment is needed for the car to meet California's Air Resources Board emissions requirements.

Not the first name that comes to mind in the automotive industry, Capstone has been making microturbines for stationary facilities and hybrid public transport vehicles since 1988. The microturbine in the CMT-380 is the company's smallest, generating 30 kilowatts. Capstone claims many benefits of its microturbine technology over an internal combustion engine, such as compact size, low maintenance, and efficient operation.

But forget buying your own CMT-380. Capstone says it may build a limited number based on interest at the Los Angeles Auto Show, but the car really serves as a demonstration of microturbine technology. Capstone will look for interest in the technology from automakers.

A Humvee made by American General.

(Credit: AM General)

Lithium-ion battery manufacturer EnerDel has signed an 18-month, $1.29 million contract with the U.S. Army to design and test hybrid battery options for the Humvee.

Trying to power the iconic fuel-guzzling High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV aka Humvee) with a battery, may seem like trying to put out a fire with a garden hose. But a lithium-ion battery system can deliver a lot of power from a battery quickly, giving a truck like the Humvee the thrust it requires.

EnerDel, a subsidiary of Ener1, will collaborate with the U.S. Army's Tank Automotive Research, Development, and Engineering Center (TARDEC) on four possible power systems that could be implemented in the XM1124 version of the Humvee.

The company, which specializes in battery cell chemistry as well as the electronics and battery system designs, said it already has two viable options. EnerDel has developed a lithium-tatinate system in conjunction with Argonne National Laboratory that could accommodate the acceleration and hard braking required for such a powerful vehicle like the Humvee. It also has a lithium-manganese system that would give a vehicle extra-long range and allow electronics to be run off the battery for extended periods of time before needing to be recharged.

As part of the 18-month contract, EnerDel will also be involved in testing the systems under "extreme performance simulations." In addition to putting the test vehicles through the usual Humvee paces of wading through water and mountain climbing, there will also be an endurance test.

That will include seeing how a hybrid Humvee fares as a power plant for a field hospital or temporary military post. The requirement makes perfect sense given the ease with which a Humvee can be transported to hard-to-reach areas. One of its key features has always been that it could be dropped in to virtually any terrain by parachute.

A Humvee being parachuted out of a plane.

(Credit: AM General)

The hybrid Humvee will also be more stealthy. Anyone who's had a close call with a Prius knows how dangerously silent hybrids can be in total battery mode. The hybrid version of the Humvee will have a powered-down "silent watch" mode that will allow it to run with its diesel generator off, reducing not only its noise, but also its thermal signature to avoid detection.

As always with major military project announcements, the company involved was quick to point out the down-the-road commercial application of its technology.

"In keeping with a long tradition, we also expect that innovations perfected here will have important benefits for the commercial markets," EnerDel President Rick Stanley said in a a statement.

There has already been interest in Raser Technologies' H3E, a plug-in hybrid version of a Hummer-branded SUV called the H3. While not truly a Hummer (the civilian version of the Humvee), the "Hummer-light" descendant has garnered the interest of even the most discerning Hummer enthusiasts.

So if EnerDel's batteries might be good enough to power a Hummvee, why haven't commercial automakers been knocking? They have actually. The company has signed research partnerships of varying commitment levels with Think Global, Fisker Automotive, Volvo, and Nissan. Its parent company, Ener1, is also working with U.S. utilities to develop smart grid storage units.

BOSTON--Ford Motor expects to manufacture as many as 2 million all-electric and gas-electric vehicles in the next 10 years, betting that rising oil prices and consumer interest will sustain a long-term transition to new technologies.

The company has set a goal of making 10 percent to 25 percent of its fleet "electrified" by 2020, which represents somewhere between 800,000 and 2 million cars, said Nancy Gioia at a media event here on Wednesday. Ford announced on Wednesday that Gioia will hold a newly created position of director of global electrification, which covers hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric vehicles.

Plug-in electric vehicles promise to offer a much lower cost-per-mile than gasoline cars and deliver substantial environmental benefits. But in the near term, hybrids will likely represent the largest volume in the mix of technologies, said Gioia at the event.

"We've finally demonstrated the technology, the life, the durability, the safety (of hybrids)--all of that has reached a comfort zone to make it viable. Now it's going to be affordability that will drive mass market adoption," she said.

A demo of a Ford Focus, done with Magna, that runs on batteries alone. Ford plans to introduce the car in 2011.

