While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.
The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.
(Credit:
Pike Research)
The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.
Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."
Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.
Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.
"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.
The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.
But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:
- By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
- Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
- The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
- Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
- The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.
The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research.
The Think City: rearing to go.
(Credit: Think Global)One year after nearing financial ruin, Think said Thursday that it has starting making its small all-electric sedan.
The Norway-based company plans to begin delivering the two-seat Think City to customers in Europe, where municipal governments and utilities plan to use them as fleet vehicles. Think has orders for 2,300 of the cars, supported by government incentives. The initial car deliveries are due before the end of the year.
The Think City can go as fast about 60 miles per hour and it has a range of about 100 miles, on lithium ion batteries supplied by EnerDel. The car is being marketed to city dwellers who would like an electric car for daily commuting and errands, but not long trips. It's one of a few electric cars aimed at mainstream consumers that will be coming out in the next two years.
Valmet Automotive, which manufactures for Porsche and Fisker Automotive, has a production line of Think City cars at a plant in Uusikaupunki, Finland.
About a year ago, Think had to shut down its operations because it ran out of cash. Over the past year, the company secured more money and reorganized its management structure.
The company, which has its roots at Ford, plans to open a manufacturing facility and to launch sales for the Think City in the U.S. sometime in 2010. It also hopes to make money by licensing its electric power train to other automakers.
SAN FRANCISCO--Technology giant Intel is seeing big opportunities in wind forecasting for power generation, and in information management for electric vehicles, John Skinner, Intel's director of marketing for its Eco-Technology division, said Tuesday.
Intel already sells microprocessors to wind turbine manufacturers and this would be an expansion of that business.
Adoption of wide-scale wind power would rely on accurate forecasting, such as when the wind would blow and how fast, he said.
"There's a lot of opportunities for sensor technology and high-performance computing," he said in an interview on the sidelines of an industry conference. "We are starting to explore it."
Intel has said it wants to grow its processor and software presence outside the traditional markets and has invested in a number of green technology companies through its venture capital arm, Intel Capital.
Wind and solar power have gained in popularity but mass adoption has been hindered by the fact that neither power works around the clock. Solar panels don't work at night and wind turbines only spin when the wind blows.
"We see numerical forecasting [in wind] as very interesting opportunity," he said, adding that "every extra bit of granularity and predictability" on wind power is very valuable.
Another sector that Intel is eyeing is electric vehicles.
Skinner said that transportation industry is "very ripe" for the application of microprocessors.
"Electric vehicles are going to contain a lot of electronics," he said, adding that Intel could see itself being involved certain aspects of the electric car such as energy management and range prediction.
"It would be an extension of our business in telematics," he said.
Story Copyright (c) 2009 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
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LOS ANGELES--Nissan Motor will keep the price of its upcoming battery-powered Leaf competitive with similar-size cars and expects to make money on the vehicle despite the cost of its launch, said Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn on Friday.
The five-passenger hatchback, which is being designed to have an all-electric range of 100 miles, would cost only 1 percent to 2 percent more than traditional combustion engine vehicles in its class, he said.
"On the pricing of the vehicle it is too early to say, but there will be no surprise," Ghosn said. "We know it will be the key to the mass market."
Nissan has not disclosed pricing on the Leaf, but has said it expects the car to be the first affordable, mass-market electric car when it goes on sale in the United States, Japan, and Europe by the end of 2010.
Nissan has bet heavily on electric cars and expects that by 2020, 10 percent of the world car market will be for electric vehicles. It has announced a series of partnerships with utilities and government agencies to advance technology where it believes it has a chance of seizing market leadership.
The automaker said on Friday that it would cooperate with Houston-based Reliant Energy, a subsidiary of NRG Energy in developing a charging infrastructure for electric cars at homes and near office buildings.
Ghosn, who was speaking to reporters at an event outside Dodger Stadium to kick off a U.S. marketing tour for the Leaf, said Nissan would roll out the car slowly in the U.S. market to get more feedback from consumers.
