September 11, 2007 12:25 PM PDT
Running the numbers on Vista
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Standalone unit sales of Vista at U.S. retail stores were down 59.7 percent compared with Windows XP, during each product's first six months on store shelves, according to NPD Group. In terms of revenue, sales are also down, but the drop has been less steep, at 41.5 percent. The findings largely mirror the sales pattern NPD saw for Vista during its first week on the market in January.
"It's just not doing well," NPD analyst Chris Swenson said of Vista's performance at retail stores, though he added that most people get their operating system on new PCs, with only a minority of customers purchasing boxed copies. The report, titled "Windows Vista Still Underperforming in U.S. Retail," will be sent to clients Friday.
Microsoft also agreed that an analysis of boxed copy sales is not representative of Vista's momentum, noting the trend of people getting a new operating system with a new PC has further accelerated with Vista.
"While we can't comment on the findings of a report we haven't seen, we continue to be on track in all segments we follow," the company said in a statement to CNET News.com. "As of this summer, more than 60 million licenses have been sold."
Microsoft noted in a regulatory filing that more than 80 percent of its Windows revenue comes from computer makers that install the operating system on new machines, with boxed copies accounting for only a fraction of total sales. And the PC market is far larger than it was five years ago. According to research firm Gartner, roughly 239 million PCs were sold worldwide last year, compared with 128 million in 2001.
In many ways, sales of Vista are tied closely to the rate of PC sales. One of the big variables is how quickly businesses move to adopt Vista. Most businesses are not moving to the operating system in significant numbers yet, though Microsoft has begun to tout a few large deployments from corporations including Infosys, Citigroup, Charter Communications and Continental Airlines.
Ahead of Vista's release, the software maker said that it expected businesses to adopt the new operating system at twice the rate of XP during its first year on the market.
However, many businesses have said they are waiting until Microsoft releases the first update to Vista before considering deployments of the operating system. Microsoft is starting beta testing of its first service pack for Windows Vista, though that update won't be released in final form until next year.
News on the retail front is brighter for Office, which was released to stores the same day as Vista.
Retail sales of Office products from January through June were roughly double those of Office 2003 during its first six months on the market and up 59.6 percent from Office sales for the first six months of last year. (Sales of Office 2003 at retail continued to grow over the life of the product.)
While much of the sales were for the new Office 2007, Swenson said just over 20 percent of all boxed copies of Office were Office for Mac. Swenson credited the large number of people switching to Macs as part of the reason for the spike in Mac Office sales.
"If I buy a new PC I can reuse old Windows software," Swenson said. But, if someone is switching from a PC to a Mac and wants Office, he said, "you have to buy new software."
NPD's data comes from its monthly sales reports of software sold at major retailers including Best Buy, CompUSA, Target and Apple's retail stores. It also includes e-commerce sites such as Amazon.com, Buy.com and BestBuy.com.
As for why Vista sales are down, Swenson said it is probably because of a number of factors. More stringent hardware requirements mean that more buyers who want Vista decide to get a new PC, particularly as computer prices have come down so steeply compared with XP's early days. Also, he said, Microsoft has done less advertising than it did with XP.
"The problem is that there are a lot of complex new features in Vista, and you need to educate consumers about them," Swenson said. "Much like Apple educating the masses about the possibilities of the iPhone, or focusing on a single feature or benefit of the Mac OS in the Mac vs. PC commercials, Microsoft should be educating the masses about the various new features in a heavy rotation of Vista in TV, radio and print ads. But the volume of ads has paled in comparison to the ads run for XP."
Just because boxed Vista sales are down doesn't mean they won't pick up, he added. He noted that XP sales peaked a few years after its 2001 launch.
"My hypothesis as to why is that there were a lot of people that bought PCs running 2000 or ME before the XP launch, and thus when they decided to upgrade they opted for the XP upgrade awhile after their initial purchase," Swenson said. "There is a possibility that we might see a similar trend with Vista."
But given the fact that only relatively new PCs can be upgraded to Vista, and with standalone sales not showing signs of improving, Swenson said, "it's looking less and less likely that this will happen."
See more CNET content tagged:
NPD Group Inc., Microsoft Office, retailer, Microsoft Windows Vista, Microsoft Office 2003
121 comments
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IMO, a lot of people using Windows 2000 were waiting for Longhorn but it was so late their computers wore out before it arrived. So they bought XP.
Then when Vista arrived it was, for businesses, a big disappointment. So they've stayed with XP, and/or switched to Macs (and to a lesser extent, Linux).
