The settlement between Intel and Advanced Micro Devices isn't just a matter of business between companies.
Sure, it's a big financial deal when the biggest chipmaker in the world forks over $1.25 billion to its closest competitor. And the settlement, announced Thursday, officially puts an end to a five-year battle over licensing disputes and AMD's complaints of unfair competition.
Beyond that, there will also be an effect on the two chipmakers do business with PC makers, and how they price their chips. Still, the settlement won't likely foment major changes for consumers shopping for a new laptop or desktop.
Choice
AMD processors are readily available from most PC makers, the major exception being Apple. If you really wanted one before the settlement came along, it's not like you couldn't get an AMD-based machine in stores or online. Intel now has agreed basically to not punish PC makers that choose to put AMD chipsets in some of their machines, but that doesn't mean Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Acer, Apple, and others will suddenly want to use AMD's latest chip in their flagship products. AMD will probably continue to be used as the "value" option for PC makers looking to offer cheaper notebooks.
PC prices are already pretty low thanks to the Netbook movement brought on by Intel, Acer, and others.
(Credit: Acer)That said, there is room for AMD to increase its share in processors used in laptops. The company has made improvements in that area recently, particularly in the ultrathin category, according to observers. So if you're paying attention, you might see more from AMD when shopping for a new laptop.
Prices
My colleague Brooke Crothers made an excellent observation last week, that Intel, while accused of dampening competition with AMD, has actually kept prices very low for consumers buying laptops. Thanks to the Netbook movement, which Intel spurred with its Atom chip starting in late 2007, the average price of the small, lightly featured Netbooks is now below $500. While not everyone is in the market for a Netbook, all shoppers have ended up benefiting. In order to recoup some of the lost profit due to the popularity of Netbooks, the industry--led by AMD and its consumer-ultra-low-voltage chips--has now focused on selling ultrathin laptops, which typically cost somewhere between $500 and $900.
Though one might assume that Intel and AMD hitting reset on their competition and going head to head would bring prices down, that's not likely. If anything, prices may actually go up a bit, said Gartner analyst Martin Reynolds.
"This [settlement] potentially means that products cost a little more to manufacture because we don't have this irrational competition between the two," he said. "[PC makers] won't be able to pit the two against each other as much."
Speed to market
What matter to consumers most are price and capability. What matters to Intel and AMD is getting faster, cheaper processors that enable better battery life in laptops into as many new computers as possible. The speed of this cycle is very important. The faster the two companies come out with new products, the more often people will go shopping for new laptops.
AMD's product road map has severely suffered in comparison to Intel's over the last several years. Intel whips out new products on a regular yearly schedule. A quick infusion of $1.25 billion from Intel should do a lot to help AMD fund new product design in order to better keep up. Again, there won't be a significant change immediately, but over time we may see their speed to market pick up, Gartner's Reynolds noted.
Besides money, the end of the legal squabbling also means that AMD is freed up from focusing on the lawsuits and what Intel has done wrong, and can help the company focus on the task at hand: making good products at reasonable prices. So if not directly, the settlement will at least indirectly benefit those looking for laptops and desktops at their local retailer or online.
Of course the vast majority of shoppers, outside of those tuned into technology, probably won't pay much mind to whether there's Intel or AMD inside the laptop as long as it meets their expectations, said analyst Michael Gartenberg.
The buying decision is actually very simple usually, he said. "Does it even matter anymore? It's about who's delivering the cool machines at the price that I want."
Advanced Micro Devices discussed the Hemlock high-end graphics card due next week and third-generation ultra-thin laptop technology, among other topics, at the AMD Financial Analyst Day on Wednesday.
AMD Vice President Rick Bergman holds up the 'Hemlock' graphics card at AMD Financial Analyst Day on Wednesday. The product is due next week.
(Credit: AMD)"Hemlock will get launched next week," said AMD Senior Vice President Rick Bergman, speaking Wednesday morning at the conference which was streamed live. "It's in production. You'll be able to buy it at e-tailers around the world. You can see there are two GPUs. Five Teraflops out of this baby," he said. (GPU stands for graphics processing unit. A teraflop is a trillion floating point operations per second, a key indicator of graphics performance.)
