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FAQ: HD DVD vs. Blu-ray
October 1, 2005
At the fourth annual DisplaySearch HDTV: The Future of Television conference here, analysts, HD DVD and Blu-ray manufacturers, retailers, studio executives and software makers offered different theories as to how the format competition between HD DVD and Blu-ray will play out.
Ross Young, founder and president of DisplaySearch, the conference host, said both formats and their respective camps of supporters "appear ready to slug it out long term."
But Jim Taylor, senior vice president of the advanced technology group of Sonic Solutions, a maker of DVD-authoring software, speculated the conflict could end in "detente."
There are currently four next-generation DVD players available--three HD DVD and one Blu-ray. However, the next six scheduled for release are all Blu-ray. In the first six weeks of sell-through for each formatted player, 33 percent more HD DVD players units were sold than Blu-rays. However, Blu-ray player sales resulted in 42 percent higher revenues, according to DisplaySearch.
The Blu-ray format, which can pack seven hours of video content onto a single-layer disc, has the support of seven major Hollywood studios, 11 consumer electronics companies, four major IT companies, and leaders in the gaming and music industries, such as Electronic Arts and Vivendi Universal.
A single-layer HD DVD has four hours of playback, which is double the capacity of a standard-definition DVD. The format has the backing of five movie studios, but only Universal and The Weinstein Co. exclusively.
Naturally, HD DVD and Blu-ray backers are rooting for their own side to emerge as victor in the next-generation battle as it begins full force this fall and holiday season when more movie titles and players are released. But all sides agree: as high-definition TVs become more popular, consumers will want HD content that will make the investment worthwhile. As screen sizes increase, so does the need for better resolution.
The declining growth in the DVD market, which peaked at 20 million units sold in 2003, means the market is "ripe for a technology transition," said Young.
But are consumers ready? Sonic Solutions' Taylor believes the transition will be relatively smoother than the change-over from VHS to DVD. Since consumers are already familiar with DVDs, and as they see the increased quality of the picture and level of interactivity, choosing to switch to either HD DVD or Blu-ray will be an easier process than the switch to round, shiny DVDs from clunky plastic videocassettes.
Eisuke Tsuyuzaki, vice president of Panasonic R&D Company of America, said the adoption will be quicker due to the nature and speed of today's media, which is viral and ubiquitous. Video enthusiasts, analysts and news outlets will speed adoption rates of next-generation formats more quickly than 30 years ago, he said. Panasonic is due to release its first Blu-ray player in the U.S. in September, and Tsuyuzaki believes Blu-ray will be the ultimate format winner.
However, there are several factors that could slow the adoption of the new DVD format, chief among them the presence of two competing formats. "It won't be an overnight transition," Taylor of Sonic Solutions warned. An example of the detente he mentioned would be the rise of a dual-format player, a drive that supports both HD DVD and Blu-ray.
The format duel, all seem to agree, will be decided first and foremost by content. Consumers will choose their preferred format based on what movie they've been dying to rent or buy. Mark Knox, adviser to the HD DVD Promotion Division for Toshiba America, said he expects 200 HD DVD film titles by 2007. Sony anticipates adding to its roster of 20 current Blu-ray titles soon. The titles, not the technology, are what attract consumers. As Taylor put it, "People go to buy 'The Matrix' or 'Finding Nemo' (because of the title), not because they like a particular data rate or disc capacity."
Tsuyuzaki of Panasonic rejects the format war hype, particularly comparisons to the Betamax-VHS battle of the late 1970s and early '80s. The world, and especially media, have changed, he insisted.
One of the most marked differences is the philosophy of today's next-generation formats. HD DVD and Blu-ray are duking it out "to create an HD world" that works on consumer electronics hardware, IT and any other devices.
"I have no doubt (the next-generation format) will take off," said Tsuyuzaki. "The question really is can we create a healthy market and quickly...There will be kinks, but it will be fine."
See more CNET content tagged:
HD-DVD,
DisplaySearch,
Sonic Solutions,
Blu-ray,
adoption
Hmmm. Let's look at this literally: One movie will tilt me to buying an expensive movie player? I doubt it! Perhaps, if one format has an overwhelming number of movies in its stable, that might sway me, if there weren't other factors. But there is an "other factor": It's highly unlikely that any studio will release in ONLY one of these formats and NOT std-def DVD. That means both of these formats must compete with std-def DVD.