The business license for Vista Upgrade is $92:
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.provantage.com/microsoft-open-charity-licenses-66j-01017~4MSOC2WY.htm" target="_newWindow">http://www.provantage.com/microsoft-open-charity-licenses-66j-01017~4MSOC2WY.htm</a>
Retail $150:
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16832116139" target="_newWindow">http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16832116139</a>
I'm sure businesses have switched en masse to Linux or Mac OS. Why not Amiga while they're at it?
explain away the obvious. The reason that Vista isn't selling well
is simply that people do not like it.
The reason that XP was so successful is that it made important
tasks easier for many people. With XP, for the first time, people
could easily connect to wireless networks, transfer photos from
their digital cameras, and burn CDs. XP offered many
improvements over Windows 2000 in these areas and was much,
much more stable than Windows 98/Me. Also, for many people,
XP was their first OS that they learned how to use.
Ask a group of average-skilled users what Vista features are
important to them and all you'll hear is the sound of crickets.
Even worse, Vista makes common tasks harder for many people
because Microsoft has changed the interfaces and now people
have to re-learn how to do the things that they already know
how to do under XP. Vista also introduces software
incompatibilities (lots of software simply doesn't work) and has
problems with a lot of existing hardware (old drivers do not
work and there are no updates).
Why would the average person want to deal with all the
headaches that Vista creates? It's a train wreck.
It still crashes, freezes, and it's the same crap all over again with more popups than ever.
XP is not that great, but it's much better than Vista will every be, I still use it once in a while to play games. I now on average turn my XP computer one a month or less, but I used to use it everyday. How times have changed, OS X and Linux, and maybe Open Solaris one day, we'll see how that goes.
Viva Linux! and OS X.
10.5 just around the corner.
Remember OSX when it hit the market? Couldn't even play a DVD. It was years before even Apple made it the default.
Some 'failure'. Every other company out there wishes for such a 'bad' release.
Try again folks. Vista, even as it 'tanks', is far more popular and successful then the lame, backwards technology you praise. My sympathy can't make up for your ignorance, but you have it
Other than that is is just eye candy requiring too much hardware to function properly and UAC is a freakin' nightmare.
I also don't like the idea that it can be placed into a reduced function mode by Microsoft's SPP.
If it weren't for that single item I might consider it but that in itself makes it a no-go for me.
It is a bloated piece of eye-candy...PERIOD.
I am personnaly going to hold out with XP Pro as long as it is supported which by then Linux will have gotten to the point of XP in respect to user friendliness. Ubuntu and Novell SUSE 10.2 are almost there now.
Bottom line: Unless Microsoft rids its OS's of the ability to be remotely disabled I will not be going to Windows after XP is non-supported. I will either go to a Mac or Linux.
(Most corporate upgrades would be on volume licence programs - neither boxed nor OEM. This is not mentioned in this article)
But, 60 million copies in 6 months. How many PCs were sold in those 6 months? Last year, total sales were 239 million, so lets guess at 120 million.
Was Vista really only shipped on 50% of PC sold. What's on the other 50%? XP?
A good article, CNET, would have answered this kind of question.
1) PC prices have come down considerably since XP was released. This makes users more likely to purchase a new PC, probably with Vista, than purchase a retail/upgrade copy of Vista.
2) After a few years of relative product stagnation, Intel has finally come out with a multi-core processor family that is compelling for new PC purchases. If people were still running P4s and the mainstream chips were 4GHz by now, a lot of people would buy new or upgrade copies of Vista for their 2-3GHz machines that are 2-4 years old. Multi-core chips give buyers one more reason to buy a whole new PC, again likely with Vista pre-installed.
Retail copies may be profitable for MS, but they don't clearly indicate the Vista adoption rate.
-Mister Winky
MS did push Vista pretty hard at the start, didn't they?
If it is a business system your hardware will not just shutdown on you unless you are dealing with protected media and not just because your monitor or graphics card is not meeting the requirements for something you are not doing.
On my network I can see this as a benefit as here there should be no reason to be playing a movie on a business system.
Even at its worst, it doesn't disable the monitor or graphics card, just not send that specific marked content on it.
It's a pain, but unless hit that option a) (watch an HD DVD on that machine), it's not going to bug you much.
As for Vista, some people choose to use it. Some people choose to smoke crack or jump off of a bridge. Its called freedom of choice.
