Business Tech

It's been a hot year for Netbooks, but not so much for the rest of the portable PC market.

Netbook sales are likely to hit $11.4 billion this year, a 72 percent rise from last year, thanks to a 103 percent leap in shipments, according to a new report from DisplaySearch. But notebook revenue overall will be down around 7 percent from last year.

The latest DisplaySearch Quarterly Notebook PC Shipment and Forecast Report, released Tuesday, found that the surge in Netbook (mini-notebook) sales was not enough to offset declines for ultra-portables and larger laptops. Aside from Netbooks, annual revenue will likely be down in every portable PC category.

Though notebook shipments are expected to grow 5 percent for the year, average selling prices (ASPs) will show a 20 percent drop as vendors have slashed prices throughout the year, DisplaySearch has forecasted . Average prices for Netbooks and 13-inch to 16-inch notebooks will probably be down 15 percent for the year, a significant cut as these two categories make up 85 percent of the overall notebook market.

(Credit: DisplaySearch)

For 2010, notebook shipments will rise by 16 percent, predicts DisplaySearch, thanks to better than average gains in Netbooks and ultra-portables. The CULV (Consumer Ultra-Low Voltage) market will drive growth with an array of new 11.6-inch and 12-inch portables sporting prices under $500. However, sales next year will likely be flat or down for most portable segments, except desktop replacement, which should enjoy growth of 21 percent over 2009.

The popularity of Netbooks may start to fade next year, DisplaySearch said. Shipments could rise 20 percent, but sales will flatten, and then drop in 2011 as prices come down and performance goes up for ultra-portables and larger notebooks.

(Credit: DisplaySearch)

"Our long-term outlook is that the mini-note share of the notebook PC market has stabilized, and will remain at approximately 20 percent through 2011 before starting to erode," said John F. Jacobs, DisplaySearch director of Notebook Market Research, in a statement. "While mini-notes offer lower ASPs and are thinner and lighter than notebook PCs, the performance of larger notebook PCs continues to improve while prices continue to steadily decline, increasing the performance gap while narrowing the price gap."

Someone needs to let the folks in Raleigh know we're in a down economy still. While much of the tech market lingers in the doldrums, Red Hat announced another strong earnings report for its fiscal third quarter 2010.

Here are some of the headline numbers:

1. Revenue of $194 million, an 18 percent increase year-over-year.
2. Subscription revenue topped $164 million, up 21 percent year-over-year (and 85 percent of the company's revenue).
3. Deferred revenue climbed 23 percent year-over-year to hit $619 million.
4. All 25 accounts up for renewal in the quarter renewed, and at 120 percent of value.

Small wonder, then, that the company elected to repurchase 1.9 million shares of common stock for $52.3 million.

While Red Hat's revenue growth rate has been sliding for some time, as The 451 Group has detailed, Red Hat's prospects remain bright. Piper Jaffray, for example, recently highlighted a range of factors contributing to its "Overweight" rating on Red Hat's stock:

Recent conversations with 40 Red Hat industry contacts point to an improved operating environment, an ongoing acceleration in the pace of Unix-to-Linux migrations, and Q3 results essentially inline with plan. We continue to see longer term catalysts for outperformance based upon the recently introduced virtualization products (RHEV), upsell to the premium priced Advanced Platform, adoption of cloud computing, and broadening awareness of open source offerings

In my own conversations with Red Hat executives, it's clear that the company has plenty of headroom in both its JBoss business (8 of the top 25 deals in the quarter included a JBoss component, and Red Hat CFO Charlie Peters said that it continues to grow faster than Red Hat's core RHEL business), but particularly in its virtualization strategy. Virtualization is effectively a way for Red Hat to sell much more deeply into existing accounts. Much deeper.

But Red Hat is also seeing traction in its nascent cloud-computing initiative. In the third quarter, Red Hat saw a major movie studio building a private cloud with its technology in addition to NTT choosing Red Hat for its cloud infrastructure, plus the signing of a six-figure Red Hat Enterprise Linux-based cloud deal.

Clearly, there is gold in the Linux hills for Red Hat, gold that doesn't seem to be running out, especially as Red Hat improves its ability to get free-riders (CentOS and unpaid RHEL users) to pay, as it did this quarter with two sizable "free-to-paid" deals. The only negative in Red Hat's quarter seems to be a back-loading of revenue, meaning that more deals closed at the end of the quarter than normal.