"Tsuyuzaki of Panasonic rejects the format war hype, particularly comparisons to the Betamax/VHS battle of the late 1970s and early '80s."
Okay, I tend to agree. But how about the format wars of CD versus SACD and DVD-A? If either high-def DVD format doesn't provide COMPELLING reasons to upgrade, both will fail. And I'm not certain that there's a big enough market for the required 50-inch or larger widescreen TVs that truly show these formats advantages.
mark d.
the capacity as HD and the upgrade path is even higher.
The thing people forget when discussing these new formats is
that, not only will you need a new DVD player, you need a new
TV as well. Do these people "really" believe I am going to go out
and spend $2000 on a new TV and another $1000 on a new
DVD player to have the privilege of paying MORE for the same
old movies I've been watching for years? There haven't been that
many decent movies released in the past decade worth buying
on HDDVD that I don't already have on DVD and VHS.
The winner will be whoever gets the price down to where Joe sixpack can stomach it. The specs won?t matter if you can?t tell the difference.
I'm only looking forward to the new format as a data backup & storage medium.
"In the first six weeks of sell-through for each formatted player, 33 percent more HD DVD players units were sold than Blu-rays. However, Blu-ray player sales resulted in 42 percent higher revenues, according to DisplaySearch."
Sounds like consumers are getting soaked on the Blu-Ray players... less sales, higher revenues?
"Since consumers are already familiar with DVDs, and as they see the increased quality of the picture and level of interactivity, choosing to switch to a next-generation format, either HD DVD or Blu-ray, will be an easier process than the switch to round, shiny DVDs from clunky plastic videocassettes."
Um... given one format this is very true. Give competing formats and the possibility of getting ditched in the long run, left with worthless technology? Not a chance. Most normal people want to part of an industry war.
"The format duel, all seem to agree, will be decided first and foremost by content. Consumers will choose their preferred format based on what movie they've been dying to rent or buy."
Um... yeah, I want to sink hundreds of dollars into uncertain technology just so I can watch a single movie. NOT! Listen, I know industry execs make millions and have money to burn. For them, this may be true. The average American is going to reach to affort a single format and is going to be very nervous about selecting the correct one. Nobody wants to be holding the BetaMax of the new millenium.
"Tsuyuzaki of Panasonic rejects the format war hype, particularly comparisons to the Betamax/VHS battle of the late 1970s and early '80s. The world, and especially media, have changed, he insisted."
Nice sound bite. What's supporting his opinion? He's wrong. Everyone outside the industry knows this, why is the industry acting so stupidly?
" An example of the detente he mentioned would be the rise of a dual-format player, a drive that supports both HD DVD and Blu-ray."
BUT... this is why it will not really matter in the end. Who Cares? Give me a player that playes (and eventually records) in both formats and suddenly there is no format war. Do I care what format a particular disc comes in? Nope. Do I care if my player can't play a specific disc I want? Absolutely. So the first company to release a dual format player will clean up and the war will be over. In a year, talk of this will be gone and consumers will be happily buying dual format players and as many discs as they bought in standard format DVD. The pigheadedness that cost us a year of dual formats is going to do nothing but hurt the early adopters, delay the adaptation of high def discs and **** off some of the industries best consumers - the ones who pony up large amounts of cash early in the release cycle just to have the latest and best. Fortunately they're often the richest consumers and can best afford the hit.
I myself am waiting patiently.
Unfortunatley they can't. Not because of technical limitation, but because of legal ones. The licensing of Blu-Ray at least (and probably HD DVD as well) places strong restrictions on these companies that make it nearly impossible to make dual-format players.
FWIW the European Commision antitrust group just recently announced that they're looking into the licensing of HD DVD and Blu-Ray due to suspected anti-trust violations in regards to this.
"Oh that's DVD, it doesn't hold very much and the picture is absalute crap. What you want now is a HDDVD/BRDVD (based on teh store's vendor agreement)."
As mentioned, HD video feeds are usless unless you have th 2k to spend on a 50+ inch tv. The new formats hold more information which would be great if this was a storage medium but it's meant as a delivery medium. They let the movie houses sqeeze more usless crap (marketed as "value added") on the disk in addition to the movie and half hour of comercials. They let the movie houses dictate when, where and house the movie is allowed to be played; if they could count occupants in the room, they'd be able to inforce the one rental per viewer clause.