The Leaf is designed to draw power from a battery-pack developed with Japan's NEC that Nissan has said can be recharged overnight on a 220-volt connection.
Nissan has taken $1.6 billion in low-cost loans from the U.S. Department of Energy to revamp a plant in Smyrna, Tenn., to make the Leaf. The first models in the U.S. market will be imported from Japan.
Nissan's rivals have pushed competing battery-powered technologies. Toyota Motor dominates the market for traditional hybrids and has floated plans for a broader range of vehicles under the Prius name.
Others, such as General Motors and Fisker Automotive, are banking on plug-in designs that rely on batteries for short drives but also include a gasoline-powered generator to recharge the battery on longer trips.
"We think this technology is a technology we control, but we need scale. And that is why today we are building an overall capacity between Renault and Nissan of 500,000 cars and batteries a year that we are installing between the United States, Europe, and Japan," Ghosn told reporters.
"Hopefully, we are going to move upward. Because it is not about one car, it is about four cars for Nissan and four cars for Renault."
Leasing the car's batteries is a way to bring down the upfront cost, analysts say, and Ghosn said he preferred to lease batteries because Nissan can have control over replacement as technology improves.
But while Nissan plans to lease batteries on a global scale, executives said that they are still studying whether to do so in the U.S. market.
Ghosn said the Leaf would be profitable for Nissan. By contrast, GM has said it does not expect to make money on the first sales of its plug-in Volt, expected to be priced near $40,000 when it launches in late 2010.
"We will make money out of the Leaf," Ghosn said. "We have to make money, because if we don't make money the technology is condemned."
He added: "Everything we are doing today--and that is one of the reasons we are negotiating with the government--is to make sure this technology can continue to develop. We have a reasonable return on our investments and continue to develop the technology. And the consumer has to pay a reasonable price."
Story Copyright (c) 2009 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
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This radio-controlled model car is powered by a battery that can be refilled with an electrolytic fluid.
(Credit: Fraunhofer Institute)Imagine that you're driving your future electric car down the road, and it gives you a low battery warning. What do you do? Instead of spending a few hours at a recharging station, new battery technology being developed by the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany would let you pull into a service station and refill the battery with an electrolytic liquid.
The Fraunhofer Institute is using a redox flow battery, a type of cell that uses two electrolytic fluids exchanging protons through a membrane. This process generates electricity. Although this type of battery isn't new, the Fraunhofer Institute improved the energy density, making it equivalent to that of a lithium ion battery.
In production cars such as the Tesla Roadster, the lithium ion battery pack requires almost four hours from a quick charger to go about 200 miles. A redox flow battery service station would pump out the discharged electrolytic fluid from your car's battery, replacing it with charged fluid, most likely in a matter of minutes. Instead of getting new shipments of charged fluid, similar to how current service stations rely on tankers full of gasoline, the station could merely recharge the fluid on its premises, even using solar cells or a wind turbine.
Other companies are working on redox flow battery technology for stationary energy storage.
For 2010, Tesla updates its electric Roadster with a Sport version, featuring faster acceleration.
(Credit: Josh Miller/CNET)
Tesla often emphasizes that it works more like a Silicon Valley technology company than a traditional car company. And the company just proved it by delivering a model update to the Tesla Roadster for 2010. Remember, the Roadster has only been in production for one year, but in that time Tesla completely redesigned the interior, while at the same time adding new materials to reduce cabin noise. Model updates from other automakers often take five years.
We spent a day with the 2010 Tesla Roadster Sport, enjoying its unique driving experience and finding these updates made the previous generation car seem like something hacked together in a garage. Where the previous car had a fussy little lever for putting it in drive, the new car uses push buttons. To check battery statistics and change the drive mode, you had to use a touch screen by your left knee. That touch screen has been moved to the center of the dashboard. And in a real step toward convenience, the Tesla Roadster now comes with a glove box.