But Peters said that cash flow for the year would come in at the high end of his former guidance, so things remain on track.

In light of Red Hat's strong performance in its core Linux business, it's somewhat strange to see Novell reorganizing to emphasize its proprietary products instead of hitting hard on its still-solid Linux business.

But perhaps there's only room for one Linux vendor in the data center. Based on the last several years of Red Hat performance, that vendor appears to be Red Hat.

The latest Opera browser preview version may not be entirely stable, but it's definitely got its jetpack strapped on. Opera 10.5 pre-alpha, for Windows and Mac, is the first browser that's not powered by Webkit to approach JavaScript rendering speeds previously reached only by Chrome and Safari.

Opera 10.5 pre-alpha introduces Windows 7 support and a slight redesign, along with a rocketing new JavaScript engine.

(Credit: Screenshot by Seth Rosenblatt/CNET)

In empirical testing done on an HP desktop running an Intel Core 2 Q6600 at 2.66GHz with 4GB of RAM and Windows 7 32-bit, the pre-alpha scored 435.6 milliseconds in the SunSpider JavaScript benchmark. By contrast, Google Chrome 4.0.266.0, the most recent development build, notched 510.4 ms. The current stable build of Opera was more than 7.5 times slower, at 3284.4 ms.

Opera attributes this dramatic improvement to the new Carakan JavaScript engine, which they have designed from scratch to replace the Futhark engine in the stable build. Opera 10.5 also includes improvements to the Presto layout engine, and a new graphics library called Vega.

Other improvements noticeable in the pre-alpha include changing the URL address bar to include the same style of predictive smart search that Firefox and Chrome have, and the search and address bars now both remember searches, support deleting specific items, and have redesigned layouts.

The main browser interface has been redone, too. The tabs are now on top, the menu bar has been minimized behind a drop-down on the left nav, and the browser has better integration with Windows 7 and Snow Leopard. On Windows 7 there's Aero Peek and Jump List support to access Speed Dial and tabs from the Taskbar. For Macs, there's a unified toolbar, native buttons and scrollbars, multitouch gestures, and Growl support. Dialog boxes are now non-modal, which you means you can now switch tabs without a pop-up commanding your browser's focus, for example. This will affect verification and authentication pop-ups, and JavaScript alerts.

There are some known problems, including a lack of printer support in the Mac version and noticeably high memory usage. Users can expect these to get addressed before the stable build of Opera 10.50 is released. The Opera 10.50 official announcement and changes can be read here, while the current stable version of Opera 10.10 is for Windows, Mac, and Linux.

Consumers who want to watch high-resolution HD video on Hulu on the newest crop of Intel-based Netbooks will have to seek out models equipped with special chips from Broadcom or Nvidia.

Broadcom chip will enable HD playback on Netbooks. But will Netbook suppliers use it?

(Credit: Broadcom)

Though Intel announced a major makeover of the Atom processor Monday, it's still not powerful enough to handle the highest resolution video.

For playback of high-resolution HD video--such as 1080p--Intel has "validated" an additional Broadcom chip that Netbook suppliers can include in systems, according to Anil Nanduri, director, Netbook Marketing at Intel.

Not coincidentally, on Monday, Broadcom announced the BCM70015 Crystal HD chip for high-resolution video playback. The chip will provide software support for Adobe Flash Player (v10.1) and Windows Media Player (v12), the company said.

The catch is that a consumer will have to confirm whether a new Netbook comes with the Broadcom chip. If the past is any indication, the chip will not be widely available on Netbooks, though Intel's Nanduri added: "I believe there will be some (systems) using that chip." The playback of the lower-resolution 720p HD variety is possible on Intel-only Atom silicon, according to Nanduri.

And there's another, even higher-end option for HD video playback: Netbooks equipped with the new Intel processor and Nvidia's Ion graphics chip. "With Ion you'll be able watch Hulu HD or YouTube HD at either 720 or 1080. With standard Intel components without Ion you won't be able to do that," said David Ragones, product line manager at Nvidia, disputing Intel's claim that the Atom processor can do 720p video playback.

"Another category is Blu-ray video," Ragones said. "If you want to watch the latest Blu-ray movie that just came out, you can absolutely do that on an Ion Nebtook," he said.

Nvidia's Ion also supports gaming, a feature that sets it apart from the Broadcom chip.