Consumers are being sucked into believing that either HD-DVD or Blu-ray is the future in consumer products. The difference between the 2 and conventional HD is marginal at best.
p.s. to those about copyrighting, it's digital it will be duplicated, besides recorders are just around the corner after this year. (but for copying you WILL need a BIG hard drive)
However do I watch movies on my PS2 now that I am home all the time... NOPE!
The UI is not as good as my settop dvd and remote and honestly I am not even sure that the quality is quite as good either.
While a bunch of kids or people on tight budgets will find the 2-in-1 capability 'nice' I am unsure that your average MOVIE person will agree.
But what do i know eh?
The Xbox 360 has an OPTIONAL HD DVD player - so you dont get stuck with it if you dont want it. And you can use it on your PC too...
I think the PS3 is going to bomb - based on its price. Blu Ray / Betamax V2 will be the next UMD.
Some past examples should be instructive, but are evidently being ignored:
- DVD vs. HD DVD vs. Blu-ray is very, very similar to the recent CD vs. DVD-A vs. SACD fiasco. By the time dual-format players that could play both formats *equally well* came on the market, it was too late; most consumers didn't care anymore. This isn't ancient history - why are we repeating this mistake so soon?
- The new, stronger DRM will eventually hurt or could even kill HD DVD and/or Blu-ray. Recently, a friend of mine started talking about HD DVD. When I explained the new, draconion DRM both formats include and that BD+ is even worse, his first words were, "So why would I spend my money on that?" The movie industry needs to remember the failure of the DIVX format (not to be confused with the more recent codec) that Circuit City sold. Yes, they sold some early on, but once enough consumers learned the ugly truth, the product died from lack of sales.
- Other DRM failures of the past should also be instructive. Draconion DRM eventually rendered Digital Audio Tape (DAT) and Sony Mini-Disc irrelevant to the mass market. Consumers that understand the truth that digital media is still very fragile and that backups (or migration to new formats/devices) of favorite material are a must to ensure it survives more than five or ten years will not be excited about in investing in HD DVD or Blu-ray software locked up in the new DRM.
Other issues to consider:
- The mere threat that some/all HD DVD and Blu-ray players could refuse to output hi-def component analog signals and thereby lock out all the early hi-def TV adopters that don't have the latest HDMI input version could be a product killer. These customers will not be satisfied with a down-rezed analog signal! Demanding this capability was a serious mis-step by the movie industry. These are not the people you want to even risk alienating. To assume that they will be willing to junk their relatively new analog hi-def display (for which they paid $5K, $12K, or even $25K+) just for the privilege to watch HD DVD or Blu-ray shows just how isolated these executives are from reality. The movie industry needs to plan to support these early adopters for at least ten years, i.e. the typical life-cycle of the display, before even thinking about cutting off or limiting the hi-def analog outputs.
- The first platform (HD DVD or Blu-ray) to actually invoke the new DRM's capability to lock out a subset of players whose DRM has been compromised risks the death of that platform. Or is it only BD+ that can do that? I don't remember (which in itself should be instructive). You want to talk about "viral advertising?" The first player lock out will likely be a "shot heard 'round the world" in the consumer electronics mass market.
Early reports are that the picture quality on HD-DVD is quite good. Whatever improvements the Blueray players make in the next couple of months, they are still too expensive. The bulk of consumers will not pay more for technical specifications who?s benefits they cannot see on the screen. That?s what happened with Beta VHS.
I agree somewhat with the poster who mentioned that the battle between HD-DVD vs BR-DVD will be decided by the PlayStation 3... In fact, I'm a little surprised that the article itself failed to mention the Video Game component...and these people get paid to write basically incomplete reports?
Widespread DVD adoptions by major PC manufactures had relatively little impact back in the day on DVD sales?and continue to have relatively little impact on the DVD format market. 99% of all DVD software still comes on CD-ROM, and will most likely continue this way til kingdom comes. So that HP and others have ?adopted? HD-DVD over BR-DVD has all the likelihood of conversion as the PSP portable system did for the failed UMD market (Sony?give it up, we DON?T want your mini-discs!).
The PlayStation 2 helped invigorate the market?so much so that several DVD?s still bare the ?Compatible with PS2? sticker?try getting that sucker off! The original XBOX was irrelevant, owing to the non-standard DVD-playback features that required an additional purchase?now, let?s flash forward!