The rear air intakes get clear coat carbon fiber inserts.
(Credit: Josh Miller/CNET)Externally, the casual observer won't see much difference. The Tesla Roadster uses the same Lotus-sourced body clad in carbon fiber. But the carbon fiber stands out more, as clear-coat panels make up the hood, spoiler, and even the insets in the rear air intakes. The suspension is now adjustable for comfort or sport, and the all-new Sport version of the Roadster uses an upgraded power train that rockets it to 60 mph in 3.7 seconds, faster than the standard Roadster's 3.9 second time.
... Read moreOn Sale Now: $128,500.00
View the latest prices for 2010 Tesla Roadster Sport
In the past few weeks, I've had an opportunity to experience the cutting edge in plug-in electric vehicle technology. In some cases, you'd think you're just driving a regular car.
The bulk of production plug-in electric vehicles available now are either utility trucks, small cars that top out at 25 miles per hour, or the pricey Tesla Roadster sports car. Now automakers are building plug-in sedans and SUVs with lithium ion batteries designed for the mass market.
Judging from the cars I've driven, automakers are trying to strike a balance between enticing consumers with new technology but not asking them to make sacrifices. So even though electrification is shaking up the auto industry, the biggest learning curve for owners may be around fueling rather than driving. And if the goal is to make plug-ins mainstream, that's probably a good thing.
Consider the electric Ford Focus which is due out in 2011. It runs entirely on batteries for a range of about 100 miles and will be manufactured side-by-side with the gasoline edition.
During my drive two weeks ago, I was eager to feel the acceleration. Vehicles that run off electric motors have "instant torque," which means you get the car's top acceleration at all speeds. The Focus was indeed zippy and responsive, but when I asked if it was better than the gasoline Focus, Ford's director of global electrification Nancy Gioia told me that it'd be the same--on purpose.
Ford dialed back the potential acceleration of the electric Focus so drivers can expect the same from the gasoline and electric versions. The same is true for braking.
"That makes the technology less scary and more familiar--and, actually, safer. Because if you jump from an (electric car) to a regular car, you don't want to have to remember very different (conditions)," she said. Limiting the maximum available acceleration also saves the batteries to help deliver on expected range.
Electric drive
Another car in the all-electric category is the Think City, made by Think of Norway, which I got a chance to drive last week. From a design point of view, it's almost the polar opposite of the high-end Tesla Roadster. The Think City can go about 100 miles on its batteries and it's highway capable with a top speed of 60 miles per hour. In its first iteration, it only has two seats in the front and a hatchback.
Once again, I found the acceleration pretty good and responsive during my quick loop around a parking lot roof. But don't expect sports car-caliber handling. It struck me as a car simply designed to get you from one place to the next, but on electric charge. The company expects to start selling the Think City in Europe later this year and build a plant for the U.S. market next year.
Nissan, Tesla Motors, and Coda Automotive are among the other automakers betting on all-electric sedans. The thinking is that the limited range is acceptable for people who would rather fuel up on electricity than oil for their daily commutes. GM executives, for example, project that more than 90 percent of drivers could do 90 percent of their driving in electric mode.
If you drive 50 miles a day, all-electric cars probably aren't the best fit for your primary car. That said, a 100-mile range with daily charging can meet a lot of Americans' daily driving needs and rental cars are always available for long road trips.
Auto industry executives say it will be substantially cheaper to drive on an electric charge, but the high cost of batteries and power electronics raise the upfront cost. Ford's electric Focus, for example, will cost more than the gasoline version, although it should be eligible for a tax credit for plug-ins. The Chevy Volt is said to cost about $40,000, and Nissan's Leaf is said to cost in the $25,000 to $35,000 range, although the company is looking at options, such as battery leasing, to lower that upfront cost.
