While hybrid and all-electric cars are about five years away from becoming commonplace, 2010 will be a crucial year in determining how an electric car is designed, built, fueled, and used, according to a paper released Thursday by Pike Research.
The auto industry is already headed toward official decisions on technology and standards, and still to come is a natural market evolution determining industry leaders.
(Credit:
Pike Research)
The most interesting part of the report is how Pike Research analysts see driver habits and electric cars evolving.
Currently, the report said, many automakers, like General Motors with its Chevy Volt, are following a strategy in which the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) being offered "seeks to satisfy the approximate 80 percent of drivers estimated to commute 33 miles per day or less."
Cost will be a key factor in the evolution of the market. The Pike report says it's debatable whether hybrid and all-electric cars will prove cheaper to drive mile for mile, given fluctuating gas prices and the cost of lithium-ion batteries. A survey cited in the report, meanwhile, found that only 17 percent of drivers would pay a premium for a PHEV over a gas-powered car.
Once the market of environmentally conscious drivers is saturated, automakers will have to come up with a plan B, according to Pike Research.
"If a significant consumer audience fails to embrace the initial class of PHEVs because of the cost, it is likely that automotive OEMs may shift to designing vehicles with shorter all-electric range, and smaller, less costly battery packs," said the report.
The group's paper, "Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2010," was published in conjunction with HybridCars.com, leaving the reader to question some of its more subjective conclusions on hybrids vs. electric cars or efficient gas-powered vehicles.
But the report also includes many interesting statistical predictions for anyone following the evolution of the green transportation industry:
- By 2015 there will be 5.3 million places around the world to plug in and recharge a car.
- Despite a U.S. push to revive its failed auto manufacturing economy with green technology manufacturing, it will actually be Asia that becomes the "dominant supplier and consumer of electric vehicles and batteries." Pike Research attributed this to the Chinese government's initiative to produce 500,000 electric vehicles per year.
- The U.S. electrical grid upgrade will be sufficient to handle the influx of plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars overall, but neighborhoods with a concentrated volume of EVs could overwhelm a local utility.
- Most people will charge their cars at work or home, and use public charging stations sparingly and mostly when traveling.
- The majority of people will charge their cars after work between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. putting a strain on local utilities, which will then in turn offer incentives for charging after 10 p.m.
The full paper is available for free download from Pike Research.
The Think City: rearing to go.
(Credit: Think Global)One year after nearing financial ruin, Think said Thursday that it has starting making its small all-electric sedan.
The Norway-based company plans to begin delivering the two-seat Think City to customers in Europe, where municipal governments and utilities plan to use them as fleet vehicles. Think has orders for 2,300 of the cars, supported by government incentives. The initial car deliveries are due before the end of the year.
The Think City can go as fast about 60 miles per hour and it has a range of about 100 miles, on lithium ion batteries supplied by EnerDel. The car is being marketed to city dwellers who would like an electric car for daily commuting and errands, but not long trips. It's one of a few electric cars aimed at mainstream consumers that will be coming out in the next two years.
Valmet Automotive, which manufactures for Porsche and Fisker Automotive, has a production line of Think City cars at a plant in Uusikaupunki, Finland.
About a year ago, Think had to shut down its operations because it ran out of cash. Over the past year, the company secured more money and reorganized its management structure.
The company, which has its roots at Ford, plans to open a manufacturing facility and to launch sales for the Think City in the U.S. sometime in 2010. It also hopes to make money by licensing its electric power train to other automakers.
Mazda, EnerDel, Think Global, and others are partnering on a test project that will pair all-electric cars with stationary storage units as charging stations, EnerDel and Mazda announced this past week.
Mazda plans to convert some of its Mazda2 vehicles (known as the Mazda Demios in Japan) to all-electric cars running a Think drivetrain with EnerDel lithium ion batteries.
The Mazda2 (called the Demios in Japan) is expected to become available in the United States in 2010.
(Credit: Mazda)The cars will be offered to Japanese customers through a rental car program, called the Tsukuba Environmental Style Test Project, which should be up and running by March 2010 in Tsukuba City, Japan, near Tokyo, according to Mazda.
U.S. battery manufacturer EnerDel has described the test project as the Japanese equivalent to Zipcar in the States, a program in which customers join a car club that offers car rentals on an hourly or daily basis.
Instead of recharging stations tapping directly into a smart grid, those in the Tsukuba test project will use stationary grid storage units also developed by EnerDel. The stationary storage units will enable the rapid charging of the all-electric Mazda2 cars, while avoiding the possibility of having to tap into a smart grid during peak usage hours.