Enter both ?next-generation? machines (in power only?in reality mere upgrades): The PlayStation 3 and XBOX 360 game consoles. I?d like to say that these consoles will both have impact upon the markets, but in truth only the PlayStation will likely affect change. Three major reasons for this:
1. Blue-Ray included with EVERY system?both cheaper and ridiculously expensive models will include hard-drives, Blue Ray playback, and high-definition output. The XBOX 360 has different system configurations (one without hard-drive), and zero standard HD-DVD playback?gotta buy that additionally.
2. System conversion. Although this is certainly Sony?s generation to lose, it?s unlikely that their horribly over-priced console will detract 100% of the folks who have been with them since the start?whereas the XBOX brand enlists no such loyalty (outside some secular folk who see only Halos?). The newer XB offers no easy backwards-compatibility or brand-name awareness like Sony?s behemoth? so look for better sales for Sony?s machine.
3. Sony = Spiderman. Among others, I might add. Blue-Ray adoptions by many more Hollywood studios, quite a few associated with Sony themselves, will ensure a healthier stream of content for Blue-Ray technology, and provide many more movie options.
..remember, the PlayStation 2 is STILL by leaps and bounds, the single BEST SELLING DVD player on the planet?and with every PlayStation 3 comes a high-definition equipped Blue-Ray player. That?s an awfully big elephant in the room to ignore? yet this article SPECIFICALLY about high-definition player adoption found a way to do just that. BRAVO.
p.s. last thoughts: neither format deserves market-share, as most people on this planet are perfectly happy with DVD. Do we really need to spend $2000+ on a new TV,$ 1,000 (minimum) on a good sound system, $500+ on a player, and $30+ on new media so we can enjoy CADDYSHACK in high-definition? Where?s my DVD remote?
I agree somewhat with the poster who mentioned that the battle between HD-DVD vs BR-DVD will be decided by the PlayStation 3... In fact, I'm a little surprised that the article itself failed to mention the Video Game component...and these people get paid to write basically incomplete reports?
Widespread DVD adoptions by major PC manufactures had relatively little impact back in the day on DVD sales?and continue to have relatively little impact on the DVD format market. 99% of all DVD software still comes on CD-ROM, and will most likely continue this way til kingdom comes. So that HP and others have ?adopted? HD-DVD over BR-DVD has all the likelihood of conversion as the PSP portable system did for the failed UMD market (Sony?give it up, we DON?T want your mini-discs!).
The PlayStation 2 helped invigorate the market?so much so that several DVD?s still bare the ?Compatible with PS2? sticker?try getting that sucker off! The original XBOX was irrelevant, owing to the non-standard DVD-playback features that required an additional purchase?now, let?s flash forward!
Enter both ?next-generation? machines (in power only?in reality mere upgrades): The PlayStation 3 and XBOX 360 game consoles. I?d like to say that these consoles will both have impact upon the markets, but in truth only the PlayStation will likely affect change. Three major reasons for this:
1. Blue-Ray included with EVERY system?both cheaper and ridiculously expensive models will include hard-drives, Blue Ray playback, and high-definition output. The XBOX 360 has different system configurations (one without hard-drive), and zero standard HD-DVD playback?gotta buy that additionally.
2. System conversion. Although this is certainly Sony?s generation to lose, it?s unlikely that their horribly over-priced console will detract 100% of the folks who have been with them since the start?whereas the XBOX brand enlists no such loyalty (outside some secular folk who see only Halos?). The newer XB offers no easy backwards-compatibility or brand-name awareness like Sony?s behemoth? so look for better sales for Sony?s machine.
3. Sony = Spiderman. Among others, I might add. Blue-Ray adoptions by many more Hollywood studios, quite a few associated with Sony themselves, will ensure a healthier stream of content for Blue-Ray technology, and provide many more movie options.
..remember, the PlayStation 2 is STILL by leaps and bounds, the single BEST SELLING DVD player on the planet?and with every PlayStation 3 comes a high-definition equipped Blue-Ray player. That?s an awfully big elephant in the room to ignore? yet this article SPECIFICALLY about high-definition player adoption found a way to do just that. BRAVO.
p.s. last thoughts: neither format deserves market-share, as most people on this planet are perfectly happy with DVD. Do we really need to spend $2000+ on a new TV,$ 1,000 (minimum) on a good sound system, $500+ on a player, and $30+ on new media so we can enjoy CADDYSHACK in high-definition? Where?s my DVD remote?
I agree somewhat with the poster who mentioned that the battle between HD-DVD vs BR-DVD will be decided by the PlayStation 3... In fact, I'm a little surprised that the article itself failed to mention the Video Game component...and these people get paid to write basically incomplete reports?