That being said, I still wouldn't trust a Microsoft-designed subsystem to function properly 100% of the time, or to be designed in such a way that it can't be triggered by nefarious or ill-supported software. That kind of disabling logic shouldn't be there to start with.
Microsoft literally states on their site that the protection is activated when the content is played. They have said this from the beginning of Visa, but like many things it was scewed and misinformed to the point of hilarity.
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.microsoft.com/whdc/device/stream/output_protect.mspx" target="_newWindow">http://www.microsoft.com/whdc/device/stream/output_protect.mspx</a>
Now with that, I don't agree with DRM or their output protection system, but they aren't the ones pushing it either.
That learning curve is part of Vista's undocumented cost, and can cost thousands per user.
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9035478" target="_newWindow">http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9035478</a>
...and it'll be double the fun for Vista's future sales >:)
/P
The market has changed.
The OEM copy you get through HP or Dell is a great deal.
Well i guess i will get it when i up grade my PC which won't be for awhile and if i do i might dual boot a mac.
If you're just looking for basic security and Windows Flip, you can upgrade from XP for 70 bucks.
Moreover, it's not just bells and whistles. Home Premium includes, for example, Windows Movie Maker software pack capable of creating and manipulating high definition video files, something that'll cost you a pretty penny from the few other software vendors capable of achieving it. iLife 08, the Mac bundle with a counterpart to Movie Maker, costs 70+ bucks, and standalone software tends to be even pricier.
Elegant voice control software is included in all versions. Strong search capabilities. Better large memory use capabilites (/3g flag). DirectX10 support. More power management controls. *Much* more reliable TCP/IP stack. Inherent IPv6 support for when Cisco decides to push us over the bridge.
It's not just bells and whistles, even with just the Home packs. It's not all it should have been, but that's almost always the case.
NOT WORTH IT--stay with XP it's way better.
Vista is a bug ridden piece of junk that lacks any innovation or imagination. I don't understand why microsoft wasted their time or my money.
I'm sorry you paid so much for it; I got it with a new computer and I feel overcharged.
I would do the same thing, in fact I encourage you to "upgrade" from Vista to XP Pro but before you start your install go through the device manager list and make sure you can get drivers for XP for all of them. Some vendors like HP are not providing drivers for XP since they do not offer XP as an OS option as Dell does on their consumer systems.
Just a heads up.
Since hard drives are so cheap I thought I would get an extra hard drive and try installing Ubuntu on it. It is about 15% faster than XP Pro and more of the gadgets on the laptop work than they do with the OEM version of XP. I bet if I used VMWare Workstation I could run XP pro on this thing under Linux faster than I can run Vista on it.
So I'm currently waiting for an RMA number for Toshiba for the laptop because Vista is unusable for me and they won't support it under XP/Pro. Too bad because it was a nice laptop.
I'm thinking I'll just stop buying computers, run Linux on the older ones. They at least won't orphan support at some random future date.
--Chuck
In order for Vista to actually be of any use at all, it is necessary to disable nearly all of the features that they tout as being improvements! Sorry but I just don't buy it. I have used beta software for many many years that didn't have nearly as many issues as the the released version of Vista does. I have personally been running it for over one year on a few of my systems; monitoring its progress. Sad to say that it has been more of a regression than progression since features were cut and the released stuff still does not work properly.
For my daily work I use XP and will continue to for some time. I will not allow any of my users at work to switch to Vista because of the numerous issues. The fact that Microsoft is forcing the OEM's to sell Vista on new systems will not have much of an effect as the corporate world installs XP images over top of the OEM shipped version anyway. I just feel sorry for the poor home users that are really getting used...
Surprise! The drivers and app support have improved since release. Amazing isn't it?
I like it, my wife likes it, it's stable runs great in either 32 or 64 bit installations. Yes the UAC is annoying when you're first setting the system up, but once done it only pops up when it needs to.
Is there any reason to upgrade if your xp system is running well? No, not really, but if you're buying a new system make sure the decision to to go Xp instead of Vista is based on facts rather than FUD.
Swenson said. But, if someone is switching from a PC to a Mac
and wants Office, he said, "you have to buy new software.""
Would someone please bring Swenson up to date about Apple
switching to Intel and how it's now possible to run Windows (and
Office) on a Mac.
Apple Macintosh computers are not switching so they can run XP or
Vista in Boot Camp. While many may use Boot Camp or Parallels to
run Windows from time to time, most switchers are using the Mac
OS on their shiny new Intel-based Macs. As such, it makes sense
that a higher percentage of Mac buyers are buying Office than
Windows PC buyers since they can't use old software. If you think
otherwise, you're the clueless one.