"The unique combination of on-site battery storage with rapid charging allows the use of direct current throughout the system, sharply reducing the amount of time needed to charge a vehicle," according to a statement from EnerDel.
The recharging stations, which will draw from solar panels as well as grid power, will be located at Family Mart convenience stores in the Tsukuba City area.
Itochu, a Japanese conglomerate that has partnered with EnerDel on energy projects since 2003, owns the Family Mart chain. It was through a partnership with Itochu that EnerDel and Think Global converted and tested a fleet of trucks to all-electric vehicles for the Japanese Postal Service.
Nissan will begin taking orders for its LEAF EV in Spring 2010.
(Credit: Nissan)The EV Project, a pilot program to develop a nationwide public charging system for electric vehicles, is expected to give people an opportunity to inspect the Nissan LEAF EV more closely on Thursday and announce expansion plans that include San Diego.
The unveiling will take place at a press conference in San Diego and include representatives from San Diego Gas & Electric, the City of San Diego, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), and Don Kramer, the president of Ecotality's subsidiary eTec.
Electric-charging station manufacturer Ecotality has received $100 million in stimulus funding from the U.S. Department of Energy and is one of the lead partners on the EV Project which will span 11 U.S. cities in five states: Arizona, California, Oregon, Tennessee, and Washington.
While the company has been partnering with Nissan to make public charging options a reality in the U.S., Ecotality has repeatedly said its stations are designed to fit Society of Automotive Engineers standards so that they'll be compatible with any electric cars built to that standard.
Ecotality announced Wednesday that its CEO Jonathan Read is currently in China as part of a 40-person delegation accompanying U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke. The group is taking part in the China Clean Energy Roundtable as part of President Barack Obama's visit to China.
Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao announced Wednesday a U.S.-China "Electric Vehicles Initiative" to encourage research and develop joint standards for electric transportation, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
Simon Hacket and Emilis Prelgauskas at their 313-mile mark in Coober Pedy, South Australia.
(Credit: Hackett)A record for a Tesla Roadster driven on a single charge was set at 313 miles (501 km) in Australia on Tuesday.
Tesla Roadster owner Simon Hackett and his friend Emilis Prelgauskas drove his electric sports car from Alice Springs, Northern Territory, to Coober Pedy, South Australia, as part of an alternative-fuel vehicle rally called the Global Green Challenge.
The Tesla's electric-charge port door was sealed shut at the start of the 313-mile journey and the trip was filmed for a documentary, as well as monitored by contest officials. The Tesla's lithium ion battery, which the company assures owners will last over 200 miles between charges under normal driving circumstances, had 3 miles to spare when the team reached its destination in Coober Pedy, according to Hackett's chronicles of the race experience on his company blog. (Hackett happens to also be the founder and managing director of Internode, an Australian national broadband and Internet services company.)
Hackett said in his blog the achievement is actually a record for any production electric car, not just a Tesla Roadster, which is why his team was so careful to record it. To squeeze as much distance out of the Tesla's battery as they could, Hackett and Prelgauskas tried to drive at a consistent speed of 55 kph (roughly 34 mph) for a large portion of the almost 12-hour journey.
"The security seal was applied to the charge port door when we started the journey. As this is being done as part of the Global Green Challenge, we have a full set of official verifiers here who will attest to the results and to achieving the outcome. We were followed along the journey by our support crew and a documentary film crew--so we have it on film," said Hackett.
While Tesla Motors is not an official sponsor of the contest or Hackett, the company has shown support by spreading the news of Hackett's success. It's not hard to imagine why as Tesla poises for a major retail expansion.
The stunt may certainly speak to consumers who likely drive nowhere near 313 miles in a single day, but are still reluctant to hem themselves in with a car restricted to a limited number of miles between recharges.
BOSTON--Ford Motor expects to manufacture as many as 2 million all-electric and gas-electric vehicles in the next 10 years, betting that rising oil prices and consumer interest will sustain a long-term transition to new technologies.
The company has set a goal of making 10 percent to 25 percent of its fleet "electrified" by 2020, which represents somewhere between 800,000 and 2 million cars, said Nancy Gioia at a media event here on Wednesday. Ford announced on Wednesday that Gioia will hold a newly created position of director of global electrification, which covers hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric vehicles.
Plug-in electric vehicles promise to offer a much lower cost-per-mile than gasoline cars and deliver substantial environmental benefits. But in the near term, hybrids will likely represent the largest volume in the mix of technologies, said Gioia at the event.
