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When it comes to divining the future, only a sucker or a veritable oracle would dare handicap that burgeoning geopolitical rivalry. Ignoring my own warning, let me try to give it a shot.
The conventional wisdom is that the Middle Kingdom is the rabbit in this race, destined to leave the tortoise that is India in the dust. At first blush, that sounds like the more plausible outcome.
Clearly, China's post-Mao transformation is the story of post-war economic history. The nation's economy has grown more than 7 percent annually for the last couple of decades. China's emergence as a manufacturer of high-tech goods is equally impressive with a roster of companies featuring the likes of Lenovo, Baidu.com and Huawei Technologies. But China's hyper-growth has disguised several increasingly pronounced blemishes.
After spending nearly a month traveling throughout China, a friend wrote me how hard it was for a visitor to comprehend the magnitude of all one encounters.
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"The multitudes of people, the size of their building projects, and the sheer audacity of their vision to transform this country into a mega-powerhouse," the friend wrote. "What do you do with an infrastructure that is developing so rapidly, that there are more than 160 cities with populations over 1 million each and no fewer than 10 cities with populations over 10 million?"
Talk about an understatement. That mind-numbing question is as big as all of China.
He also could have added that almost 15 million people in China each year move from the countryside to the cities. With so vast a population in transition, the absence of a safety net carries with it the ever-present potential for social unrest.
So far, things have worked out. After Deng Xiaoping came to power following Mao's death in 1976, the government made a covenant with the rising entrepreneurial class. To put it simply, it went like this: "We'll let you get rich, but leave the politics to us." Of course, the state has had to deal with occasional turbulence, such as the rebellion at Tiananmen or the northwestern province of Xinjiang.
But these rate as momentary detours on an otherwise unimpeded march toward superpower status. Meanwhile, India has had its own issues. The state doesn't invest enough in vital infrastructure while it spends too much money subsidizing agriculture.
"China's invested more in infrastructure than India, which is in a big catch-up situation," said Michael Spence of Stanford University, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001. "If they don't do that, they won't grow at the rates being projected."
Nobody knows whether India's leadership will act on that warning. But if I were a betting man, I'd say there's a lot to like here.
For all the mess that is India, it's still one heck of a productive mess. In its latest five-year plan, the country forecast average growth accelerating from 9 percent to more than 10 percent. That's a breathtaking climb. And consider the following: In 2002, the country's annual GDP growth was lower than that of China, Vietnam, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Bangladesh. Within a year, India had closed to No. 2 behind China, largely on the strength of its emerging IT and business process outsourcing sectors.
India also reaps benefits from an excellent educational system that's generated thousands of graduates who work for overseas American corporations.
Above all, India's political power doesn't emanate from the barrel of a gun. On Tuesday, the U.S. statement included China with the likes of Iran, Zimbabwe, Cuba, North Korea and Myanmar as a country where human rights protections routinely get violated. Compare that with India.
The system may sometimes be raucous and inefficient, but it remains the world's largest functioning democracy. That counts for a lot and helps feed into a touchy-feely attribute that can't be measured like a dry economic input.
Spence summed it up this way: It has a lot to do with a sense of optimism and momentum, a feeling that today will be better than yesterday and tomorrow will be better than today. It's a very American way to explain India's phenomenal growth, but I think it helps fill in some of the gaps. In China, you can dream of being rich, but it then behooves you to keep your opinions to yourself. The average Indian can also dream about making her fortune--and then figure out how to apply those lessons to building a better society.
What could be more Indian? What could be more American?
Biography
Charles Cooper is CNET News.com's executive editor of commentary.
See more CNET content tagged:
India, China, infrastructure, population, city
No don't take that seriously its called "tounge in cheek" Its basic economics advanced economys consume resources/ basic commodities from resource rich emerging economys untill they get so broke that the devolve back into an emerging economy or Einstiens 3rd world war breaks out. My moneys on that outcome I got a plot of land with a little forest and nice quarry, I reckon I will corner the market on sticks and stones.
No don't take that seriously its called "tounge in cheek" Its basic economics advanced economys consume resources/ basic commodities from resource rich emerging economys untill they get so broke that the devolve back into an emerging economy or Einstiens 3rd world war breaks out. My moneys on that outcome I got a plot of land with a little forest and nice quarry, I reckon I will corner the market on sticks and stones.
What could be more Indian? What could be more American?>
I hope she just doesn't dream. She and the millions like her should actually do something to better society. Only then will India prevail.
What could be more Indian? What could be more American?>
I hope she just doesn't dream. She and the millions like her should actually do something to better society. Only then will India prevail.
Neither country can feed itself without massive imports. Neither has significant natural resources to sustain production within their economies. Both countries have chronic, severe and worsening water shortages.
Both countries are severally overpopulated with no relief in sight.
Currency re-valuation and rising energy cost will hobble China. Poverty, over-population and lack of water will keep India down for the foreseeable future.
Just ask Japan how it goes for you when you re great at manufacturing but have insufficient natural resources. 20 years of stagnation. And counting..
Neither country can feed itself without massive imports. Neither has significant natural resources to sustain production within their economies. Both countries have chronic, severe and worsening water shortages.
Both countries are severally overpopulated with no relief in sight.
Currency re-valuation and rising energy cost will hobble China. Poverty, over-population and lack of water will keep India down for the foreseeable future.
Just ask Japan how it goes for you when you re great at manufacturing but have insufficient natural resources. 20 years of stagnation. And counting..
Roads, Airports, Hospitals, Energy, Corruption, Pollution.........the list goes on.
It gets rich by creating investment oportunities for the wealthy and skimming the cream off the top.
I has always worked that way, and nothing else has ever worked.
Roads, Airports, Hospitals, Energy, Corruption, Pollution.........the list goes on.
It gets rich by creating investment oportunities for the wealthy and skimming the cream off the top.
I has always worked that way, and nothing else has ever worked.
Further, while India is full of poor people it is also full of middle class people. India's middle class is larger then America's entire population.
Further, while India is full of poor people it is also full of middle class people. India's middle class is larger then America's entire population.
Most importantly, China has seized the opportunity of being the world's manufacturer left open by Japan and Korea (due to the rising labor costs) in the 1980's. Today, it would be hard for India or other 3rd world country to take over it, not until Chinese labor wage go up significantly, but there are 1 billion laborers in China.
That also mean China's business model is more diversified and much larger than that of India.
When I was in China, I met many Indian people over there, all for procuring Chinese products.
- India's too late
- by hackingbear March 7, 2007 10:50 AM PST
- India has an edge in IT only because of the use of English as the national language, thanks to the Briton. However, for the same reason, India cannot take IT projects from Japan, Korea, Taiwan which are now all go to China. And China has developed a highly successful Internet economy.
- Like this Reply to this comment
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Showing 1 of 5 pages (185 Comments)Most importantly, China has seized the opportunity of being the world's manufacturer left open by Japan and Korea (due to the rising labor costs) in the 1980's. Today, it would be hard for India or other 3rd world country to take over it, not until Chinese labor wage go up significantly, but there are 1 billion laborers in China.
That also mean China's business model is more diversified and much larger than that of India.
When I was in China, I met many Indian people over there, all for procuring Chinese products.