Hemlock is expected to be appear as an HD 5900 series product--what some reports have called the HD 5970.
Bergman also addressed AMD's third-generation "Nile" ultra-thin laptop platform. "Bring the real PC experience into the ultra-thin. Battery life well north of seven hours," Bergman said. This is due ... Read More
By not coughing up a low-cost MacBook, as some had expected, Apple has ceded a potentially huge market to PC makers. But is this just all part of Apple's marketing genius?
$999 is as low as Apple will go.
(Credit: Apple)The announcement Tuesday of the $999 white polycarbonate MacBook was pretty ho-hum as product refreshes go (same price, same color as before) but the implication was important: Apple is surrendering a large, emerging laptop market to Microsoft and its coterie of PC makers.
Not that it's necessarily a bad strategy. Market researcher Gartner said recently that Apple's shipments in the U.S. grew year-over-year by 6.8 percent to total 1.57 million during the third quarter, putting it right behind Hewlett-Packard, Dell, and Acer. Comparatively, overall PC shipments in the U.S. grew by 3.5 percent from a year earlier.
But among those unimpressive overall PC numbers (HP's third-quarter shipments grew only 2.7 percent), was an impressive statistic for Acer: buoyed by Netbooks, Acer's shipments grew by 61.4 percent year-over-year, and it blew past Dell to become the No. 2 PC maker worldwide based on this growth.
Granted, Netbooks are a relatively low-profit segment (i.e., profit on a $400 Netbook is going to be a lot less than that on a $999 laptop). Nevertheless, they're a hot market. Intel CEO Paul Otellini has stated numerous times that Intel was able to create a market that grew faster than either the iPhone or Nintendo Wii. Case in point: Windows 7-based Acer Netbooks are now big on the Home Shopping Network--which claims to have sold more than 5,000 in one segment on Saturday.
And that's not the only market Apple is punting on. A new category of inexpensive, thin laptops has emerged with the roll-out of Windows 7 on Thursday. Like Netbooks, these laptops are light (typically 4 pounds) and don't include an optical drive. But they are relatively powerful and full featured. The 15.6-inch Acer Aspire Timeline, for example, with a 320GB hard disk drive and dual-core Intel processor is fairly well-endowed at only $500.
Apple is not receiving a lot kudos in the mainstream business press ... Read More
The chief executives of Intel and Advanced Micro Devices indicated this week that competition will heat up in the market for sleek, inexpensive laptops running Windows 7.
Both CEOs addressed this new market during conference calls after their companies reported earnings this week. Ultrathin laptops are inexpensive, light laptops--typically between $500 and $800--that are sold in a market segment just above less expensive Netbooks.
Intel CEO Paul Otellini on Tuesday said his company is gearing up to supply more power-efficient chips that contain two processing cores for better performance. "The bulk of the units that have shipped to date were single-core versions of the products," Otellini said. "You'll see a number of laptops show up in retail with the dual-core versions for the holiday season...more ergonomically designed, thinner, lighter," Otellini said.
HP's Pavilion dm3 starts at $549 with an AMD processor and $649 with an Intel processor.
(Credit: Hewlett-Packard)And AMD's CEO Dirk Meyer chimed in on Thursday. "You'll hear more...next month about the product lineup that we'll be rolling out over the next two years, which will include increasing focus on those small form factor notebooks," Meyer said during AMD's conference call. In the more immediate future, Meyer said AMD will have a "broader assortment of (ultrathin) platforms walking into the Christmas cycle."
To date, this new category of laptops has had a minuscule market-share impact because there was little perceived difference between a Netbook and an ultrathin, according to Bob O'Donnell, IDC research vice president. "A lot of people said this is not actually that much faster, so you're going to see a very rapid transition to all dual-core," he said.
Windows 7 should accelerate sales too. "I think we will see better sales next year," O'Donnell said, as HP, Dell, and others bring out ultrathins with Windows 7.