"We've finally demonstrated the technology, the life, the durability, the safety (of hybrids)--all of that has reached a comfort zone to make it viable. Now it's going to be affordability that will drive mass market adoption," she said.
A demo of a Ford Focus, done with Magna, that runs on batteries alone. Ford plans to introduce the car in 2011.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--If you want to find out about the cutting edge in green automotive technology, talk to fleet managers.
Although they may have a reputation for stodginess, operators of corporate and municipal fleets are pushing the limits of alternative fuels in both passenger cars and trucks. These projects are driven both by environmental programs and fuel savings, according to attendees at the AltWheels 2009 Fleet Day conference here on Monday.
In the past year, new products, notably hybrid and all-electric commercial trucks, are coming to market. Also, the confidence level in the various alternative energy technologies is firmer, speakers said.
"This is not toy science anymore. This is real utility," said Mike Payette, the fleet equipment manager for Staples, which hosted the event at its corporate headquarters. "It's working exactly as this technology is supposed to work."
Staples has just received hybrid and all-electric delivery trucks made by Smith Electric Vehicles which it will begin testing. The stop-and-go traffic of delivery trucks is well suited to hybrid and electric technology as the trucks can charge batteries during braking.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)Fleet managers said that the use of hybrid sedans and SUVs has been picking up for salaried employees, such as salespeople or police and fire workers. New York City, for example, has bought more than 3,000 hybrids--Toyota Priuses and Nissan Altimas--since 2001 as part of an effort to reduce the city's greenhouse gas emissions, said Steve Weir, director in the Office of Fleet Administration.
Now, hybrids are being scaled up for bigger jobs. Staples recently received hybrid and all-electric delivery trucks from Smith Electric Vehicles that it will test in different locations. The initial cost is higher--partially offset by government stimulus spending--but Payette estimates that operating the electric and hybrid delivery trucks will cost about half as much as their diesel equivalents.
From a technology point of view, hybrids and battery-electric vehicles are well suited for deliveries, since the stop-and-go nature of the driving allows the trucks to recharge the batteries during braking. Also, the length of trips is well understood, whereas consumers will typically do a mix of driving, including long trips.
But that doesn't mean that electric or hybrid vehicles make sense in every application, said attendees, who are using propane, natural gas, and biodiesel. Fleet managers need to also consider the driving range--Staples' electric delivery truck can go between 100 and 120 miles--as well as the weight of what's being transported.
"The question is not whether it will work, it's whether it will work for me--that's what's different," said Stephen Connors from the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "It's all about the drive cycle."
In many cases, in-car technology and programs to promote environmentally aware driving can deliver significant fuel savings, attendees said. The City of Keene, N.H., delivered monthly reports on fuel usage and mileage to department heads in an effort to encourage fuel efficiency habits, such as cutting idling. But far more effective are mechanical systems that enforce driver behavior, said Steve Russell, the former fleet superintendent.
For example, Staples changed the top speed of its Isuzu delivery trucks to 60 miles per hour and installed a system that automatically shuts trucks off after three minutes of idling. Those adjustments showed fuel savings between 4.3 percent and 5 percent on 75 vehicles, according to Payette.
Other fleets are simply converting to four-cylinder vehicles, at times adding more amenities to motivate employees to convert. Heating and cooling equipment company Carrier was able to meet its emissions-reduction goals by choosing a different size vehicle and reducing the weight of deliveries, said purchasing manager Denise Cross.
Business case
Conference speakers said that many efforts to make their fleets more environmentally friendly were driven by corporate environmental sustainability efforts, which can help improve a company's image. But at the same time, there is scrutiny on the financial implications of using hybrids or biofuels, for example.
"We were in a state of flux last year: 'is this going to work?' This year, we're able to put vehicles in place and say that there are lower emissions overall--so we have proof," said Tom Hartner, the manager of global sourcing at Millipore. "Now we're trying to make sure we can deliver at a lower cost--that's where we're going."
Often, the financial picture includes the cost of vehicles, the cost of fuels--biodiesel or natural gas, for example--and ongoing maintenance and infrastructure costs. Staples is projecting that it will be able to get its hybrid and electric trucks competitive on price compared to diesel after funding for the government-aided project runs out, said Payette. "I don't want to be the greenest company to go out of business," he said.
In many cases, corporations don't get federal tax incentives for hybrid passenger cars. But there is federal stimulus money available for projects to test and ramp up production of components for plug-in electric vehicles. For example, a number of utilities are testing how plug-in electric vehicles can fit into smart-grid projects, where cars are charged at off-peak times and act to stabilize power grid frequency.