Plug-in hybrids
Analysts project electrics to be a very small slice of the overall market for hybrids and electric vehicles in the next five years because of the limitations on range and the anticipated higher cost associated with the new technology.
Sales of hybrids, meanwhile, are projected to grow. But what remains to be seen is how much traction plug-in hybrids will get. Toyota, Ford, and General Motors are preparing plug-in hybrids, which will start arriving in showrooms over the next two or three years. Initially, plug-in hybrids are being tested with fleet operators.
After taking the Focus for a ride, I took a spin in a prototype of a plug-in hybrid Ford Escape SUV being tested by utilities gauging the impact of plug-ins on the grid. The driving, again, was familiar; acceleration, handling, and the interior is all what I'd expect in an SUV. What was different is that I was quickly drawn to the fuel-efficiency feedback system.
In this case, the Escape drives mostly on its 10 kilowatt-hour battery (compared to a 1.5 kilowatt-hour battery in a regular hybrid) for the first 30 miles or so. But when you need an extra boost of power, the gasoline engine will kick in, which you can hear and see on the in-car display.
The big advantage of gas-electric vehicles, of course, is that you can fuel up away from an electrical socket. Overall, fuel economy will improve the more often you can charge up. In a test of its fleet of converted plug-in Priuses, Idaho National Labs found that its average mileage was 55 miles per gallon, but fuel economy dropped significantly if cars were not charged every day.
The technological twist on the plug-in hybrids is the extended-range electric vehicle or a series hybrid--an approach being used by the Chevy Volt and Fisker Automotive luxury sedans. In this case, it's the electric motor that moves the car all the time and the gas engine is used to run a generator for the motor. When I was taken for a drive in the Volt by a GM auto engineer this summer, I found the Volt had a lot of pep and handled turns well.
Having driven a number of plug-in vehicle variants over the past year, it's clear that these cars will work just fine for everyday driving. The technology of lithium ion batteries leaves plenty of room for both utilitarian and performance cars. Nobody can say how much more the average consumer will be willing to pay for fuel efficiency from the new technology, but the biggest change to daily habits may come when drivers fuel up by plugging in rather than filling 'er up.
Fisker's first car, the Karma, is set to be released next year. Its Delaware plant is set to make its next luxury car, which will also be a plug-in hybrid.
(Credit: Fisker Automotive)Upstart carmaker Fisker Automotive on Tuesday said it will purchase a plant in Wilmington, Del., to make a plug-in hybrid sedan.
The facility, which used to be a General Motors factory, will begin manufacturing a plug-in hybrid in late 2012, which the company expects will cost almost $40,000 after federal tax credits. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Delaware Gov. Jack Markell are scheduled to speak at an announcement ceremony on Tuesday morning.
Production of Fisker's "family-oriented" car, called Project Nina, will result in 2,000 factory jobs. The company anticipates making 75,000 to 100,000 cars per year by 2014. "Wilmington is perfect for high-quality, low-volume production," CEO Henrik Fisker said in a statement.
The Wilmington assembly plant, closed in July this year, produced a handful of relatively low-volume cars from GM's shed brands, including the Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky.
Fisker's first car, called the Karma, is a high-end luxury car priced at about $88,000. The Karma, which is will be manufactured in Europe, will be available in the middle of next year.
Fisker Automotive received $528.7 million from a Department of Energy loan in September, which will fund the purchase of the factory from GM. The company expects to buy the plant for $18 million and spend another $175 million to retool the factory over the next three years.
The technology used by Fisker, called an extended-range electric vehicle or series hybrid, is similar to that used by General Motors' Chevy Volt. The Karma will go 50 miles on batteries, and then a gasoline engine will run a generator for longer rides, for a total range 300 miles.
They tell us not to drive Hummers.
They tell us to disconnect our cell phone chargers, once our cell phones are juiced. They tell us to switch off our laptops, burn candles rather than electric light, and sail boats rather than fly planes.