The category received a boost recently with the rollout of HP's Pavilion dm3, which starts at $549 with an AMD processor and $649 with an Intel processor. The dm3 is expected to be available starting October 22 with the launch of the Microsoft Windows 7 operating system.
Other high-profile ultrathins include the $548 Acer Aspire Timeline (at Wal-Mart) and the $549 Dell Inspiron 13.
Because ultrathins are more expensive than Netbooks, they are more profitable for Intel. "Part of Intel's strategy is to pull people up from a Netbook," said O'Donnell.
AMD, on other hand, is focusing solely on the space "between Netbooks and mainstream notebooks," Meyer said, adding that AMD, in effect, created the ultrathin category with the introduction of the 12-inch HP Pavilion dv2 back in January. "We created that category really in partnership with the HP," Meyer said.
A rip-out-the-carpet PC refresh of both software and hardware is in the offing as Microsoft's latest operating system and new laptop designs converge later this year.
Intel's Mooly Eden, general manager, Mobile Platforms Group, speaks at the Intel Technology Summit in San Francisco
(Credit: Brooke Crothers)At the Intel Technology Summit in San Francisco on Wednesday, an executive described the imminent mobile future, including a major refresh of Netbook silicon, better-designed "ultrathins," and turbo-powered high-end laptops.
Netbooks may undergo the biggest change. Models that appear after Windows 7 ships in October will see the most significant overhaul internally since the Netbook category debuted back in the spring of 2008. Intel's new "Pine Trail" Atom silicon will collapse most of the core chips onto one piece of silicon, improving the power efficiency and boosting performance.
"There will be integrated graphics inside the same (processor) core so you get better performance," said Mooly Eden, general manager of the Mobile Platforms Group at Intel, describing how the graphics processor and main processor will be grafted onto the same chip--an Intel first.
The segment just above Netbooks is ultrathins. These sleek, sub-$1,000 laptops should appear in greater varieties from more PC makers later this year, according to Intel--about the same time Windows 7 hits the streets. Aesthetics will be crucial. "You can't sell a keyboard and a screen," Eden said, describing the ideal ultrathin laptop design. "You have to sell something that somebody will desire. We need to go beyond the great CPU, great performance...to something that a normal consumer can look at say 'I want that.'"
One of the challenges for Intel is making sure these sub-one-inch-thick designs don't overheat. Eden described the use of laminar air flow technology to cool a laptop's outer skin. "This is the difference between thin comfortable and thin uncomfortable," he said.
Intel is also designing new fans that are better at getting hot air out faster. "We are putting a lot of effort into designing fans," said Eden. Intel demonstrated the fan technology at the conference Wednesday.
Intel described laminar air flow technology to cool the skin of ultrathins
(Credit: Intel)And how does Intel see these segments breaking down into screen sizes? Netbooks will have 10-inch class displays, while the "sweet spot" for ultrathins will 13.3-inch, though some larger ultrathins may have 15.6-inch screens, according to Eden. He also said there may be "some experimentation" with 11.6-inch designs.
Higher up the laptop performance scale are Core i7 mobile processors, also due around the same time that Windows 7 hits the streets. Eden showed how the gigahertz speed--or "clock speed"--of individual mobile processor cores will instantly spike in performance to accomplish a task then, in the next instant, go idle--what Intel calls HUGI or Hurry Up and Get Idle.
HUGI is a power-saving technology: the faster a task is accomplished, the faster the processor can return to idle mode--a state that uses only the bare minimum of power. Along these lines, Eden did a demonstration of Turbo Boost technology.
In the demonstration, one of the cores (inside, let's say, a mobile quad-core chip), would jump well over the processor's rated speed. For example, a processor rated at 2.0GHz, for example, may run one of the cores at 2.60GHz (or higher) while the other cores are idle. In the gaming world, this is referred to as overclocking.
A common theme of all these laptop designs was power efficiency, above and beyond Intel's traditional message of performance. All-day computing--on battery power only--seems to be one of the major rallying cries within Intel.
During Intel's earnings conference call Tuesday, CEO Paul Otellini said inexpensive "ultra-thins" will give users what they're missing in Netbooks, a theme that the chipmaker has been reiterating in various forums lately.