MIT's Connors said that one of the underlying questions with green auto technologies is what will happen after the stimulus funding ends--and whether these projects will continue if oil prices drop significantly. But corporations and auto suppliers need to go through the trial programs to test various technologies and help bring down the cost of components, he said.
Staples' Payette said he expects the cost of battery and electric motors for vehicles to drop 40 percent as volumes ramp up. Although there isn't a widespread refueling infrastructure, biofuels and natural gas look promising as well, he said.
(Credit:
Nissan)
Nissan has announced that it will begin taking reservations for its upcoming Nissan Leaf electric vehicle starting in the Spring of 2010. The automaker predicts that it will have about 20,000 preorders lined up before production of the Leaf begins late next year.
According to Nissan's press release:
Nissan will invite people to "opt-in" and receive updates and information about Leaf through a reservation system that will tell them when the electric car is available--either for test drives or to take home. Participants will receive the latest news about the company's zero-emission activities as well as information about Nissan Leaf and how to become "plug-in ready."
Whether or not a deposit will be required to make a reservation is as yet undetermined, as is the final MSRP of the Leaf.
The Chevy Volt may be the most exciting car coming from General Motors, but costs remain a barrier to wide-scale adoption, according to Bob Lutz, the company's vice chairman and design guru.
During a Web chat last week, Lutz said gasoline prices will need to go significantly higher in the U.S. before the car can become "generalized." His comments were reported on Thursday by GM-Volt.com, a site not affiliated with GM.
"The Volt technology is very exciting, but costs will have to come down before it can become generalized, and U.S. fuel prices will have to rise to world levels, meaning $5 or $6 per gallon," Lutz said. That was in response to a question about GM's plans to use the Volt power train, called Voltec, with other vehicles.
The first edition of the Volt, due late next year, will deliver a jump in fuel economy, offering over 100 miles per gallon. The car runs 40 miles on a large lithium ion battery and then uses a gasoline engine for longer trips.
GM executives have said before that this first-generation technology will be expensive--unconfirmed reports have put the price at about $40,000 before federal tax credits for plug-in electric vehicles.
The company is already working on bringing the costs down--particularly for the battery components--for the follow-on editions, according to the company.
Several automakers are betting on plug-in electric vehicles, which will start to come to market over the next year. This week's Frankfurt Motor Show showcased several electric and gas-electric concept cars.
Studies have shown that electric cars are less polluting than gasoline cars, particularly if vehicles are charged at off-peak times. They also allow more people to "fuel up" with a domestic source of energy.
But the high costs of battery components and range limitations of all-electric cars mean that plug-in electric vehicles will remain a small slice of the overall market, according to experts.
The Boston Consulting Group earlier this year released an analysis that predicted electric vehicles are likely to have 3 percent market share in 2020, compared to a projected 20 percent share for hybrid-electric vehicles.
An executive from Toyota, which has sold more than 2 million hybrid Priuses, said this week that it will take until 2020 before electric vehicles will be suitable for the "mass market."
Electric vehicles are the clear favored technology for concept cars at the Frankfurt Motor Show this week. But Toyota, the leader in hybrid cars, thinks that the high cost of the lithium ion batteries will keep electric cars from penetrating the mass market for another decade.
Over the past three years, Toyota secretly tested lithium ion batteries as a potential replacement for the nickel metal hydride batteries now used in the Prius, according to a Bloomberg report
In its tests, Toyota concluded that lithium ion batteries were safe and reliable, but the higher cost doesn't justify a complete shift over for Toyota's hybrids, executives said. As a result, the company will remain with nickel-based batteries for most of its hybrid cars, according to the report.
Toyota will start testing plug-in Priuses that use lithium-ion batteries but is sticking with current nickel-based batteries for most of its hybrids.
(Credit: Toyota)The lighter weight that lithium ion batteries offer over other battery types has led automakers to that technology for all-electric sedans such as the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt extended-range electric vehicle.
Toyota, too, this week unveiled a plug-in Toyota Prius based on the 2010 model that uses a lithium ion battery. It expects to start leasing them to fleet operators early next year. But when it comes to the "mass market," the company still considers costs and range of battery-electric vehicles a barrier until 2020.
"Electric vehicles of today are less costly than in 1990s, but if you compare them with the other vehicles out there they are still too expensive," Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada said at a news conference at the Frankfurt show. "Unless there is a very big breakthrough in battery costs I don't think electric vehicles can take a large market share."
Among the many electric-vehicle concepts expected this week are four sedans from Renault, including the Fluence ZE which can work with Better Place's automated battery-switching stations.