New Netbooks with the Nvidia Ion chip will be demonstrated at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January.

Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell is trading in his old job for a new role at General Motors.

GM announced Monday that Liddell will join the automaker at the start of 2010 as its new vice chairman and chief financial officer.

Chris Liddell, GM's new CFO

(Credit: Microsoft)

As Microsoft's CFO since May 2005, Liddell led the company's global finance group where he managed a variety of tasks, including acquisitions, corporate strategy, treasury activities, tax planning, accounting, internal auditing, and investor relations. Microsoft said that during this past fiscal year, it slashed costs by $3 billion and rewarded investors with $14 billion in dividends and stock buy-backs.

Liddell announced in November that he would be leaving Microsoft at year's end. At the time, he didn't indicate specific plans for his next professional role, but said he wanted to look at opportunities beyond his career as a CFO. Stepping in for Liddell as Microsoft's new CFO will be Peter Klein, currently the CFO of Microsoft's Business Division.

"Chris brings a depth and experience to this job that were unmatched in our search for a new financial leader," said Ed Whitacre, GM chairman and CEO, in a statement. "Chris will lead our financial and accounting operations on a global basis and will report directly to me. We're also looking to his experience and insights in corporate strategy as a member of the senior leadership team in helping our restructuring efforts."

The 51-year-old Liddell has an educational background that includes an engineering degree with honors from the University of Auckland, New Zealand, and a master of philosophy degree from Oxford University in England. He also served with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a member on its Advisory Committee on Improvements to Financial Reporting.

Before joining Microsoft, Liddell was finance chief at International Paper and, before that, chief executive of Carter Holt Harvey, the paper company's New Zealand-based affiliate.

Intel is launching the biggest makeover of the Atom processor since the seminal chip debuted in the spring of 2008, and consumers can expect a crush of new Netbooks to follow.

Dozens of Netbooks are now offered at this Fry's Electronics store in southern California

(Credit: Brooke Crothers)

As previously reported, Intel's latest N450 processor and NM10 Express chipset--technology that had been previously referred to as "Pine Trail"--will be used in a new raft of Netbooks that will debut at the Consumer Electronics Show in January. Hewlett-Packard, Acer, Dell, Asus, Toshiba, Lenovo and others are expected to either announce new systems before the show or exhibit new models there.

Intel said there will be more than 80 new Netbook designs--typically priced around $350--on the way, with systems coming available by January 4.

The Pine Trail design squeezes the graphics function, previously on a separate chip, onto the central processing unit, or CPU, a first for Intel. The result--by decreasing the number of chips from three to two--is a reduction in the overall chip package size by 60 percent.

"This is the first monolithic processor with the graphics built in and the memory controller built in," said Anil Nanduri, director, Netbook Marketing at Intel, in an interview. The size of the accompanying NM10 "I/O" chipset has also been reduced, Nanduri said.

To the consumer this means better battery life and thinner designs. "We'll see sleeker designs coming into the market and longer battery life," said Nanduri, adding that average power consumption has dropped 20 percent over the previous generation of Atom technology.

"We got more than eight hours of battery life out of this system," said CNET Review's Dan Ackerman, after testing the new Asus Eee PC 1005PE Netbook, which is equipped with the updated Atom silicon.

Intel has integrated the graphics function onto the CPU, resulting in lower overall power consumption

(Credit: Intel)

Atom-based systems will be sold primarily with Windows 7 Starter or Home Basic. "These are the ones that hit the right price points," Nanduri said. "The kind of applications you load up as you go into Home Premium--with a much more richer experience--more performance is needed for that," Nanduri said, referring to higher-price Windows Home Premium.

Windows XP Home and Intel's Moblin Linux operating systems will also be supported. Moblin offers some benefits over Windows. "You will get a very snappy experience on Moblin and faster boot times because it's very purpose-built for this category," Nanduri said.

Intel expects robust growth ahead for Netbooks. Nanduri cited numbers from ABI Research that show Netbook annual shipments reaching ... Read more

The quality and speed of the browser is an essential feature for smartphones these days. And it's here that the BlackBerry Storm 2 has some catching up to do vis-a-vis rivals such as the iPhone 3GS.

The Storm 2 is an underrated smartphone in many respects. The interface is clean and easy to navigate, the standard software feature set competitive, and the ability to integrate all email accounts into one screen convenient.