If you purchased retail copies or have a site/enterprise license, that's different, of course.
-Mister Winky
Windows software can't be run on the new Intel-based Macs. In
fact, in the report on Windows Vista that Ina mentioned in his
article, I have included data pertaining to the rapid sales growth
of Parallels Desktop in the U.S. retail channel, and try to estimate
how many units of Vista Ultimate and Vista Business have been
purchased by Mac users who wish to run Windows software on
their Intel-based machines. In fact, Ina mentioned this point -
that NPD believes an increasing number of Mac users are buying
Vista - in his follow up post on Office, found here: <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://" target="_newWindow">http://</a>
www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9776575-7.html?tag=bl
The ?infrastructure? label that I use when referring to Windows is the equivalent of our use of ?gas? in the auto industry (diesel being the MAC). These are the platforms of our technocracy and as they mature and become more stable there will be reluctance or less of a need to develop and change that part of the structure. The OS development cycle will become longer (as we are now seeing) and more changes will be seen in the applications environment (word, number and voice processing).
And I'm a Vista user both at home and at work. My company let me upgrade (as a programmer) but is waiting for SP1.
Are you telling me you have never seen the dialog saying some software has stopped responding and will be closed? I haven't found a piece of software that doesn't do it yet, including explorer.exe!
I as a media/content professional cannot upgrade to Vista because it does not yet support my needs well enough. Yes, it is killing me because my computer is wearing becasue it is about 5 years old. Some of the upgrades to my lastest applications have stated Vista problems.
The shoddy and shabby release of Vista ruined the party for many of us.
I am usually pro MS bust this time Microsoft disappointed me very much. If you people at Microsoft can't do the OS job right move over and let Apple show you how it needs to be done. Geesh!
Sounds like your anger is misguided. MS can't force software vendors to upgrade their applications faster any more than Apple could force software vendors to release Intel compatible binaries.
Did you find anything wrong with Vista itself or are you just peeved that your application vendors haven't made their applications compatible?
-Mister Winky
Yeah, let Apple show how things need to be done. Like how they messed up with the iTunes ringtone issue? Is that the kind of prowess Apple wants to show? That's a schoolboy error. Two patches in 48 hours for just a friggin' ringtone maker? You have got to be kidding me.
The only reason why there are few (I'm not sure, if it is really few) known bugs to Apple products is because they have a small market share. Once they enter the big arena, and more people actually use their products, bugs will be uncovered. Another example is the iPhone, shortly after released, a vulnerability was uncovered.
This is an exaggeration. I have 1GB of RAM and I am enjoying Vista to the fullest. I have Dreamscene, Media Player (music), and Visual Studio 2005 opened at the same time and it's still working great. I even play with the Flip 3D when I'm bored.
The support for XP drivers has been ridiculous on these new machines, especially for my Sony Vaio laptop, though I did finally get it working after two days of searching and hacking at it. It's almost as if Microsoft is abandoning XP and trying to force us to move to Vista, which many company's simply cant do since the software that runs our businesses simply doesnt work on Vista.
Sounds to me more like Sony giving up on XP more than MS. Particularily considering that MS is still ofering support for XP which includes driver changes updates and patches. However, it is not MS responsibility to make sure that every piece of new laptop hardware works with XP, that would be upto the ones making the hardware. ie Sony
Umm.. I don't know where you got that but FYI, there's a Service Pack 3 coming for Windows XP. Some people are just so reckless when their opinions, sigh...
They're losing market share at wholesale rates. Perhaps if they offered those same rates to individuals, it would help?
I switched, and I've taken like 10 people with me and counting. Money is not an object when it never gets involved in the first place.
the staff that get to 'pick' their laptop, although they have to
wait for their 'turn' in the budget, have selected Mac laptops. I'm
somewhat surprised, but only somewhat. In the mid-level
laptop market, prices are pretty much the same for a Mac or PC
laptop. Vista is touted as being more secure, but it's not
escaped at least 50% of the potential market that it's only more
secure because it is constantly being exploited and has to come
out with faster security fixes weekly. We fully expect that
somewhere the Mac may be as susceptible, so we preach non-
complacency; but the fact is, for now, they are much easier to
manage from a security aspect. So the statistics of Vista being
so secure is really just an indication that they have a bigger and
more active 'brute squad' whereas the smaller players, Linux
and Mac OS, don't need that big and resource hungry a squad
of brutes to protect them. At least for now.