(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)

Infiniti's first hybrid will be the 2012 M35.

(Credit: Infiniti)

Nissan/Infiniti has so far only dabbled in hybrids, choosing to buy technology from Toyota for the Nissan Altima Hybrid. The company is really attempting to leap past that technology by going straight to electric vehicles, with the Nissan Leaf. But the upcoming Mercedes-Benz S400 Hybrid must have lit a fire under someone at Infiniti, because the company just announced the Infiniti M35 Hybrid.

The M35 Hybrid will use a mild hybrid system.

(Credit: Infiniti)

With a V-6 engine mated to what sounds like a mild hybrid system, the car will be aimed more at performance than maximum fuel economy. Infiniti describes the hybrid system, which was built in-house, as combining twin clutches and an electric motor on the propeller shaft coming out of the engine. This arrangement allows the electric motor to provide extra boost to the rear wheels and, according to Infiniti, drive the car under only electric power under certain circumstances.

Honda says the same of its mild hybrid system, but we've never actually noticed pure electric drive power in any Honda hybrid. Infiniti is using the same laminated lithium ion batteries in the Infiniti Hybrid as will be used in the Nissan Leaf.

The Infiniti M35 Hybrid will come out in 2011 as a 2012 model.

This V70 model is a research vehicle for Volvo to develop a plug-in hybrid power train.

(Credit: Volvo)

Jumping in on a growing trend among automakers, Volvo announced that it will offer a plug-in hybrid car as early as 2012. Although a picture of a V70 plug-in hybrid concept was included with the announcement, Volvo hasn't confirmed which model it would use for this technology. In the past, the company has also shown a C30 concept with a plug-in hybrid power train.

But Volvo did specify the type of power train it would use for the car. The announcement describes a parallel hybrid, meaning drive power is provided by electric motors, an internal combustion engine, or both. Volvo would use a diesel engine with the capability to run on synthetic fuel in this application. The car would be designed to run under electric power for about 30 miles, making it suitable for city errands and commutes, after which the diesel engine would kick in. Volvo says the total range of the vehicle will be 745 miles.

European environmental regulations give Volvo ample incentive to develop the car. Under European emissions testing, the car would produce under 50 grams of CO2 per kilometer. At that level, some European countries will offer buyers a 5,000 euro discount on the price of the car, according to Volvo.

Volvo also seeks to allay fears that the electricity used to charge up the batteries in these cars will make an excessive impact on the grid. The company points out that a medium-size wind power station could provide the electricity required for 1,000 to 2,000 plug-in hybrids. Drivers would benefit from lower operating costs, as the amount of electricity used to drive the car over a mile costs significantly less than the diesel fuel that would run it over the same distance.

The Fisker Karma at the Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca in August.

(Credit: Fisker Automotive)

Fisker Automotive has been awarded $528.7 million in U.S. Department of Energy loans to develop a more affordable plug-in hybrid for U.S. production.

The hybrid car start-up company is indeed developing a $39,000 plug-in hybrid electric car, as CNET News predicted last week.

Fisker currently refers to the mystery car as "Project Nina."

The majority of the funds, which were awarded from the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program, will be put toward developing and building production facilities for the Nina car in the U.S.

Nina's development and production will employ an estimated 5,000 U.S. workers counting indirect jobs from suppliers as well as direct Fisker employment, the company said Tuesday.

Fisker recently introduced the Karma, a luxury hybrid sedan that sells for about $87,900. A small portion of the Department of Energy funds will go toward further developing production facilities for the Karma in the U.S.

The Nina plug-in electric hybrid price of $39,000, is the estimate after government rebates are factored in to the price. While that price point would not be considered "affordable" to the average U.S. car buyer, it is an affordable price for plug-in hybrids and electric cars, which are not yet produced in large volume. Tesla's Model S electric sedan, in comparison, costs an estimated $50,000 to $56,400 after rebates. Tesla was awarded $465 million in loans from the same Department of Energy fund in June to build production facilities for the Model S.

Using the federal loans, Fisker hopes to produce 100,000 "Nina" cars annually in the U.S. starting in 2012. And while the cars will carry made-in-the-U.S.A. bragging rights, Fisker hopes to sell many of the cars elsewhere too.

"A significant percentage will be exported, helping to balance the U.S. trade deficit," Fisker said.