But unbelievably--to me, at least--RIM failed to improve the browser on the Storm 2. Or let me put it this way: RIM failed to make perceptible improvements. (See RIM statement below.)

This is no small oversight. The key reason why the Motorola Droid has been a hit is because it couples a big screen with a high-quality, fast browser--making it the only premium smartphone to date in the U.S. to approach the status of the iPhone.

Which brings us to the gold standard of smartphone browsers: the Safari browser on the iPhone 3GS. This is nothing short of phenomenal. It's the closest a smartphone user can get to the full-fledged browsing on a laptop.

And the browser will only become more important as the smartphone screen size creep continues, from the 3.5-inch diagonal screen on the iPhone 3GS to the 3.7-inch screen on the Droid to the 4.1-inch display on the Toshiba TG01 (sold in Europe).

So, what was RIM thinking? The Storm 2's browser (like its predecessor's--which I had previously been using) can be glacially slow when loading Web sites. So slow that many Storm users opt for downloading the Opera Mini or Bolt browsers. But these browsers have shortcomings of their own, so they don't necessarily serve as satisfactory replacements for the Storm's built-in browser. (The Bolt browser does not zoom and Opera Mini--though blazingly fast--has trouble rendering some Web sites.)

As shown in the embedded videos, which demonstrate the load times for the CNET News page and the zoom features of the two phones, respectively, the iPhone 3GS (bottom) beats the Storm handily.

It is important to note that the Storm 2's built-in browser will speed up significantly if you turn off (uncheck) "Support javascript" in the "Browser Configuration" settings. And in the side-by-side page load-time comparisons with the iPhone 3GS (embedded videos), support for javascript is turned off.

But RIM needs to hurry up and match the competition. A fast, high-quality browser is ... Read more

The semiconductor industry is set to post a revenue drop of $29 billion for this year, according to research firm Gartner.

Worldwide revenue for 2009 totaled $226 billion, down 11.4 percent from 2008, the company said in a research report published on Thursday. It marks only the sixth time in 25 years that the semiconductor industry has posted an annual decline, and is the first time it has seen a drop for two years in a row, according to Gartner.

While revenue fell sharply at the beginning of 2009, carrying on a fall prompted by the economic recession the year before, it began to rise again in the spring, according to the report.

Read more of Chip revenue falls 11.4 percent in 2009 at ZDNet UK.

Mozilla Messaging hopes to release Thunderbird 3.1 in early April, a date that reflects a new frequent-release strategy adopted from the better-known Firefox effort at Mozilla.

Dan Mosedale, a programmer for the open-source e-mail software, published the date in a Thunderbird schedule draft he announced Thursday.

"If we're lucky, we relabel 3.1RC1 [release candidate 1] as final and ship it on Tuesday, April 6. Otherwise, there's an RC2," Mosedale said in the planning document.

The new version is due to get an updated Web browser engine. Using the same Gecko project that Firefox is built atop means Thunderbird messages can integrate with Web activity such as Google Calendar.

Another possibility for 3.1 is a revamp of the Thunderbird start page, Mozilla Messaging CEO David Ascher said Friday. That redesign, which Ascher described in May, could show more useful information than the present splash screen--for example, information about what activity people has been up to help pick up where they left off.

"The 'start page,' which makes a lot of sense in Firefox, never made a huge amount of sense to me in Thunderbird. In particular, it's shown only when a folder is selected, and no message is selected. That's hardly a logical time to show the (colorful, pretty, but fairly useless) page we show now. Instead, why not show information about the selected folder and help people who clearly intended to select a folder, so most likely wanted to do something related to that folder," Ascher said in the blog post.

The faster Thunderbird release cycle is just one attribute the Thunderbird team is trying to adopt from Mozilla's higher-profile Firefox effort. Also on the longer-term plan is financial self-sustenance. Those are big challenges, though. An easier adoption will be fun names.

Starting now, Thunderbird versions will be named after beaches, Ascher said in a blog post this week.

"Firefox releases have cool code names while in gestation," Acher said. "Firefox picks national parks as code names, as metaphors for the values that go into making a Firefox release. The idea made a lot of sense to us, so we decided to follow suit for Thunderbird. Rather than parks, we picked beaches."

First up: Hawaii. Thunderbird 3.1 gets the name Lanikai, Ascher said, adding that he misspelled it "Lanakai" in the blog post.