But do they ever tell us to wean ourselves off the animals that we cynically use as substitutes for our failed relationships with other humans?
I only ask because an article from the New Scientist has wafted in front of my breakfast bowl and slapped me about my flappy jowls.
Quoting such luminous organizations as the Stockholm Environment Institute at York, UK, the article purports to suggest that our pets have all the eco-friendliness of that Northwest Airlines flight that forgot to land in Minneapolis and just kept on going to Wisconsin.
Please, I understand that dogs and cats are lovely beings that just want to love you and lick you as long as you feed them and wash them.
However, the SEI seems to believe that a cat has almost the same carbon footprint as a VW Golf.
Here is a sentence from the article that I know may make some of you rather unwell: "As well as guzzling resources, cats and dogs devastate wildlife populations, spread disease and add to pollution."
Yes, I know you thought it was only multinational corporations that do that. So please imagine that there is a book, written by Robert and Brenda Vale, called "Time to Eat the Dog?: The real guide to sustainable living."
Because you are more numerate than me, I will leave you to examine their figures in lascivious detail. However, the Vales estimate that a 4.6-liter Toyota Land Cruiser has an eco-footprint that is less than half that of a medium-size dog.
It is largely to do with the amount of meat and cereal that dogs chow, but this is surely a vale of tears for those who need their dogs in so many different ways: to get exercise, to get companionship and to become attractive to members of their target sex.
In case you are not quite thoroughly depressed by this estimation of our ultimate demise, might I offer you two further calculations from the Vales?
Well, should you own two hamsters, that is the eco-footprint equivalent of your plasma. And one goldfish? Well, it's the energy-sucking equivalent of two cell phones.
To continue this cheery mood for just a little longer, please hark these words the New Scientist quotes-- they were uttered by David Mackay, a physicist at the University of Cambridge: "If a lifestyle choice uses more than 1 per cent of your energy footprint, then it is worthwhile reflecting on that choice and seeing what you can do about it."
The average cat, he estimates, represents 2 percent of a human's footprint. And as for dogs, oh, it really doesn't bear thinking about.
It seems to me, therefore, that you have some harsh choices to make in order to save our world.
Your goldfish or your family plan? Your hamsters or, at the very least, the plasma in your bedroom? Your dog or your Audi?
Your animal companions or your technological ones? Life just doesn't get easier, does it?
The Toyota FT-EVII is a new electric concept car based on the iQ platform.
(Credit: Automotive News)Although a leader in hybrid cars, generally conservative Toyota has seemed uninterested in developing electric cars--until now. At the 2009 Tokyo Motor Show, Toyota unveiled the FT-EVII, an electric car concept.
Toyota does away with a traditional steering wheel in favor of modern art.
(Credit: Automotive News)In putting together the FT-EVII, Toyota used its own off-the-shelf technologies, such as the iQ platform and components from its Synergy hybrid system. Although not on sale in the U.S., gasoline- and diesel-powered Toyota iQs are sold in Japan and the U.K. For the power train, Toyota went to lithium ion batteries for the FT-EVII, as opposed to the nickel-metal-hydride power pack from its current hybrid vehicles.
Where many electric cars in development, such as the Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi iMiev, are specified to get about 100 miles range, Toyota only proposes 56 miles for the FT-EVII, and a top speed of 62 mph. These figures limit its use to sprawling metropolises, such as Tokyo, London, and New York.
Toyota also wanted to break away from traditional notions of automotive performance, so did away with a conventional steering wheel or foot pedals. Instead, the FT-EVII gets a weird-looking yoke, a piece of sculpture that supports an instrument cluster, navigation device, and a cup holder.
Toyota modified its hybrid badge, replacing the blue inset with a yellow one.
(Credit: Automotive News)The FT appellation, which we previously saw when Toyota announced the FT-86 concept, also on display at the Tokyo Motor Show, stands for Future Technology. We expect to see many more FT concept cars from Toyota in the coming years.