Acer Aspire Timeline ultra-thin laptop
(Credit: Acer)Intel continues to try to maneuver this new and more profitable category of laptops into territory where Netbooks continue to hold mindshare. Ultra-thins are low-cost laptops, typically with 13-inch screens, based on Intel's ultra-low-power (ULV) chips. Netbooks have screens usually no larger than 11 inches and use Intel's lower-cost, lower-performance Atom processor.
Echoing prior comments by other executives, Otellini said that ultra-thins address the Netbook's shortcomings. "When people try to do 3D games on these things (Netbooks) or try to run their office applications on them, they tend to think it's a bit slow and that isn't just the processor, it's the entire architecture," he said in response to analyst's question during the conference call, which was streamed on Intel's Web site.
"Now, if you want a thin and light notebook, you don't have to just pick a Netbook. You can pick an affordable notebook that has more functionality," Otellini said.
Well-established consumer perceptions of Netbooks and the higher prices of ultra-thins, such as the $699 Acer Aspire Timeline, makes the latter a challenge to position in the marketplace.
"When we first released our ultraportable (ultra-thin) a lot of people looked at it and said, 'oh it's Netbook,'" said Kelt Reeves, president of enthusiast PC maker Falcon Northwest. "No, it's close to a Netbook in size but it's much, much more capable," Reeves said, addressing user misconceptions.
Windows 7 may not go very far in correcting all the confusion. "Windows 7 runs well even on a $199 Netbook," said Ashok Kumar, an analyst at investment bank Collins Stewart. Kumar said Intel may continue to have trouble managing consumer perceptions of Netbooks and ultra-thins.
Otellini also revisited the subject of cannibalization--that is, the tendency for Netbooks to take market share from more mainstream laptops. "We're talking about a total cannibalization that's probably no more than 20 percent," Otellini said, in response to another analyst question.
The Intel CEO also said that Netbooks may become increasingly popular as a wireless 3G device sold by telecommunications companies. "I think in 2010 that's likely to be a large part of the business...There was a Best Buy, Sprint Netbook ad last week at $0.99 if you signed up for two years...And you'll start seeing more of that," he said.
Netbooks had a rocky start last year in some markets, Intel's marketing chief said at the Intel investor meeting Tuesday.
"In the first period--June, July, August of last year--there were some in the retail channels that were shipping (Netbooks) as notebooks," Sean Maloney said in a question-and-answer session that was streamed over the Web. "They were running ads that had a continuum of notebooks and had this Netbooky thing in there--it was called a notebook. They had very high return rates and a couple of these guys had return rates in the 30 percent range, which is a disaster."
Maloney continued. "So we gently went back to some of those chains and said if you segment them differently and state up front what they do and don't do, things will be healthier. You've seen some of the European channels saying this (Netbook) product does not do X and being very black and white and very clear."
Intel's marketing chief Sean Maloney showed this slide Tuesday and did a live demonstration showing what a Netbook can't do.
(Credit: Intel)At the investor meeting, Intel demonstrated on stage the performance gap between a Netbook and a mainstream notebook. In the demonstration, a Netbook and a notebook ran the same high-definition video of the NBA basketball playoffs. The video on the Atom processor-powered Netbook was jerky and dropped frames, while the Core 2 chip-based notebook's video was smooth.
The point was obvious: the Netbook's Atom silicon falls short in performing some tasks that a mainstream notebook handles with relative ease.
Along these lines, it also became clear at the meeting that there is a struggle brewing to clearly define to consumers the difference between Netbooks and upcoming ultra-thin notebooks, also referred to as the Consumer Ultra-Low-Voltage or CULV category of laptops. CULV notebooks--due in June--are expected to be priced in a market segment just above Netbooks.
Intel executives were peppered with questions from the audience--mostly representatives from Wall Street firms--about Netbooks. One audience member wondered whether Intel "had considered doing an informational advertising campaign" and asked: "Do you find that at all necessary to clear up some of the misapprehensions about what you can and cannot do with these devices (Netbooks)?" This question elicited the response from Maloney quoted above.
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