Widespread DVD adoptions by major PC manufactures had relatively little impact back in the day on DVD sales?and continue to have relatively little impact on the DVD format market. 99% of all DVD software still comes on CD-ROM, and will most likely continue this way til kingdom comes. So that HP and others have ?adopted? HD-DVD over BR-DVD has all the likelihood of conversion as the PSP portable system did for the failed UMD market (Sony?give it up, we DON?T want your mini-discs!).
The PlayStation 2 helped invigorate the market?so much so that several DVD?s still bare the ?Compatible with PS2? sticker?try getting that sucker off! The original XBOX was irrelevant, owing to the non-standard DVD-playback features that required an additional purchase?now, let?s flash forward!
Enter both ?next-generation? machines (in power only?in reality mere upgrades): The PlayStation 3 and XBOX 360 game consoles. I?d like to say that these consoles will both have impact upon the markets, but in truth only the PlayStation will likely affect change. Three major reasons for this:
1. Blue-Ray included with EVERY system?both cheaper and ridiculously expensive models will include hard-drives, Blue Ray playback, and high-definition output. The XBOX 360 has different system configurations (one without hard-drive), and zero standard HD-DVD playback?gotta buy that additionally.
2. System conversion. Although this is certainly Sony?s generation to lose, it?s unlikely that their horribly over-priced console will detract 100% of the folks who have been with them since the start?whereas the XBOX brand enlists no such loyalty (outside some secular folk who see only Halos?). The newer XB offers no easy backwards-compatibility or brand-name awareness like Sony?s behemoth? so look for better sales for Sony?s machine.
3. Sony = Spiderman. Among others, I might add. Blue-Ray adoptions by many more Hollywood studios, quite a few associated with Sony themselves, will ensure a healthier stream of content for Blue-Ray technology, and provide many more movie options.
..remember, the PlayStation 2 is STILL by leaps and bounds, the single BEST SELLING DVD player on the planet?and with every PlayStation 3 comes a high-definition equipped Blue-Ray player. That?s an awfully big elephant in the room to ignore? yet this article SPECIFICALLY about high-definition player adoption found a way to do just that. BRAVO.
p.s. last thoughts: neither format deserves market-share, as most people on this planet are perfectly happy with DVD. Do we really need to spend $2000+ on a new TV,$ 1,000 (minimum) on a good sound system, $500+ on a player, and $30+ on new media so we can enjoy CADDYSHACK in high-definition? Where?s my DVD remote?
Hmm. I don't think so. Reason is because previous game machines that played video made such poor (human factors) video players. With Sony working hard to keep the price of the PS3 down, and with the high expense for various new developments (Blu-Ray, Cell, etc), I don't think they're inclined to spend a lot of engineering dollars to make the PS3 a good Blu-Ray movie player. It'll be there, I'm sure, but I think most folks will look somewhere else for their movie playing experience.
mark d.
After that, upgrading was probably necessary... So the argument wasn't that people will REMAIN watching Blue-Ray on their PS3 but rather, begin watching Blue-Ray on their PS3.
Logically, it?s all in the numbers:
1. Standard Blue-Ray player (minimum) = $1000
2. Standard HD-DVD player (minimum) = $ 500
Or?..
1. PS3 Blue-Ray enabled: = $500/$600
2. XBOX HD-DVD enabled: $400 (system) / $ 200 (HD add-on est.) = $600
?when price becomes irrelevant, the format war will most likely be decided by the video game console market. It?s FAR less of a stretch to think that the average person will buy a PlayStation 3 versus the possibility that they?ll buy a MOVIE-only player.
Personally? Although I have a nice Samsung Hi-Def TV (with 2 HDMI?mmm, mmm!) I?m skipping this bloated ?format war? as I?m perfectly happy with DVD. More than happy, actually, I love the format. And for video games? The new XBOX has over-priced, under-quality software and the new PlayStation is FAR too expensive? so it?s back to Nintendo for me. Wii, Baby! It?s all about the Wii?seriously.
- But then again
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by heystoopid
August 18, 2006 9:41 PM PDT
- But then again, given Moore's Law, the advances in computer technology, will make this optical format redundant, by the time it may sprout wings to fly or die!
-
Reply to this comment
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(43 Comments)Too soon to tell, which format will fly or die!
Fence sitting appears to best option, at this point in time, let the smoke clear first!